Forecasting and turning point predictions in a Bayesian panel VAR model

We provide methods for forecasting variables and predicting turning points in panel Bayesian VARs. We specify a flexible model, which accounts for both interdependencies in the cross section and time variations in the parameters. Posterior distributions for the parameters are obtained for hierarchical and for Minnesota-type priors. Formulas for multistep, multiunit point and average forecasts are provided. An application to the problem of forecasting the growth rate of output and of predicting turning points in the G-7 illustrates the approach. A comparison with alternative forecasting methods is also provided.     

Once NEET,always NEET? A synthetic panel approach to analyze the Moroccan labor market

In many regions of the world, the persistent, and growing, proportion of young people who are currently Not in Employment, Education or Training—a group increasingly referred to as NEET—is of global concern. This is no less true of Morocco: about 30% of the Moroccan population between age 15 and 24 are currently NEET. Drawing from various rounds of Moroccan Labor Force Surveys, this paper contributes to understanding the complex dynamics of labor markets in developing countries. First, it identifies the socioeconomic determinants of Morocco's NEETs. Second, employing a synthetic panel (SP) methodology in the context of labor market analysis, the paper describes how the condition of NEETs changes over time. One striking, and worrisome, pattern that emerges from the 2010 SP data is that, even after 8 years, a majority of the NEETs remained outside either the labor market or education, with very little chance of moving out of their situation. Their chronic stagnancy confirms the powerful effect that initial conditions have on determining young people's future outcomes. It also highlights the absence of corrective mechanisms and policy interventions within the Moroccan political economy landscape that could help to change NEETs' outcomes along the line.     

Testing for the Presence of Financial Constraints in US Agricultural Cooperatives: An Investment Behaviour Approach

This study examines the presence of financial constraints in US agricultural cooperatives. We test the cooperative capital constraint hypothesis with a panel data econometric analysis of agricultural cooperatives’ investment behaviour. Regression results suggest that agricultural cooperatives’ capital expenditures are significantly affected by the availability of internal funds. Results also indicate that the sensitivity of investment to cash flow is correlated with cooperative structural characteristics.     

Business cycle measurement with some theory

A method to evaluate cyclical models not requiring knowledge of the DGP and the exact specification of the aggregate decision rules is proposed. We derive robust restrictions in a class of models; use some to identify structural shocks in the data and others to evaluate the class or contrast sub-models. The approach has good properties, even in small samples, and when the class of models is misspecified. The method is used to sort out the relevance of a certain friction (the presence of rule-of-thumb consumers) in a standard class of models.     

Growth and social capital: an evolutionary model

In this paper, we analyze the role of cooperation between firms through a model of growth and social capital. In a growth model à la Solow we incorporate the set of resources that a relational network has at its disposals, as a distinct production factor, and thus examine its dissemination through evolutionary type processes in firm interactions. Dynamic analysis of the model demonstrates that cooperation is able to increase the productivity of factors, fostering a higher rate of growth in the long term. The most significant result is that scarcity of social capital can produce a general collapse of the economic system in areas in which long term growth is usually sustained by the learning by doing and spillover of knowledge phenomena. This conclusion leads to reconsider the role of local development economic policies that should concentrate on activities that promote repeated interaction between firms proven to be cooperative or that encourage the formation of technological consortia.     

Multivariate contemporaneous-threshold autoregressive models

This paper proposes a contemporaneous-threshold multivariate smooth transition autoregressive (C-MSTAR) model in which the regime weights depend on the ex-ante probabilities that latent regime-specific variables exceed certain threshold values. A key feature of the model is that the transition function depends on all the parameters of the model as well as on the data. Since the mixing weights are also a function of the regime-specific noise covariance matrix, the model can account for contemporaneous regime-specific co-movements of the variables. The stability and distributional properties of the proposed model are discussed, as well as issues of estimation, testing and forecasting. The practical usefulness of the C-MSTAR model is illustrated by examining the relationship between US stock prices and interest rates.     

Spatial welfare economics versus ecological footprint: modeling agglomeration,externalities and trade

A welfare framework for the analysis of the spatial dimensions of sustainability is developed. It covers agglomeration effects, interregional trade, negative environmental externalities, and various land use categories. The model is used to compare rankings of spatial configurations according to evaluations based on social welfare and ecological footprint indicators. Five spatial configurations are considered for this purpose. The exercise is operationalized with the help of a two-region model of the economy, that is, in line with the ‘new economic geography.’ By generating a number of numerical ‘counter-examples,’ it is shown that the footprint method is inconsistent with an approach aimed at maximum social welfare. Unless environmental externalities are such a large problem that they overwhelm all other components of economic well-being, a ‘spatial welfare economic’ approach delivers totally different rankings of alternative land use configurations than the ecological footprint.      

I do not own a car any more: An analysis of possessions’ disposal and changes in consumers’ identities

This research aims to understand the process of cars' disposal, its context, its influences and its impacts on the meanings for consumers and their identities, as well as the new behaviours of these consumers when living without their car(s). We conducted, analysed and interpreted 20 in‐depth interviews with consumers that had previously owned at least one car and had no financial reasons for disposing of their car(s), but had decided to do it, and started to live without them, adopting alternative methods of transportation. Our findings show that these consumers faced a complicated process regarding the disposal of their car(s) but, due to the changes in their circumstances, they re‐signified relevant concepts that were connected to the ownership of a car: Their perception of freedom, comfort, safety and status changed during and after the disposal of their car(s). We also noticed that there were implications in terms of changes in their attitudes and behaviour as both citizens and consumers. As a contribution to the literature, our findings indicate that the re‐signifying of concepts related to possession of the object as well as changes in attitudes and behaviours that consumers undergo in the postdisposal stage, must be included in the model proposed for evaluating consumer behaviour in product disposal.     

The collective voice of unions and workplace training in Italy: New insights from mixed methods

Using a three-phase approach that combines quantitative (pooled OLS, fixed effects and IV) with qualitative (semi-structured interviews) analyses, we find that in Italy, workplace unions are more likely to enhance training when they sign a firm-level agreement and when they can get access to external funds for financing. We also identify three channels: what we call a ‘maturation effect’, double-track communication and watch-dog function. We argue that these results are consistent with the idea that the impact of workplace unions on training depends on the empowerment of its collective voice within an institutional framework that does not fit either of the standard models provided by collective and liberal market economies.