Labour market outliers: Lessons from Portugal and Spain

Spain has the highest unemployment rate (22.2%) of any European Union country, Portugal one of the lowest (7.3%). Superficially, these countries share many labour market features: the toughest job security rules in the OECD, an apparently similar architecture of wage bargaining, and comparable generosity of their unemployment insurance systems, at least since 1989. We address the puzzle by examining Portuguese and Spanish labour market institutions, in particular job security, unemployment benefits and the system of wage bargaining. We then conduct empirical analysis of Spanish and Portuguese unemployment outflows and wage distributions, using micro data. We find differences in unemployment benefits (non-existent in Portugal until 1985, and less generous nowadays), differences in wage flexibility (wage floors by category established by collective agreements are set at a lower relative level in Portugal), and, in practice, higher firing costs in Spain. A key explanation of the difference in Portuguese and Spanish unemployment rates is the wage adjustment process. Generous benefit levels may have been necessary for the path Spanish unions took, but this was not the sole explanation of different wage setting in Spain and Portugal.     

Regional migration in Spain: the effect of personal characteristics and of unemployment,wage and house price differentials using pooled cross-sections

We present an empirical model of individual migration using time-series of cross-sections from the Spanish Labour Force Surveys 1987–1991. Personal characteristics not only have an important direct effect on migration decisions but also alter the effect of regional variables. We find that the estimated probability of migration for the unemployed not registered, who are known for certain not to receive benefit, is higher than that of the employed which in turn is higher than that of the unemployed registered, which includes all the benefits recipients. An important finding is that the effect of regional unemployment on migration is positive for the unemployed not registered but is important and negative for those registered.     

Are there economies of scale in the demand for money by firms? Some panel data estimates

We estimate elasticities of scale in the demand for money by firms using firm level panel data from Spain, the UK, and the US. This elasticity is one for Spain and the UK but smaller for the US. We find that the errors in the money demand equations contain two terms that are correlated with sales. Firstly, a permanent firm effect that captures differences in technological sophistication. Secondly, a measurement error in sales, which becomes relevant when relying on changes in sales to account for fixed effects. Failure to control for these correlated unobservable terms results in important biases in the estimated sales elasticities.     

WEALTH INEQUALITY AND HOUSEHOLD STRUCTURE: U.S. VS. SPAIN

We study the link between culturally inherited household structure and wealth distribution in international comparisons using household data for the U.S. and Spain (the SCF and the EFF). We estimate counterfactual U.S. distributions relying on the Spanish household structure. Our results show that differences in household structure account for most of the differences in the lower part of the distribution between the two countries, but mask even larger differences in the upper part of the distribution. Imposing the Spanish household structure to the U.S. wealth distribution has little effect on the Gini coefficient and wealth top shares. However, this is the net result of reduced differences at the bottom and increased differences at the top. So there is distinct additional information in considering the whole distribution. Finally, we present results for the within‐group differences between the two countries using quantile regressions and find a reversing pattern by age.     

Drawdowns preceding rallies in the Brownian motion model

We study drawdowns and rallies of Brownian motion. A rally is defined as the difference of the present value of the Brownian motion and its historical minimum, while the drawdown is defined as the difference of the historical maximum and its present value. This paper determines the probability that a drawdown of a units precedes a rally of b units. We apply this result to examine stock market crashes and rallies in the geometric Brownian motion model.