The decision game: a serious game approach to understanding environmental risk management decisions

Abstract

Here we describe the implementation of an experimental research tool called the Decision Game that we used to collect data on household flood risk management decisions. Participants using this tool play an interactive game that involves making household decisions about place of residence and a variety of household expenditures, including spending on flood insurance and private flood risk mitigation. Participants also answer survey questions before and after playing the game; the pre-game survey collected demographic information, and the post-game survey collected information about participant experiences with flooding and flood mitigation. Online and face-to-face participants showed similar engagement with the experiment, and most participants appeared to have made deliberate and considered decisions about risk mitigation. Online study participants had similar responses to those who participated in person, although face-to-face participants seemed slightly more likely to mitigate against risk. Overall, participants in this research were younger, more educated and more likely to rent a home than the average Canadian. Serious games may be useful for augmenting existing data gathering strategies used in understanding environmental decision making, particularly for rare catastrophic events for which stated preference surveys may be less informative. Serious games allow for sharing a mixture of information with study participants, including maps, video clips, text and even immersive 3D experiences, and can be administered online to increase participation levels. Future research will consider longer duration online experiments and more immersive interaction frameworks.     

How Adult Attachment Styles Relate to Perceived Psychological Contract Breach and Affective Organizational Commitment

The current study examines the relationship between adult attachment style and both perceived psychological contract breach and affective organizational commitment in a sample of college students with employment experience. Attachment style is argued to be an individual difference factor that affects how an individual perceives organizational events based on theory and existing empirical research related to adult attachment style. Individuals with insecure attachment styles were predicted to perceive more psychological contract breach and have lower levels of affective organizational commitment. The results reveal that individuals with higher levels of preoccupied and dismissive attachment styles perceived higher levels of psychological contract breach, and preoccupied attachment style significantly and negatively relates to affective organizational commitment. The relationship between attachment style and psychological contract dimensions was stronger for relational than transactional contract dimensions. Evidence is also found that perceived psychological contract breach mediates the relationship between preoccupied attachment style and affective commitment. Future potential research directions are described. The implications of these findings for managerial practice is discussed.     

From “Lemons” to Lemonade: Lessening the Impact of Adverse Selection through Buyer Trust

This research extends overlapping streams of research examining asymmetric information, adverse selection, and buyer trust by presenting an empirical investigation of the process by which a market for “lemons” emerges in the claiming market for thoroughbred racehorses. The study focuses attention on the potential of quality signals and buyer trust to lessen the impact of adverse selection. Incorporating concepts from economics, marketing, and psychology, a conceptual model suggests that adversely selected racehorses, distinguished by an unintentional signal from sellers to potential buyers, will be priced lower than otherwise similar racehorses perceived to be less subject to adverse selection. Data from one day of claiming races at 16 American racetracks (744 racehorses) are used to test this study hypothesis. Results provide evidence for adverse selection and a mitigating quality signal in the thoroughbred claiming market. Implications for buyers and sellers in this market, as well as more general implications, are discussed and an avenue for future research is proposed.     

Work and common health problems

This paper reviews the evidence on the relationship between work and health. It concludes that, overall, the beneficial effects of work outweigh the risks of work, and are greater than the harmful effects of long-term worklessness. That contrasts with increasing trends of sickness absence, long-term incapacity and ill-health retirement attributed to common health problems. It suggests that there needs to be a fundamental shift in how we think about common health problems and work--in health care, the workplace and society.     

Statistical Independence and Fractional Age Assumptions

Abstract

This paper considers in some detail the issue of statistical independence of the curtate future lifetime and the fractional part of the future lifetime of a general status.

Statistical independence is often employed in actuarial contexts, primarily because it leads to simple relationships between quantities of interest and statistical information that is of a discrete nature, such as a life table. The uniform distribution of deaths (UDD) assumption is the most commonly used because of its simplicity and intuitive appeal, but it can be somewhat restrictive. For example, all deaths or withdrawals may be assumed to be at a particular point in the year such as the middle; assumptions of this type are often made in a multiple decrement context. This paper attempts to unify these assumptions and extend their applicability in an actuarial context.

The conditions for independence need to be stated carefully, and the last-survivor status is cited as an example in which failure to do so can lead to erroneous conclusions.

The fractional independence (Fl) assumption is defined, and it is demonstrated that many of the formulas for life table functions that hold under the more restrictive UDD assumption are extended easily to the general Fl case. The simple relationship under UDD between insurances payable on other than an annual mode and those payable at the end of the year of death is extended to the Fl case as well. These results are then used to obtain results for annuities and reserves, again generalizing UDD relationships. It is then demonstrated that many contingent probabilities in the multiple life context are exactly the same under the Fl assumption as under the more restrictive UDD assumption. Finally, a very general result that holds in the multiple decrement context is shown to hold under the Fl assumption.     

Culture,Self-Construal,and Leisure Motivations

The purpose of this study is to examine Canadian and Mainland Chinese students' leisure by investigating the role self-construal plays as an intervening variable between culture and motivation. Separate hierarchical multiple regressions are performed on each motivation with culture entered first followed by a block composed of four types of self-construal: vertical collectivism (i.e., dutiful), horizontal collectivism (i.e., cooperative), horizontal individualism (i.e., unique), and vertical individualism (i.e., achievement oriented). Results suggest that: (a) higher levels of horizontal collectivism are associated with higher levels of introjected reward (i.e., pride), identified (i.e., personally important), integrated (self-identity), and intrinsic (i.e., interesting and enjoyable) motivations; and (b) higher levels of horizontal individualism are associated with higher levels of introjected reward, identified, and integrated motivations.     

Adding a freight network to a national interstate input–output model: a TransNIEMO application for California

The state of the nation’s infrastructure is the subject of widespread discussion and comment because it is thought to include many deteriorating and unsafe bridges. Ever since the terrorist attacks of 9/11, there has been increasing concern over the extent to which an attack on infrastructure could result in serious economic disruption. This research develops a model to analyze the economic consequences of an attack on a major element of the highway network. We add a freight network to a national multiregional economic impact model and make freight traffic flows endogenous. The use of a sub-national interstate model recognizes that most infrastructure planning is at the state level and most political leaders’ interest is local. We base our approach on the National Interstate Economic Model (NIEMO) and refer to an elaboration that we name Transportation network and the National Interstate Economic Model (TransNIEMO). The new model enables us to study the state-specific and industry-specific economic impacts of some significant changes in the nature of highway freight movements. We tested the model for selected freight movements in and out of California. The results are entirely plausible and encourage us to elaborate and test the model for hypothetical disruptions of freight traffic throughout the US.