How quickly do forecasters incorporate news? Evidence from cross‐country surveys

Using forecasts from Consensus Economics Inc., we provide evidence on the efficiency of real GDP growth forecasts by testing whether forecast revisions are uncorrelated. As the forecast data used are multi‐dimensional—18 countries, 24 monthly forecasts for the current and the following year and 16 target years—the panel estimation takes into account the complex structure of the variance–covariance matrix due to propagation of shocks across countries and economic linkages among them. Efficiency is rejected for all 18 countries: forecast revisions show a high degree of serial correlation. We then develop a framework for characterizing the nature of the inefficiency in forecasts. For a smaller set of countries, the G‐7, we estimate a VAR model on forecast revisions. The degree of inefficiency, as manifested in the serial correlation of forecast revisions, tends to be smaller in forecasts of the USA than in forecasts for European countries. Our framework also shows that one of the sources of the inefficiency in a country's forecasts is resistance to utilizing foreign news. Thus the quality of forecasts for many of these countries can be significantly improved if forecasters pay more attention to news originating from outside their respective countries. This is particularly the case for Canadian and French forecasts, which would gain by paying greater attention than they do to news from the USA and Germany, respectively. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Turnaround strategy: A study of restaurant firms

This paper uses a case study approach to analyze the turnaround actions of two restaurant firms and compares them to the model of Robbins and Pearce [1992. Strategic Management Journal 9, 287–309]. The objective of this study is to scrutinize why these firms were unsuccessful in turning around and identify gaps between the firms’ actions and the empirical model of turnaround proposed by Robbins and Pearce. Two key turnaround measures, i.e., retrenchment and recovery are explored in detail and discussed in the context of the firms. The need for studying turnaround strategies is warranted as the number of hospitality firms that perish because of unsuccessful turnaround strategies is on the increase. Since turnaround strategies have not been pursued vigorously as a stream of research within the hospitality industry context, this approach would provide a framework for hospitality researchers to initiate similar future research efforts, which in turn would help the industry cope with turnaround.     

The role of expectations in the determination of consumer satisfaction

The purpose of this paper is to explore the three determinants of consumer satisfaction, i.e. Predictive Expectations, Normative Expectations and Comparative Expectations. This study applied the confirmation of expectations paradigm to each of the types of expectations. The efficacy of the paradigm in the prediction of consumer satisfaction is examined. Comparative analyses of the three types of expectations show that normative expectations and their confirmation are the best predictors of satisfaction. Suggestions for further research on measurement and conceptual development of consumer satisfaction are also offered.     

A tax-based motive for the underpricing of initial public offerings

This paper presents a model of entrepreneurial wealth maximization for the pricing of initial public offerings (IPOs). It is an extension of one previously presented in the literature. The model shows that personal tax rates on ordinary income and capital gains may, in part, determine IPO pricing: an increase in the capital gains tax rate should lower the degree of underpricing. An empirical analysis of the effect of the Tax Reform Act of 1986, which raised the capital gains tax rate, shows that the average degree of underpricing did decrease as predicted, and that this occurs after controlling for other possible influences.     

Investing in Socially Responsible Companies is a must for Public Pension Funds – Because there is no Better Alternative

>With assets of over US$1.0 trillion and growing, public pension funds in the United States have become a major force in the private sector through their holding of equity positions in large publicly traded corporations. More recently, these funds have been expanding their investment strategy by considering a corporations long-term risks on issues such as environmental protection, sustainability, and good corporate citizenship, and how these factors impact a companys long-term performance. Conventional wisdom argues that the fiduciary responsibility of the pension funds trustees must be solely focused on their beneficiaries and, therefore, their investment criteria must be based strictly on narrowly defined financial measures. It is also asserted that well-established financial measurements of corporate performance already include long-term risk assessment through discounted present value of future flow of earnings. Consequently, all other criteria are contrary to the best interest of the pension funds beneficiaries. In this paper, we assert that, contrary to conventional wisdom, pension funds, and for that matter other mutual funds, must be concerned with the long-term survival and growth of corporations. These measures are generally referred to socially responsible investing (SRI) and when applied to corporations, it is termed socially responsible corporate conduct (SRCC). We demonstrate that current measurement of future risk assessment invariably understates, and quite often completely overlooks, these long-term risks because of the inherent bias towards short-run on the part of financial intermediaries whose compensation depends greatly on short-term results. Furthermore, there is ample evidence to suggest that these intermediaries have been engaging in self-serving practices and thus failing in their duties to serve their clients, i.e. pension funds, best interests. Because of their large holdings in the total market as well as individual companies, these funds cannot easily divest from poorly performing companies without destabilizing the companies stock and overall markets. Hence, they must opt for a strategy of emphasizing investment criteria that encourage companies to take into account long-term aspects of their operations in terms of their impact on environment, sustainability, and community welfare, to name a few. We argue that an exclusionary, and even a primary, focus on short-term financial criteria is no longer a viable option. It also calls for the pension funds to encourage greater transparency and accountability of the entire corporate sector through improved corporate governance. Thus socially responsible investing practices are not merely discretionary and desirable activities; they are a necessary imperative, which both the corporations and public pension funds, and other large institutional holders, will ignore at serious peril to themselves. Finally, the paper considers some of the recent developments where corporations have been responding to these challenges and how their actions might be strengthened through greater disclosure and transparency of corporate activities. It also makes recommendations for the pension funds to support further research in creating new measurement standards that further refine the concept of socially responsible investing as a necessary ingredient of long-term corporate survival and growth in the context of a changing economic, environmental and socio-political dynamic.     

Access to Finance,Financial Development and Firm Ability to Export: Experience from Asia–Pacific Countries

With particular reference to Asia–Pacific countries, the present study examines how access to finance and financial development affects firms’ ability to enter export markets. Using firm‐level data from the World Bank Enterprises Survey, we found that access to finance plays a significant role in improving firms’ ability to export. In addition, development of the financial sector fosters export market entry. Among the financial development indicators, reach of the banking sector variable is most prominent. The present study suggests that improvements in access to finance and financial development (increases in the reach of the banking sector) enable firms operating away from capital or major cities to enter export markets easily. The present study supports policy intervention to strengthen access to the financial sector, which would encourage firms to export, and to facilitate export market entry for remotely located firms.