Matrix Representation of Solution Concepts in the Graph Model for Conflict Resolution with Probabilistic Preferences and Multiple Decision Makers

Group Decision and Negotiation - In this paper, matrix methods are developed to determine stable states in the graph model for conflict resolution (GMCR) with probabilistic preferences with n...     

Characteristics of non-fatal injuries in Leon, Nicaragua - 2004

This article describes the epidemiology of injuries collected in the Injury Surveillance System in Leon Hospital in Nicaragua. A total of 6659 persons were treated for injuries in 2004. It was discovered that 88% of all injuries were unintentional, 9% involved interpersonal violence, 2% were self-inflicted and 0.2% was undetermined. Men accounted for 64.7% of the cases, with the highest rate among 20 - 24 year olds (5625.8 per 100,000 inhabitants). Among women, the highest rate was in those aged 64 years and older (5324.2 per 100 000 inhabitants). The most common mechanisms were falls (33.9%), blunt force (26.8%), cut/pierce/stab (15.1%) and transportation-related (12.8%). These results indicate the need to identify prevention strategies for those injuries that were most commonly treated in emergency, such as unintentional falls among older women, self-inflicted poisoning among young women and blunt force and transportation-related injuries among young men.     

Fiscal Transparency,Fiscal Performance and Credit Ratings

Fiscal transparency can provide policymakers with incentives to adopt better policies by enhancing the public debate on the design and sustainability of fiscal policy and establishing accountability for their implementation. Fiscal transparency can also reduce uncertainty about fiscal policy and fiscal outturns by providing more information on the underlying fiscal position and fiscal risks. Both effects suggest that countries should benefit from adopting transparency enhancing policies through better market assessments of their sovereign risk. In this paper, we investigate whether fiscal transparency has an effect on market perceptions of sovereign risk, as measured by sovereign credit ratings, and if so, through which channels. We find that fiscal transparency has a positive and significant effect on ratings – one standard deviation increase in fiscal transparency increases credit ratings by 0.7 and 1 notches (or steps in the credit rating scale) in advanced and developing economies, respectively – but its effect works through different channels in advanced and developing economies. In advanced economies, fiscal transparency is associated with better fiscal outcomes, leading indirectly to higher credit ratings. In developing economies, the direct uncertainty‐reducing effect of fiscal transparency seems to be more important. Indeed, the effect of fiscal transparency on fiscal performance is found to increase with the level of institutional development.     

How do country‐level governance characteristics impact the relationship between R&D and firm value?

This article addresses the question of how country‐level governance characteristics moderate the market valuation of research and development (R&D). Using a valuation model and panel data from companies in the European Union, United States, and Japan, we find that effective corporate governance allows the market to better assess a firm's R&D investments. This finding is the conjunction with the effect of the legal system, the financial system, and mechanisms of control. First, as effectiveness of investor protection increases, the market valuation of R&D projects also increases. Second, more developed financial systems do a better job assessing R&D. Third, effective control mechanisms reinforce the positive effect of R&D on a firm's market value. In sum, our findings shed light on how policymakers can increase the benefits from firms' R&D spending and thus foster economic growth and social welfare using these country‐level governance characteristics.     

World Human Development: 1870–2007

How has wellbeing evolved over time and across regions? How does the West compare to the Rest? What explains their differences? These questions are addressed using a historical index of human development. A sustained improvement in world wellbeing has taken place since 1870. The absolute gap between OECD and the Rest widened over time, but an incomplete catching up—largely explained by education—occurred between 1913 and 1970. As the health transition was achieved in the Rest, the contribution of life expectancy to human development improvement declined and the Rest fell behind in terms of longevity. Meanwhile, in the OECD, as longevity increased, healthy years expanded. A large variance in human development is noticeable in the Rest since 1970, with East Asia, Latin America, and North Africa catching up to the OECD, and Central and Eastern Europe and Sub‐Saharan Africa falling behind.     

Sparse Partial Least Squares in Time Series for Macroeconomic Forecasting

Factor models have been applied extensively for forecasting when high‐dimensional datasets are available. In this case, the number of variables can be very large. For instance, usual dynamic factor models in central banks handle over 100 variables. However, there is a growing body of literature indicating that more variables do not necessarily lead to estimated factors with lower uncertainty or better forecasting results. This paper investigates the usefulness of partial least squares techniques that take into account the variable to be forecast when reducing the dimension of the problem from a large number of variables to a smaller number of factors. We propose different approaches of dynamic sparse partial least squares as a means of improving forecast efficiency by simultaneously taking into account the variable forecast while forming an informative subset of predictors, instead of using all the available ones to extract the factors. We use the well‐known Stock and Watson database to check the forecasting performance of our approach. The proposed dynamic sparse models show good performance in improving efficiency compared to widely used factor methods in macroeconomic forecasting. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Transformational tourism as a hero's journey

Transformational tourism is an emerging form of tourism that deserves better attention from researchers and reviewers. This article provides a better understanding of the phenomenon, its varieties and its different stages, drawing on the metaphor of Campbell's archetypical journey of transformation: hero's journey. Using a phenomenological approach, the article tries to shed some light upon the conditions of the touristic experiences that foster transformation. Eight factors were identified: personal situation, being away doing unfamiliar activities, interaction with people, live the moment, difficulty, setting, reflection and integration. The three stages of the hero's journey (departure, initiation and return) are subsequently applied to describe the transformative travel process. The paper concludes with implications for research and professional practice.     

Financial Education Interventions Targeting Immigrants and Children of Immigrants: Results from a Randomized Control Trial

We document that immigrants in the United States differ from natives in several aspects relevant for their financial decision making. Based on these differences, we designed novel financial education materials targeted at US immigrants and their children and evaluated their effectiveness using a randomized control trial. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first rigorous evaluation of financial education programs targeted at this population. Compared to a control group, the groups that received the one‐time educational intervention were more likely to correctly answer financial knowledge questions immediately after the intervention. The estimated effects of this one‐time intervention on knowledge were large, but most of them faded away after six months. Moreover, we find little effect of the treatments on intended financial behavior measures, both immediately and six months later. Our results point to the efficacy of this type of educational material in informing immigrants and their children about important financial information that they are unfamiliar with, including information related to their immigrant status. However, they also suggest that a priority for future research should be to test whether repeated opportunities for learning can increase financial knowledge retention and lead to behavior change.     

Modelling regional policy scenarios in the agri-food sector: a case study of a Spanish region

The agri-food industry has several features of great importance for sustainable economic growth in rural areas. The objective of this work is to evaluate the effects associated with different scenarios of growth, and changes in the regional agri-food industry. These scenarios simulate changes in exports and imports, changes in technology and changes in the level of industrial integration. We develop a computable general equilibrium model calibrated for the region. Our results indicate that policies trying to improve the competitiveness and dynamism of strategic sectors as the agro-industrial complex in this regional economy exert positive effects on its growth and income, having notable impacts on local job markets but also in other sectors and activities linked through the whole production chain.     

On the risk premium in Nordic electricity futures prices

This paper examines empirically the relationship between electricity spot and futures prices, by analysing a decade of data for a set of short term-to-maturity futures contracts traded in the Nordic Power Exchange. It is found that, on average, there are significant positive risk premiums in short-term electricity futures prices. The significance and size of the premiums, however, varies seasonally over the year; whereas it is greatest during winter, it is zero in summer. It is also found that time-varying risk premiums are significantly related to unexpectedly low reservoir levels. Furthermore, before the unprecedented supply-shock that hit the market around the end of year 2002, the risk premiums were related to the variance and the skewness of future spot prices.