An input approach to European comparative advantage in advanced products: A study with special emphasis on The Netherlands

Zusammenfassung Eine Input-orientierte Untersuchung der komparativen Vorteile Europas bei fortgeschrittenen Erzeugnissen unter besonderer Berücksichtigung der Niederlande.- Die Autoren zeigen, da\ die EG-L?nder - und besonders die Niederlande - im Laufe der siebziger Jahre den Vorsprung verringerten, den die Vereinigten Staaten ihnen gegenüber in der Verfügbarkeit von Humankapital hatten, das mittelfristig ein wichtiger Produktionsfaktor für eine solide Wettbewerbsposition der fortgeschrittenen Sektoren ist. Dagegen wurde auf dem Gebiet der Forschung und Entwicklung, das für die langfristige Wettbewerbsposition entscheidend ist, der Vorsprung Japans vor den USA und den EG-L?ndern (und besonders vor den Niederlanden) in den siebziger Jahren sogar noch gr?\er. Das sollte bedacht werden, wenn in der EG und vor allem in den Niederlanden z. B. eine Industriepolitik entworfen wird.

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Résumé Une approche d’input des avantages comparatifs européens en biens avancés: Une étude particulièrement sur les Pays Bas. - Les auteurs démontrent que pendant les années soixante-dix les pays CE - et particulièrement les Pays Bas - mitigaient l’avantage des E.U. concernant la disponibilité du capital humain comme facteur essentiel de production pour une solide position compétitive à moyen terme. Regardant recherche et développement comme facteurs essentiels pour la position compétitive à long terme, cependant, l’avance de Japon vis-à-vis les E.U. et les pays CE - et particulièrement les Pays Bas - même s’accr?t dans les années soixante-dix. Ce développement doit être considéré si l’on formule par example des politiques industrielles dans la CE et particulièrement aux Pays Bas.

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Resumen Los insumos en las ventajas comparativas de Europa en productos sofisticados: Un estudio con el énfasis en los Países Bajos. - Los autores demuestran que en los aftos 70 los paises de la CEE, particularmente los Países Bajos, lograron reducir la ventaja que les Uevan los EEUU en cuanto a la dotación con capital humano, que es un factor de producción esencial para llegar an una posición de competencia sólida en el mercado de productos avanzados. En investigación y desarrollo, que constituye un factor crucial para la posición competitiva de largo plazo en este campo, empero, la ventaja que le lleva el Japón a los EEUU y a la CEE y, particularmente, a los Países Bajos llegó a aumentar en los a?os 70. Esto debería ser tomado en cuenta cuando se formulen, por ejemplo, políticas industriales en la CEE y en los Países Bajos en particular.

     

Pricing Perpetual Options for Jump Processes

Abstract

We consider two models in which the logarithm of the price of an asset is a shifted compound Poisson process. Explicit results are obtained for prices and optimal exercise strategies of certain perpetual American options on the asset, in particular for the perpetual put option. In the first model in which the jumps of the asset price are upwards, the results are obtained by the martingale approach and the smooth junction condition. In the second model in which the jumps are downwards, we show that the value of the strategy corresponding to a constant option-exercise boundary satisfies a certain renewal equation. Then the optimal exercise strategy is obtained from the continuous junction condition. Furthermore, the same model can be used to price certain reset options. Finally, we show how the classical model of geometric Brownian motion can be obtained as a limit and also how it can be integrated in the two models.     

On forecasting cointegrated seasonal time series

We analyze periodic and seasonal cointegration models for bivariate quarterly observed time series in an empirical forecasting study. We include both single equation and multiple equation methods for those two classes of models. A VAR model in first differences, with and without cointegration restrictions, and a VAR model in annual differences are also included in the analysis, where they serve as benchmark models. Our empirical results indicate that the VAR model in first differences without cointegration is best if one-step ahead forecasts are considered. For longer forecast horizons however, the VAR model in annual differences is better. When comparing periodic versus seasonal cointegration models, we find that the seasonal cointegration models tend to yield better forecasts. Finally, there is no clear indication that multiple equations methods improve on single equation methods.     

On the Coexistence of Banks and Markets*

We examine the coexistence of banks and financial markets by studying a credit market where the qualities of investment projects are not observable and the investment decisions of entrepreneurs are not contractible. Standard banks can alleviate moral‐hazard problems, while financial markets operated by investment banks can alleviate adverse‐selection problems. In competition, standard banks are forced to increase repayments, since financial markets can attract the highest‐quality borrowers. This, in turn, increases the share of shirkers and may make lending unprofitable for standard banks. The coexistence of financial markets and standard banks is socially inefficient. The same inefficiency may occur with the entrance of sophisticated banks, operating with a combination of rating and ongoing monitoring technologies.     

Transitions: Two steps from theory to policy

This paper bridges a gap between emergent transition theories and the policy maker facing societal transitions when making long-term policy. Using a two-step approach the abstract concepts are linked to the realm of the policy maker. First the forces underlying transitions are identified and second where they can be found is presented. For this a conceptual map of societal systems, the clover model, is introduced. With the clover model the structures, cultures and practices of societal systems can be found. Furthermore, intermediate changes are systematically treated to track the phases of a transition. These transition diagnostics are supplemented with recommended policy frameworks.     

Cointegration Analysis of Seasonal Time Series

This paper reviews various recent approaches to cointegration analysis of seasonal time series. In addition to the usual decisions concerning data transformations and univariate time series properties, it is necessary to decide how seasonal variation is included in the multivariate model and how standard cointegration methods should accordingly be modified. Seasonal cointegration and periodic cointegration methods are discussed, as are some of their recent refinements. An overview of further research topics is also provided.