Abnormal Returns from Takeover Prediction Modelling: Challenges and Suggested Investment Strategies

While takeover targets earn significant abnormal returns, studies tend to find no abnormal returns from investing in predicted takeover targets. In this study, we show that the difficulty of correctly identifying targets ex ante does not fully explain the below‐expected returns to target portfolios. Target prediction models’ inability to optimally time impending takeovers, by taking account of pre‐bid target underperformance and the anticipation of potential targets by other market participants, diminishes but does not eliminate the potential profitability of investing in predicted targets. Importantly, we find that target portfolios are predisposed to underperform, as targets and distressed firms share common firm characteristics, resulting in the misclassification of a disproportionately high number of distressed firms as potential targets. We show that this problem can be mitigated, and significant risk‐adjusted returns can be earned, by screening firms in target portfolios for size, leverage and liquidity.     

A Micro-Approach for Testing Marx's LTRPF: Evidence from Greece, 2000 and 2009

This article develops a novel micro-approach for the empirical evaluation of Marx's law of the tendency of the rate of profit to fall. Contrary to the traditional method which uses national macroeconomic data, this approach utilises data taken directly from company reports and accounts. The principal advantage of this approach is that it provides an accurate measurement of the value composition of capital, devoid of the measurement limitations of the traditional method regarding variable capital which stem from the inability to distinguish productive from unproductive labour. A disadvantage, however, is that this approach does not cover the entire national economy. The application of the proposed micro-approach to the ongoing Greek crisis yields results which are congruent with the traditional method and reinforce other recent studies linking the current crisis with low profitability.     

Can small investors exploit the momentum effect?

This study uses UK data and investigates whether small investors can exploit the continuation effect in share prices. Individual traders are not in a financial position to buy and sell short hundreds of firms, as suggested by existing academic research, and thus this study uses extreme performance companies to implement the strategy. We find that strong momentum gains appear when extreme winners and losers are employed. These returns remain strong even after considering the transaction costs of implementing such strategies, including commissions, stamp duty, selling-short costs, and bid-ask spread. Overall, we show that a relatively large number of small investors can enjoy momentum gains, providing some evidence against stock market efficiency.     

GROWTH AND VARIABILITY OF SCHOOL DISTRICT INCOME TAX REVENUES: IS TAX BASE DIVERSIFICATION A GOOD IDEA FOR SCHOOL FINANCING?

School districts in Ohio have the option of diversifying their revenue base by adopting income taxes. Using a panel of Ohio school districts that adopted a local income tax from 1990 to 2008, we find that revenues are procyclical and fluctuate only mildly. The estimated short‐ and long‐run income elasticity of school district income tax revenues is 1.05 and 1.04, respectively. We also find that the school district tax base fully adjusts to its long‐run equilibrium within 2 years. Finally, we show that school district income tax adoption does not provide more stability to total school district tax revenues in the short or the long run. (JEL H71, H75)     

Bidder Gains and Losses of Firms Involved in Many Acquisitions

Abstract:  We examine shareholders' wealth effects (both in the short- and the long-run) of UK frequent bidders acquiring public, private, and/or subsidiary targets with alternative methods of payment between 1987 and 2004. We find that, in the short-run, bidders break even when acquiring public targets and gain significantly when buying private and subsidiary targets. This result is robust after controlling for relative size, bidder's book-to-market ratio, target origin, and industry diversification. Our long-run evidence, however, reveals that acquirers experience, significant wealth losses regardless of the target type acquired, indicating that markets may initially overreact to the acquisition announcement. As a result, we argue that contrary to Fuller et al. (2002) who suggest that acquiring private and subsidiary firms creates value for bidding firms, a reliable conclusion on bidders' shareholders wealth effects cannot be based solely on a short-run event study.     

When Feedback Interventions Backfire: Why Higher Performance Feedback May Result in Lower Self‐Perceived Competence and Satisfaction with Performance

In relative performance evaluation systems, appraisers may choose to adopt stricter or laxer evaluation criteria. When laxer (vs. stricter) criteria are used, higher absolute performance evaluations become easier (vs. harder) to achieve. Thus, each appraisee's absolute performance feedback and the mean of the distribution of absolute performance feedback are shifted upward (vs. downward). Yet, relative performance remains constant. When evaluation outcomes depend solely on relative performance, can the adoption of laxer (vs. stricter) criteria—leading to higher absolute performance feedback but no change in relative performance—influence appraisees’ satisfaction with performance? Despite the ubiquity of such systems in organizations, research has not addressed this question. This article points to an important gap between practitioners’ beliefs and research findings. We show that while most appraisers believe that higher absolute performance feedback will automatically result in more satisfaction with performance, the opposite may also happen. Specifically, we find that appraisees with a stronger (vs. weaker) chronic or contextual need to engage in social comparison are more satisfied with lower (vs. higher) absolute performance feedback. Overall, we demonstrate why and how feedback interventions in relative performance evaluation systems may backfire, and suggest a set of practical guidelines for maximizing appraisees’ satisfaction with performance in such systems. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

Profitability of momentum strategies in international markets: The role of business cycle variables and behavioural biases

The paper investigates whether business cycle variables and behavioural biases can explain the profitability of momentum trading in three major European markets. Unlike previous studies, the paper nests both risk-based and behavioural-based variables in a two-stage model specification in an attempt to explain momentum profits. The findings show that, although momentum profitability in European markets is unexplained by conditional asset pricing models, it is attributable to asset mispricing that systematically varies with global business conditions. In addition, behavioural variables do not appear to matter much. Thus risk factors, which are undetected thus far and are largely attributable to the business cycle, could explain the momentum payoffs in European stock markets.     

The value of in-person banking: evidence from U.S. small businesses

Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting - We produce the first systematic study of the determinants and implications of in-person banking. Using survey data from the U.S., we show that firms...