Risikomanagement in Schaden-/Unfall-Versicherungsunternehmen

Seit Inkrafttreten des KonTraG im Mai 1998 sind Versicherungsunternehmen gesetzlich zur Einführung eines Risikofrüherkennungssystems verpflichtet. Es existieren bisher keine genauen gesetzlichen Vorgaben für die inhaltliche Ausgestaltung dieses Systems. Ziel dieses Artikels ist es zum einen, einen überblick über die verschiedenen Ausgestaltungsvarianten von Risikofrüherkennungssystemen in der Versicherungspraxis zu geben. Grundlage hierfür bildet eine Umfrage unter 229 deutschen Schaden-/Unfall-Versicherungsunternehmen im Herbst 2000. Zum anderen werden theoretische Ansatzpunkte für eine Integration von Risikomanagementsystemen in die Unternehmensführung anhand der betrieblichen Teilsysteme Planung, Organisation, Personalführung, Informationssystem, Kontrolle und Controlling aufgezeigt.     

WITHDRAWN SPIN‐OFFS: AN EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS

We examine market reaction to corporate spin‐offs that are eventually withdrawn. These spin‐offs do not experience the significant positive share price response reported for spin‐offs generally. The overall market reaction to both the initial spin‐off announcement and the withdrawal announcement is not significant. When a reason is provided for withdrawing a spin‐off, there is a significant positive market reaction; otherwise, there is a significant negative reaction. Firms that withdraw a spin‐off without stating a reason experience significant deterioration in industry‐adjusted operating performance in the three years following the withdrawal. These results indicate the market can anticipate the viability of withdrawn spin‐offs at the time of the initial announcement. JEL classification: G34     

THE PRECAUTIONARY PRINCIPLE: A HIGH‐RISK PRINCIPLE1

The precautionary principle ‐ recently added to the French constitution and part of the draft Constitution of the European Union ‐ aims to protect the public from the risks associated with scientific and technological advance by allowing governments to ban any activity deemed to involve risks, even if those risks are unproven. In reality, the precautionary principle itself poses enormous risks of losing the advantages of projects that are banned, of preventing the development of the means by which risk may be ameliorated and of threatening the private property rights that provide the most effective environmental safeguard.     

Is performance driven by industry‐or firm‐specific factors? A new look at the evidence

In this study we revisit the question of whether firms' performance is driven primarily by industry or firm factors, extending past studies in two major ways. Firstly, in a departure from past research, we use value‐based measures of performance (economic profit or residual income and market‐to‐book value) instead of accounting ratios (such as return on assets). We also use a new data set and a different statistical approach for testing the significance of the independent effects. Secondly, we examine whether the findings of past research can be generalized across all firms in an industry or whether they apply to a particular class of firms within the same industry. We find that a significant proportion of the absolute estimates of the variance of firm factors is due to the presence of a few exceptional firms in any given industry. In other words, only for a few dominant value creators (leaders) and destroyers (losers) do firm‐specific assets seem to matter significantly more than industry factors. For most other firms, i.e., for those that are not notable leaders or losers in their industry, however, the industry effect turns out to be more important for performance than firm‐specific factors. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Nonparametric search

We analyze the search problem of a consumer who derives information only from the sequential search process. This paper considers the case of a consumer who uses a nonparametric procedure to estimate the probability distribution. It is shown that a solution to the consumer's problem is a very simple strategy which depends only on the order statistics, on the discounting factor, and on the duration of the search. It leads to a finite search almost surely. This optimal strategy is a myopic rule which is computable and which is characterized by a sequence of strictly increasing reservation prices.     

Adjustable-rate mortgages,household mobility,and homeownership: A simulation study

A semi-Markov model is used to evaluate the effects of adjustable-rate mortgages on housing tenure decisions of recent movers and steady-state homeownership rates. Simulations were undertaken based on household data from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics together with information on FRM-ARM rate spreads and Treasury yield curves. Results suggest that under most interest rate patterns that prevailed in the 1980s, ARMS had little effect on the relative cost of owning to renting and, as a result, had little effect on mover tenure choice and home sales. Moreover, despite some minor projected increase in the percentage of movers that choose to own when ARMs are available, ARM effects on steady-state owner-occupancy rates appear to be largely mitigated by an ARM-induced tilt toward a relatively more mobile steady-state pool of owner-occupiers.     

THE MEASUREMENT OF GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT IN KOREA

South Korea began its measurement of Gross National Product during the turbulent 1950's, a period of postwar rebuilding and of political and social changes. With only a small and largely inexperienced staff, and with little support from other statistical agencies whose data were essential to adequate GNP measurement, the Bank of Korea began this task in the early 1950's. Early estimates were extremely rough; over the years, the statistical staff was trained and other statistical agencies were upgraded. Measurements of output in the large agricultural sector and in manufacturing have gradually but consistently been strengthened as recent input-output data has been developed. Gaps still persist, particularly in the wholesale and retail sectors, but certain strengths are present: an outstanding job has been done in product pricing. The author describes the evolution of Korea's improving GNP program, presents its sources of data and its methodologies, and gives an assessment of problems of the past and prospects for the future.