Default premia on European government debt

Default Premia on European Government Debt. — This paper addresses the question of the existence and size of a risk premium in the Eurobond market. We measure the yield difference between German government bonds and bonds issued in Deutsche Mark by several European countries. The results are regressed against macroeconomic variables supposed to be determinants of the risk of default on government debt. Our yield differences are smaller than those found between US states. However, some of our macroeconomic variables seem to be good predictors of yield differentials. A conclusion is that yield differentials partially are related to risks perceived by market participants.     

WHAT DO WE KNOW ABOUT STOCK REPURCHASES?

Stock repurchases by U.S. companies experienced a remarkable surge in the 1980s and ‘90s. Indeed, in 1998, the total value of all stock repurchased by U.S. companies exceeded for the first time the total amount paid out as cash dividends. And the U.S. repurchase movement has gone global in the past few years, spreading not only to Canada and the U.K., but also to countries like Japan and Germany, where such transactions were prohibited until recently. Why are companies buying back their stock in such amounts? After dismissing the popular argument that stock repurchases boost earnings per share, the authors argue that repurchases serve to add value in two main ways: (1) they provide managers with a tax‐efficient means of returning excess capital to shareholders and (2) they allow managers to “signal” to investors their view that the firm is undervalued. Returning excess capital is value‐adding for two reasons: First, it helps prevent companies from pursuing growth and size at the expense of profitability and value. Second, by returning capital to investors, repurchases (like dividends) play the critically important economic function of allowing investors to channel their investment from mature or declining sectors of the economy to more promising ones. But if stock repurchases and dividends serve the same basic economic function, why are repurchases growing more rapidly? Part of the explanation is that, because repurchases are taxed as capital gains and dividends as ordinary income, repurchases are a more tax‐efficient way of distributing excess capital. But perhaps even more important than their tax treatment is the flexibility that (at least) open market repurchases provide corporate managers‐flexibility to make small adjustments in capital structure, to exploit (or correct) perceived undervaluation of the firm's shares, and possibly even to increase the liquidity of the stock, which could be particularly valuable in bear markets. For U.S. regulators, the growth in open market stock repurchases raises some interesting issues. Perhaps most important, companies are not required to (and rarely do) furnish their investors with details about a given program's structure, execution method, number of shares repurchased, or even its duration. Policy regulators (and corporate executives as well) should consider some of the benefits provided by other systems, notably Canada's, which provide greater transparency and more guidelines for the repurchase process.     

The Interaction between Internal Control Assessment and Substantive Testing in Audits for Fraud*

We examine the interaction between internal control assessments and substantive testing in a model of fraud detection. The purpose of our study is to examine a two‐stage model of the auditor‐manager interaction in which the auditor assesses the “likelihood” or possibility of fraud in the first stage and conducts substantive tests in the second stage. We examine the allocation of audit resources across these two distinct facets of the audit. We find that, regardless of the auditor's allocation, the probability of undetected fraud remains the same, but the allocation of some audit resources to internal control assessment may provide cost savings for the auditor.     

Sequential Procurement With Subcontracting

Two symmetric sellers are approached sequentially by fragmented buyers. Each buyer conducts a second-price auction and purchases from the seller who offers the lower price. Winning an auction affects bidding for future contracts because the sellers have nonconstant marginal costs. We assume that the sellers are completely informed, and we study the unique equilibrium that survives iterated elimination of weakly dominated strategies. If subcontracting between the sellers is impossible, the final allocation of contracts is generally inefficient. If postauction subcontracting is possible, the sellers can be worse off, ex ante , than when subcontracting is impossible.     

Integration of International Long-Term Interest Rates: A Fractional Cointegration Analysis

In this study, we re-examine the relationship among interest rates on the long-term government bonds of five industrialized countries. Using both the variance ratio test and fractional cointegration analysis, we find significant evidence that indicates the five government bond rates are fractionally cointegrated. In specific, our results show that the error correction term of the system of the five interest rates follows a mean-reverting, fractionally integrated process.     

Cow-calf profitability and leptin genotyping

Profitability of cow-calf production is determined largely by market prices, calf weaning weights, and cow productive life. While producers individually have no effect on prices, weaning weights and productive life have genetic influences and hence can be altered by selection programs implemented by producers. We investigate the impact of a mutation in the leptin gene (exon 2; single nucleotide polymorphism [SNP] 305) on cow-calf profitability. Prior research shows that this mutation has effects on performance and traits of fed cattle and milk production in dairy cows. Using data from a teaching-research herd, we find that it is also associated with calf weaning weights and cow productive life. A bio-economic stochastic simulation demonstrates that the mutation has statistically positive impacts on profits, suggesting that producers can profitably make use of this information.     

Genre and Postemergency Contexts: The Nexus of Strategic Communications

This article explores why organizations choose to enact public relations discourse genres after an emergency situation —organizational crises, disasters, and issues—has been resolved. In the aftermath of emergency situations, we argue that organizational communicators employ discourse messages according to five governing “commitments,” which corporate officials use to shape postemergency messages the way they do. This essay, then, is not so much a retrospective analysis of what happened in selected emergency situations but, rather, is more a prospective explanation about how to use these five governing commitments when anticipating emergencies that could happen. Organizational learning and organizational renewal are addressed accordingly. In this argument we draw upon literature in linguistics, rhetorical theory, and organization studies. Examples of postemergency situations are used to bridge theory and practice to show how what was done retrospectively can be done prospectively to prepare for communication during postemergency contexts.     

Systematic social observation of police decision-making: the process, logistics, and challenges in a Canadian context

Research on police decision-making and the use of discretion predominantly relies on official records or qualitative interview and participant observation data. Pioneered by Albert J. Reiss, Jr. in the 1960s, systematic social observation is a field research method simultaneously gathering quantitative and qualitative data in a natural setting. Data collection procedures are stipulated in advance reducing bias and allowing for scientific inference, replication, and measurable process outcomes as the observations recorded are independent of the observer. Although three large scale studies have been conducted in the United States to understand police behaviour, this ‘gold standard’ is used infrequently due to methodological challenges in an applied setting. The current research is the first sole observer and non-U.S. study conducted with a Canadian regional police service. Discussion of methodological innovation, challenges, and process are based on the experience of collecting data on 406 police–citizen encounters involving 568 citizens over 637 observational hours. To assist future researchers, the method and data collection using modified instruments as well as the challenges of resources, police cooperation, bias, reactivity, field role, and dynamics of conducting research as a female in an insular, male-dominated setting are explored.     

Why has Europe Become Environmentally Cleaner? Decomposing the Roles of Fiscal,Trade and Environmental Policies

This paper examines the role of fiscal policy, trade and energy taxes on environmental quality in Europe using disaggregated data at the monitoring station level for the 12 richest European countries spanning the period from 1995 to 2008. Our estimations show that fiscal policies and energy taxes are important determinants of pollution through various mechanisms. We find that increasing the share of fiscal spending in GDP and shifting the emphasis towards spending in public goods and against non-social subsidies significantly lower the concentrations of sulfur dioxide and ozone but not nitrogen dioxide. At the same time, energy taxes reduce nitrogen dioxide concentrations but have no effect on ozone and sulfur dioxide. Finally trade openness has a direct effect on sulfur dioxide but no effect on nitrogen dioxide or ozone. Our estimates account for time-varying unobserved heterogeneity.