FUTURES MARKET EFFICIENCY,THE UNBIASEDNESS HYPOTHESIS AND VARIANCE-BOUNDS TESTS: THE CASE OF THE FTSE-100 FUTURES CONTRACT*

The efficiency of futures markets is critical to their price discovery role. This paper investigates the joint hypothesis of market efficiency and unbiasedness of futures prices for the FTSE-100 stock index futures contract. Unlike previous studies, it tests for both long-run and short-run efficiency using cointegration and error correction models. Variance-bounds tests are developed and utilized for examining the question of efficiency. Results show that the market is efficient and provides an unbiased estimate of future spot prices for one and two months away from expiration. However, for three and more months away from expiration this is not the case, which has implications for the users of this market.     

Local Public Corruption and Bank Lending Activity in the United States

Using a conviction-based measure, we find that local (state-level) public corruption exerts a negative effect on the lending activity of US banks. Our baseline estimations show that the difference in public corruption between, for example, Alabama, where corruption is high, and Minnesota, where corruption is low, implies that banks headquartered in the former state grant 0.55% less credit (or $3.52 million for the average bank) ceteris paribus. Using proxies for relationship lending and monitoring, we also find that these bank characteristics weaken the negative effect of public corruption on lending. These results are robust to tests that address endogeneity, to the use of perception-based measures of corruption, and after controlling for credit demand conditions. In further analysis, we show that these effects are more evident for smaller banks and banks operating in a single state. These findings provide evidence that public corruption could facilitate information asymmetry in the lending market and, thus, could hinder local development by reducing bank credit.

     

How ICT affects economic growth in the Euro area during the economic crisis

NETNOMICS: Economic Research and Electronic Networking - The financial and economic crisis in Europe highlighted issues related to the competitiveness of member states, as well as the importance of...     

The spatial component of R&D networks

We study the role of geography in R&D networks by means of a quantitative, micro-geographic approach. Using a large database that covers international R&D collaborations from 1984 to 2009, we localize each actor precisely in space through its latitude and longitude. This allows us to analyze the R&D network at all geographic scales simultaneously. Our empirical results show that despite the high importance of the city level, transnational R&D collaborations at large distances are much more frequent than expected from similar networks. This provides evidence for the ambiguity of distance in economic collaboration which is also suggested by the existing literature. In addition we test whether the hypothesis of local buzz and global pipelines applies to the observed R&D network by calculating well-defined metrics from network theory.     

How Much Is Too Much: Are Merger Premiums Too High?

Is it too much to pay target firm shareholders a 50% premium on top of market price? Or is it too much to pay a 100% premium when pursuing mergers and acquisitions? How much is too much? In this paper, we examine how the extent of merger premiums paid impacts both the long‐run and announcement period stock returns of acquiring firms. We find no evidence that acquirers paying high premiums underperform those paying relatively low premiums in three years following mergers, and the result is robust after controlling for a variety of firm and deal characteristics. Short term cumulative abnormal returns are moreover positively correlated to the level of the premium paid by acquirers. Our evidence therefore suggests that high merger premiums paid are unlikely to be responsible for acquirers' long‐run post merger underperformance.     

Firm characteristics that drive the momentum pattern in the UK stock market

Previous studies have estimated the company characteristics of previous winners and losers to explore the momentum effect. Using UK data, this study focuses on the characteristics of companies that actually generate the momentum pattern. These are previous winners who keep performing well (WW) and past losers who consistently perform poorly (LL). This study illustrates that WW and LL firms may exhibit market-based characteristics similar to those of young, low-priced, small capitalisation companies, but that there are significant differences. Accounting and fundamental signals (e.g. profitability, value/growth) tend to distinguish winners from losers. Based on firm characteristics, we further develop investment strategies that can outperform significantly the profitability of the momentum strategy.     

Market Efficiency, Thin Trading and Non-linear Behaviour: Evidence from an Emerging Market

Emerging markets efficiency has been widely investigated, with mixed results. However such evidence is only reliable if the methodology adopted accounts for the institutional features of the market. Unlike previous studies this paper corrects for thin trading and incorporates possible non-linear behaviour and regulatory changes. Using Istanbul Stock Exchange data we show that in its early years the exchange was characterised by non-linear behaviour and inefficient pricing. However, regulatory changes encouraged participation, improved information quality and led to prices impounding information more rapidly, suggesting markets become efficient with high trading volume, reliable information and an appropriate institutional framework.     

The Determinants of Debt Maturity Structure: Evidence from France,Germany and the UK

We examine the determinants of the debt maturity structure of French, German and British firms. These countries represent different financial and legal traditions that may have implications on corporate debt maturity structure. Our model incorporates the factors representing three major theories (tax considerations, liquidity and signalling, and contracting costs) of debt maturity. It also controls for capital market conditions. The results confirm the applicability of most theories of debt maturity structure for the UK firms. However, the evidence from France and Germany are mixed. Overall the findings suggest that the debt maturity structure of a firm is determined by firm‐specific factors and the country's financial systems and institutional traditions in which it operates.     

Which Targets Stimulate Cross-border Acquisitions? An Empirical Investigation of Industrial Organization and Trade Factors within a Competition Framework of International and Domestic Acquisition Targets

This paper provides new evidence on the determinants affecting cross-border acquisitions in a small open economy such as that of Greece. Specifically, our paper tests two sets of hypotheses: Firstly, factors stemming from industrial organization (IO) theory, such as market structure indicators of takeover targets, positively affect the decision of a foreign Transnational Corporation (TNC) to enact a takeover in Greece. Secondly, factors stemming from integration and trade theory, such as openness of targets, increase their significance in the development of international takeovers, due to the active participation of the country in the European integration process. Using a statistical model of “international vs. national targets” and an original data set of 229 targets during the 1989–1998 period, the paper finds, most importantly, that market structure indicators such as market share of targets have a positive effect on the acquisition decision of foreign TNCs. Also, some control variables such as firm size and liquidity of targets are found to be statistically significant. This specific pattern of foreign target characteristics is because cross-border acquisitions, which have been emerging as a new generation of FDI after the integration of Greece into the European Union (EU), are surprisingly still inclined to prefer the market-seeking motive to the efficiency-seeking motive.

The J-curve Revisited: An Empirical Analysis for Canada

This paper examines exchange rate and trade data to determine whether J-curve effects have occurred for Canada in recent history. With a unique set of data on import and export volumes, the response of the trade balance and its components to exchange rate changes are determined empirically over 1981:1–2005:12 through impulse response functions. The responses have taken into account dominant long-run feedback effects, where the long-run parameters have been estimated by the Johansen cointegration technique. The results show the J-curve phenomenon does not exist for Canada. Robustness checks show the results do not change when looking at the responses over the pre-NAFTA and NAFTA periods.