人民币实际汇率失调与中国国际竞争力

本文首先测算了1994年第一季度到2005年第二季度的人民币均衡实际汇率及人民币实际汇率的失调程度,然后考察了这一时期人民币实际汇率失调与中国国际竞争力之间的关系。通过研究发现:这一时期的人民币实际汇率失调与中国国际竞争力之间存在负相关关系,并且人民币实际汇率失调是导致中国国际竞争力变化的格兰杰原因,具体来说,人民币实际汇率高估会导致中国国际竞争力下降。     

报废汽车回收体系结构模型研究

报废汽车的回收重用一方面是＂生产者责任延伸制＂在汽车行业贯彻实施的结果,另一方面来源于再制造环节中蕴藏的丰厚利润的诱导.目前我国回收利用报废汽车的方式比较落后,主要是对原材料进行重用.本文构建了一个由汽车制造商牵头纽建,以功能多样化的回收中心作为中心处理单元的报废汽车回收体系结构模型,以期实现更高层次的回收重用.     

增长机会与资本结构——对我国生物制药行业上市公司的实证研究

本文从公司战略及外部资本市场环境出发,对我国生物制药行业上市公司的增长机会与资本结构的相关性进行了实证研究,结果发现该行业上市公司增长机会与其债务水平呈显著负相关。     

关税升级与中国汽车产业发展——基于空间经济学的经验研究

本文利用中国与主要汽车生产国的汽车产业有关数据，在一个关税升级体系下垄断竞争产业发展模型的基础上，运用校准法进行了初步的经验研究。与以往汽车产业贸易政策基于寡占市场结构的经验研究不同，本文试图在垄断竞争市场结构下考察关税升级对中国汽车产业发展趋势的影响。研究表明，集合主要汽车生产国的数据后，汽车产业具有集聚发展的倾向，而我国目前较高程度的关税升级体系在其他条件不变的情况下，能够降低汽车产业实现大发展的临界条件。     

基于实物期权法对R&D项目价值评估的研究——对布莱克-舒尔斯定价模型的改进

针对R&D项目投资的特点,探讨了采用布莱克一舒尔斯期权定价模型对R&D项目价值评估可能存在的缺陷,并提出一种改进方法,即将决策树和布莱克一舒尔斯定价模型结合运用,因为决策树能够模拟研发项目的阶段性决策过程,考虑到多个离散型不确定性因素的相关性,模拟并计算出对决策路径依赖的现金流,因此能克服纯粹使用布莱克一舒尔斯公式的不足,在考虑多个不确定性因素的影响下,实现对多阶段R&D项目价值的评估,作出正确的投资决策。     

建设优秀企业文化打造持续竞争优势

企业文化作为现代企业管理理论和管理方法的兴起，至今不过20年左右的时间。它之所以引起企业界和学术界的广泛关注和研究，其根本原因是由于它给企业注入了生命活力，以及它给企业带来的有形的和无形的、经济和社会的双重效应，企业文化成了促进企业经营业绩和经济增长的有效手段，一个没有优秀企业文化的企业决不会在激烈的市场竞争中脱颖而出。拥有优秀独特的企业文化，能够帮助企业取得竞争优势，使其立足市场，不断壮大和发展自己。     

Measuring volatility with the realized range

Realized variance, being the summation of squared intra-day returns, has quickly gained popularity as a measure of daily volatility. Following Parkinson [1980. The extreme value method for estimating the variance of the rate of return. Journal of Business 53, 61–65] we replace each squared intra-day return by the high–low range for that period to create a novel and more efficient estimator called the realized range. In addition, we suggest a bias-correction procedure to account for the effects of microstructure frictions based upon scaling the realized range with the average level of the daily range. Simulation experiments demonstrate that for plausible levels of non-trading and bid–ask bounce the realized range has a lower mean-squared error than the realized variance, including variants thereof that are robust to microstructure noise. Empirical analysis of the S&P500 index-futures and the S&P100 constituents confirms the potential of the realized range.     

Rationing in open economy and dynamic macroeconomics: A survey

Summary A survey of rationing in micro theories of macroeconomics is presented. The survey starts with a closed economy with money and inventories, which consists of a representative household, a firm and government. After a discussion of the notional demands and supplies and the properties of the Walrasian equilibrium, a discussion of the effective demands and supplies leads to an analysis of the four regimes (Keynesian unemployment, classical unemployment, repressed inflation and underconsumption). A fiscal and monetary contraction decreases sales and employment when there is Keynesian unemployment, but is expansionary (neutral) when there is repressed inflation (classical unemployment). The survey continues with an analysis of the effects of rationing in a small open economy. It considers the one-sector model and a model with a traded and a nontraded sector. The latter model is used to discuss the effects of an oil discovery on the Gulf countries and on Latin American countries. The survey ends with a discussion of rationing in dynamic economies, which leads to an analysis of the effects of expectations about future constraints on current regimes and to a discussion of boot-strap equilibria.The author is Director of the Network for Quantitative Economics. This paper is a brief and eclectic survey of rationing models of closed one-period and two-period economies and of small open economies. It contains no significant new material. The author is grateful to Professor Theo van de Klundert for his constructive comments on an earlier version of this survey.     

Income distribution,economic structure and employment in South Africa

This paper discusses the impact of a redistribution of current income from the White to the Black population on the distribution of sectoral output, and total employment by means of a semi‐closed input‐output model.

The results show that a redistribution of current income towards Black households — which no doubt will have positive social and political repercussions — has a non‐negative effect on GDP and a definite positive effect on the performance of sectors with a high private consumption expenditure component, as well as on total employment.     

翻译过程思维模式的理性探索

研究翻译过程就是探讨双语转换的认知心理过程,以揭示其思维规律。拟建的翻译模式整合Van Dijk的话语宏观结构理论和Neubert与Shreve的“虚构译本”观点,将七个语篇特征视为译者在解码与构码过程中作调整和变通的参数,旨在动态描述翻译过程。