Avoid the four perils of CRM

Customer relationship management is one of the hottest management tools today. But more than half of all CRM initiatives fail to produce the anticipated results. Why? And what can companies do to reverse that negative trend? The authors--three senior Bain consultants--have spent the past ten years analyzing customer-loyalty initiatives, both successful and unsuccessful, at more than 200 companies in a wide range of industries. They've found that CRM backfires in part because executives don't understand what they are implementing, let alone how much it will cost or how long it will take. The authors' research unveiled four common pitfalls that managers stumble into when trying to implement CRM. Each pitfall is a consequence of a single flawed assumption--that CRM is software that will automatically manage customer relationships. It isn't. Rather, CRM is the creation of customer strategies and processes to build customer loyalty, which are then supported by the technology. This article looks at best practices in CRM at several companies, including the New York Times Company, Square D, GE Capital, Grand Expeditions, and BMC Software. It provides an intellectual framework for any company that wants to start a CRM program or turn around a failing one.     

Localization--the revolution in consumer markets

Standardization has been a powerful strategy in consumer markets, but it's reached the point of diminishing returns. And diversity is not the only chink in standardization's armor: Attempts to build stores in the remaining attractive locations often meet fierce resistance from community activists. From California to Florida to New Jersey, neighborhoods are passing ordinances that dictate the sizes and even architectural styles of new shops. Building more of the same--long the cornerstone of retailer growth--seems to be tapped out as a strategy. Of course, a company can't customize every element of its business in every location. Strategists have begun to use clustering techniques to simplify and smooth out decision making and to focus their efforts on the relatively small number of variables that usually drive the bulk of consumer purchases. The customization-by-clusters approach, which began as a strategy for grocery stores in 1995, has since proven effective in drugstores, department stores, mass merchants, big-box retailers, restaurants, apparel companies, and a variety of consumer goods manufacturers. Clustering sorts things into groups, so that the associations are strong between members of the same cluster and weak between members of different clusters. In fact, by centralizing data-intensive and scale-sensitive functions (such as store design, merchandise assortment, buying, and supply chain management), localization liberates store personnel to do what they do best: Test innovative solutions to local challenges and forge strong bonds with communities. Ultimately, all companies serving consumers will face the challenge of local customization. We are advancing to a world where the strategies of the most successful businesses will be as diverse as the communities they serve.     

Multi-period corporate default prediction with stochastic covariates

We provide maximum likelihood estimators of term structures of conditional probabilities of corporate default, incorporating the dynamics of firm-specific and macroeconomic covariates. For US Industrial firms, based on over 390,000 firm-months of data spanning 1980 to 2004, the term structure of conditional future default probabilities depends on a firm's distance to default (a volatility-adjusted measure of leverage), on the firm's trailing stock return, on trailing S&P 500 returns, and on US interest rates. The out-of-sample predictive performance of the model is an improvement over that of other available models.     

A YIELD-FACTOR MODEL OF INTEREST RATES

This paper presents a consistent and arbitrage-free multifactor model of the term structure of interest rates in which yields at selected fixed maturities follow a parametric muitivariate Markov diffusion process with "stochastic volatility." the yield of any zero-coupon bond is taken to be a maturity-dependent affine combination of the selected "basis" set of yields. We provide necessary and sufficient conditions on the stochastic model for this affine representation. We include numerical techniques for solving the model, as well as numerical techniques for calculating the prices of term-structure derivative prices. the case of jump diffusions is also considered.     

A multiobjective model for the selection and timing of public enterprise projects

In theory, a public utility company improves the quality of community life through its projects and actions. However, project selection and prioritization by these companies are highly complex processes. To assist company planning managers in such processes, we propose a mixed integer programming model that selects, from a bank of projects, which are worthy of investment. The question of timing is also addressed. The model maximizes a weighted sum of normalized economic and financial net present values and a social impact index. It simultaneously satisfies a set of precedence relations among projects, the earliest and latest project start dates, exogenous budget limits, and endogenous project cash flow generation. We illustrate the model's effectiveness using an example constructed from a case study of a major Latin American water and sewage company.     

The Preparation and Professionalization of Economics Instructors in Two-Year Colleges

With the rapid growth of two-year colleges and the probability that an increasing proportion of students will get their introductory economics in these institutions comes a natural concern over the quality of instruction found therein. Lewis reviews three surveys dealing with the preparation of junior college teachers of economics, offers explanations for the dearth of well-trained economists in the two-year colleges, and suggests ways of meeting the special needs of junior college teachers. He calls for both pre-service and in-service training programs designed to upgrade the teaching of economics in the two-year colleges.     

Student Evaluations of Teaching and the Cognitive Level of Economics Courses

The Journal of Economic Education of Fall 1973 was devoted to the subject of student evaluations of teachers. That issue has engendered a great many papers, only a few of which can be published in the JEE because of space limitations. Michael Everett's report is not a mere replication of previous research on the subject, but adds a new dimension—the possible effect of student evaluations on the cognitive level of college economics courses. His finding that students may favor professors who emphasize lower level cognitive material will surely be distressing to many teachers, and should cause sober reflection on the part of administrators and others involved in establishing faculty evaluation procedures and policies.     

Modeling term structures of defaultable bonds

This article presents convenient reduced-form models of thevaluation of contingent claims subject to default risk, focusingon applications to the term structure of interest rates forcorporate or sovereign bonds. Examples include the valuationof a credit-spread option.