我国风力发电项目投资风险评价——基于支持向量机模型

在分析我国风力发电项目投资风险并建立其评价指标体系的基础上,将支持向量机模型用于风力发电项目投资风险评价,全面衡量风力发电项目面临的经济风险、技术风险、政策风险等。支持向量机方法很好地解决了风力发电项目样本数据缺失、评价主观性问题。实证分析结果表明,利用支持向量机模型评价风力发电项目的投资风险,具有一定的适用性和准确性。     

集团战略异质性与控制权配置的关系分析

集团如何依据自身的战略选择合适的控制权配置方式来保障组织效率已成为目前集团管控中普遍存在和亟待解决的难点问题。基于对上述问题的探寻,以2004-2008年深、沪A股隶属于集团的上市公司为研究样本,通过探讨集团战略的业务相关性与集团持股比例的关联关系以及控制权结构和集团持股比例对集团战略的交互效应发现:集团控股股东持股比例越高,集团战略的业务相关性越强,并且控制权结构会显著调节不同类型的集团战略业务相关性与持股比例的关系。     

Consumer valuation of safety‐labeled free‐range chicken: results of a field experiment in Hanoi

This article presents results of a field experiment designed to assess willingness to pay for safely produced free‐range chicken in Hanoi, the capital of Vietnam. Improved safety of chicken production and trading is suggested as an important component of avian influenza control strategy, which aims to address the direct costs of avian influenza as well as the global public health externality. However, consumer demand for safely produced free‐range chicken is unknown. Products that have credible food labeling are not common in traditional markets where the majority of free‐range chicken is purchased. Valuing characteristics of products sold in informal markets is a major challenge that our experiment overcomes. As part of the experiment, we provided several vendors from these markets with safety‐labeled free‐range chicken. Consumer valuation of safety labeling was elicited through having experiment participants, who were representative of potential consumers, select between discount coupons for either safety‐labeled chicken or regular chicken. Results indicate that consumers will pay at least $0.50, or a 10–15% premium, per chicken purchase for safety labeling, which emphasizes safe production, processing, and transport conditions. This premium is smaller than the premium currently paid for traditional chicken varieties that are considered to be tastier. Consumers with more education have higher valuation of safety labeling. Hence, safety labeling for high‐quality free‐range chicken can play a role in controlling livestock disease and improving public health.     

Specialization,diversification, and productivity: a panel data analysis of rice farms in Korea

This article examines the microeconomics of productivity associated with specialization/diversification in production activities, with an application to Korean rice farms. Korean rice farms tend to be very small and highly specialized. Our analysis examines the productivity effects associated with both farm size and farm specialization/diversification in Korean agriculture. Relying on farm‐level panel data, the analysis studies farm productivity in a multi‐input multi‐output context, accounting not only for changes in inputs and technical change in rice production, but also for the role of diversification in the production of other crops in current and previous periods. We find positive but small productivity gains from farm diversification. These gains come mostly from complementarity effects across farm outputs, with minimal effect of scale economies. The positive complementarity effects work against nonconvexity effects, which provide strong productivity incentives for rice farms to specialize.     

Coping with drought with innovative pricing systems: the case of two irrigation water management companies in France

In recent years, France has been facing particularly severe drought periods especially in summer. In a country where agriculture is the largest water user, some irrigation management companies have implemented innovative pricing systems to handle this situation. The objective of this article is to analyze the impact of these new management systems on farmers’ incomes, the revenue of the management companies, and the amount of water used. To do that, we develop a methodology using a stochastic model that simulates the representative farmer's optimal behavior in a context of climatic variability. An empirical application is made with a crop growth model and data collected from the Midi‐Pyrenees region. The results show that using these specific nonlinear pricing systems allow irrigation water managers to reduce the impact of drought on production. Moreover, the type of pricing implemented depends on the characteristics and capabilities of the water company. More particularly, these pricing systems can be used to anticipate agricultural water demand in order to avoid imbalance with water availability.     

中国企业境外森林可持续经营利用案例研究

随着中国企业"走出去"步伐的不断加快,领域也扩展到林业企业,这既是我国主动参与全球化分工的重要体现,也是更好地利用国内外"两个市场、两种资源"的现实需要。通过典型案例的研究发现,中国与加蓬作为比较优势互补的国家,在林业合作中前景广阔。阐述了中粮集团下属的加蓬三利木业公司的经营及供应链情况,以及企业对《中国企业境外森林可持续经营利用指南》的认知程度,分析了企业境外森林可持续经营利用的机遇和挑战,总结其先进经验及不足之处,对探索如何引导中国企业境外森林可持续经营利用行为具有积极的意义。     

The Role of Bank Reputation in “Certifying” Future Performance Implications of Borrowers’ Accounting Numbers

We investigate the role played by the reputation of lead arrangers of syndicated loans in mitigating information asymmetries between borrowers and lenders. We hypothesize that syndications by more reputable arrangers are indicative of higher borrower quality at loan inception and more rigorous monitoring during the term of the loan. We investigate whether borrowers with more reputable lead arrangers realize superior performance subsequent to loan origination relative to borrowers with less reputable arrangers. We further examine whether certification by high‐reputation lead banks extends to the quality of borrowers’ reported accounting numbers. Controlling for endogenous matching of borrowers and lead banks, we find that higher bank reputation is associated with higher profitability and credit quality in the three years subsequent to loan initiation. We also show that bank reputation is associated with long‐run sustainability of earnings via higher earnings persistence, and debt contracting value of accounting via a stronger connection between pre‐loan profitability and future credit quality. We further document that the enhanced earnings sustainability associated with higher reputation lead banks reflects both superior fundamentals and accruals more closely linked with future cash flows.     

Have We Underestimated the Likelihood and Severity of Zero Lower Bound Events?

Prior to the financial crisis, most economists probably did not view the zero lower bound (ZLB) as a major problem for central banks. Using a range of structural and statistical models, we find that previous research understated the ZLB threat by ignoring uncertainty about model parameters and latent variables, focusing too much on the Great Moderation experience, and relying on structural models whose dynamics cannot generate sustained ZLB episodes. Our analysis also suggests that the Federal Reserve's asset purchases, while materially improving macroeconomic conditions, did not prevent the ZLB constraint from having first‐order adverse effects on real activity and inflation.     

Cost of Equity and S&P 500 Index Revisions

We examine how the cost of equity changes when firms are added to or removed from the S&P 500 Index during index revisions. Newly added firms experience a significant decline in the cost of equity, while recently removed firms show a significant increase. Liquidity improves for addition firms and declines for removed firms. Addition firms also experience a decline in shadow cost. Changes in cost of equity for included firms are explained by changes in liquidity, shadow cost, and firm size. Finally, included firms with greater investment opportunities benefit more from the reduction in cost of capital.     

A New Method for Identifying the Effects of Foreign Exchange Interventions

Central banks react even to intraday changes in the exchange rate; however, in most cases, intervention data are available only at a daily frequency. This temporal aggregation makes it difficult to identify the effects of interventions on the exchange rate. We apply the Bayesian Markov‐chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) approach to this endogeneity problem. We use “data augmentation” to obtain intraday intervention amounts and estimate the efficacy of interventions using the augmented data. Applying this new method to Japanese data, we find that an intervention of 1 trillion yen moves the yen/dollar rate by 1.8%, which is more than twice as much as the magnitude reported in previous studies applying ordinary least squares to daily observations. This shows the quantitative importance of the endogeneity problem due to temporal aggregation.