Monetary and Fiscal Theories of the Price Level: The Irreconcilable Differences

The fiscal theory of the price level (FTPL) has attracted muchattention but disagreement remains concerning its defining characteristics.Some writers have emphasized implications regarding interest-ratepegging and determinacy of rational expectations solutions,whereas others have stressed its capacity to generate equilibriain which price-level trajectories mimic those of bonds and differdrastically from those of money supplies. We argue that theFTPL attained prominence precisely because it appeared to providea theory whose implications differ greatly from conventionalmonetary analysis; accordingly we review monetarist writingsto identify the primary distinctions. In addition, we reviewrecent findings concerning learnability—and thereforeplausibility—of competing rational expectations equilibria.These indicate that when FTPL and monetarist equilibria differ,the latter are more plausible in the vast majority of cases.Under Ricardian assumptions, necessary for clear distinctions,theoretical analysis indicates that fiscal and monetary coordinationis not necessary for macroeconomic stability. Footnotes ¹ E-mail addresses: bmccallum{at}cmu.edu; edward.nelson{at}stls.frb.org     

Applying portfolio theory to global bank lending

Portfolio theory provides some insights into how a bank should manage its global exposures. Practical application of some of the principles of portfolio analysis is possible if comparable credit ratings are available and if the impact on each loan's rating of likely future events can be assessed. If further restrictive assumptions are made about which quality dimensions of the portfolio are more important (and how much more important), and if judgements can be quantified about what risk-return tradeoffs are acceptable, then it is possible to derive measures to guide exposure and pricing decisions. This article is related to the other papers in this special issue in that country and corporate risk assessment methodologies can provide important inputs into the portfolio analysis. This paper, however, attempts to go beyond the evaluation of risk at the level of individual companies, countries, or other loan customers, and to focus instead on the problem of managing the riskiness of the overall bank loan portfolio.     

Farmers’ Willingness to Pay for a Tuberculosis Cattle Vaccine

We use contingent valuation (CV) and choice experiment (CE) methods to assess cattle farmers’ attitudes to and willingness to pay (WTP) for a bovine tuberculosis (bTB) cattle vaccine, to help inform vaccine development and policy. A survey questionnaire was administered by means of telephone interviews to a stratified sample of 300 cattle farmers in annually bTB‐tested areas in England and Wales. Farmers felt that bTB was a major risk for the cattle industry and that there was a high risk of their cattle getting the disease. The CE estimate produced a mean WTP of £35 per animal per single dose for a vaccine that is 90% effective at reducing the risk of a bTB breakdown and an estimated £55 for such a vaccine backed by 100% insurance of loss if a breakdown should occur. The CV estimate produced a mean WTP of nearly £17 per dose/per animal/per year for a vaccine (including 100% insurance) which, given the average lifespan of cattle, is comparable to the CE estimate. These WTP estimates are substantially higher than the expected cost of a vaccine which suggests that farmers in high risk bTB ‘hotspot’ areas perceive a substantial net benefit from buying the vaccine.     

How Unbecoming of You: Online Experiments Uncovering Gender Biases in Perceptions of Ridesharing Performance

Journal of Business Ethics - Gender discrimination continues to plague organizations. While the advent of the Internet and the digitization of commerce have provided both a mechanism by which goods...     

School foodservice employees’ beliefs about local produce use at work and home

Sustainability practices are becoming an essential part of foodservice businesses. Schools often purchase local produce and use it in school meals as part of their sustainability efforts. School foodservice employees play an important role in the effectuation of these efforts and understanding their perceptions is important. A questionnaire was used to assess foodservice employees’ beliefs regarding the quality and benefits of local produce use in schools. Results indicate differences in employees’ perceptions regarding benefits and quality of local produce based on their perception of the importance of purchasing local produce for home use.     

Conditional Mandates on Management Earnings Forecasts: The Impact on the Cost of Debt

Exploiting a unique conditional disclosure mandate on management earnings forecasts (MEFs) in China, we examine the differential effects of voluntary and mandatory MEFs on the cost of debt. We find that firms providing voluntary MEFs have lower cost of debt than do mandatory forecasters and nonforecasters. The results of the channel analyses reveal that voluntary forecasters have greater commitment to voluntary MEFs in future periods than do mandatory forecasters and nonforecasters, and the precision, accuracy, and timeliness of MEFs are higher for voluntary forecasters than for mandatory forecasters. Additional analyses show that the differential effects of voluntary and mandatory MEFs on cost of debt are stronger for voluntary forecasters operating in opaque information environments, issuing high-quality and confirming forecasts, controlled by private shareholders, and operating in highly competitive product markets. Overall, our results indicate that, compared with mandatory MEFs, voluntary MEFs are more informative for credit investors, particularly for firms facing greater information risk and operating uncertainty.     

MORGAN STANLEY ROUNDTABLE ON Capital Structure and Payout Policy

A group of distinguished finance academics and practitioners discuss a number of topical issues in corporate financial management: Is there such a thing as an optimal, or value‐maximizing, capital structure for a given company? What proportion of a firm's current earnings should be distributed to the firm's shareholders? And under what circumstances should such distributions take the form of stock repurchases rather than dividends? The consensus that emerges is that a company's financing and payout policies should be designed to support its business strategy. For growth companies, the emphasis is on preserving financial flexibility to carry out the business plan, which means heavy reliance on equity financing and limited payouts. But for companies in mature industries with few major investment opportunities, more aggressive use of debt and higher payouts can add value both by reducing taxes and controlling the corporate free cash flow problem. In such cases, both leveraged financing and cash distributions through dividends and stock buybacks signal management's commitment to its shareholders that the firm's excess cash will not be wasted on projects that produce low‐return growth that comes at the expense of profitability. As for the choice between dividends and stock repurchases, dividends provide a stronger commitment to pay out excess cash than open market repurchase programs. Stock buybacks, at least of the open market variety, preserve more flexibility for companies that want to be able to capitalize on unpredictable investment opportunities. But, as with the debt‐equity decision, there is an optimal level of financial flexibility: too little can mean lost investment opportunities, but too much can lead to overinvestment.     

Archetyping relationships with companion animals to understand disaster risk-taking propensity

Pets factor into the daily decision-making of many people. Importantly, various characteristics of these human–animal relationships are known to strongly influence pet owners’ risk behaviour and, consequently, their animals’ welfare during disasters. Yet, few studies have examined a range of such characteristics concurrently in order to describe risk propensity differences in these relationships. In this study, 437 Australian companion-animal (pet) owners reported human–animal relational, personality and attitudinal characteristics, to examine differences in stated tendency to act to secure their pet’s welfare whilst risking potential harm in a hypothetical disaster dilemma. Cluster analysis identified five archetypal profiles differing in relational, personality, attitude and risk-propensity characteristics, as well as in stated willingness to risk personal safety for the well-being of a pet. Results suggest that relational archetypes are an effective means of examining pet–owner risk propensity, to better understand owners’ risk-taking to protect their animals from harm during a disaster.