Technological Progress with Segmented Labor Markets

It is argued here that with segmented labor markets, all types of technological progress in the fixed wage organized sector always hurts the unorganized or informal workers. However, such technical progress in the informal sector always helps the informal workers. This result is independent of the factor intensity ranking between the sectors.     

Technical Progress and Real Wages Once again

We construct a general equilibrium model of trade and show that an economy can experience technological progress and declining real wages provided that it is open to trade and import demand is sufficiently inelastic in both countries. This is a puzzling outcome so far as marginal productivity paradigm is concerned. In this context we demonstrate that new technology works differently in a closed vs an open economy. In an open economy, technical improvements may generate a fall in labor real earnings, but not in a closed economy. In addition, technical progress in manufacturing must increase manufacturing–service wage gap according to marginal productivity doctrine. We show that the opposite outcome can occur theoretically in an open economy—yet another seemingly puzzling labor market outcome.     

The US Trade Deficit and the Rate of Interest

It is well known that nations with high trade deficits normally have higher interest rates than those with surplus or balanced trade. However, such has not been the case with the USA, which has seen a relentless trade deficit since 1982. Its interest rates have been lower than those prevailing in many trade‐surplus nations. Furthermore, these rates fell even as the trade shortfall shot up, generating an interest‐rate paradox. This paper demonstrates that, unlike for other nations, the rising trade deficit itself became the cause of lower US interest rates, and this happened because of the world's strong interest in maintaining a high value of the dollar.     

Exchange rate pass-through: A generalization

The extent of exchange rate pass-through has been playing an increasingly pivotal role in the transmission of exchange rate shocks and adequate policy responses. We develop a model of exchange rate pass-through that allows the stochastic process of exchange rate to include the lagged values of the velocity of money. We show that the likelihood and extent of pass-through is sensitive to the lagged response.     

Forecasting in efficient bond markets: Do experts know better?

Term structure theory suggests that bond rates in efficient markets approximately follow a random walk. We show that the random walk forecasts of 10-year U.S. Treasury and Moody's Aaa corporate bond rates for 1988–2005 are generally unbiased. Blue Chip forecasts, however, are both biased and inferior to random walk forecasts. Both models produce unbiased forecasts of the default spread, with the random walk again outperforming the Blue Chip. In addition, Blue Chip fails to accurately predict directional change. Emphasizing that the success of the random walk model is theoretically expected, we discuss why experts fail to beat random walk predictions.     

LINK BETWEEN DOMESTIC R&D AND INFLOW OF FDI: A GAME-THEORETIC ANALYSIS

Abstract.  The empirical literature has generated mixed correlations between research and development (R&D) undertaken by domestic firms and the inflow of foreign direct investment (FDI) by their multinational rivals. Further, the existing theoretical explanations of such empirical results appear to be inadequate. This study presents an alternative game-theoretic explanation for the observed correlations. The results show that the seemingly contradictory observed mixed correlations can be explained in an encompassing model in terms of the multinationals' competitive and interactive assessment of the efficiency and expenditure consequences that domestic R&D could generate for the undertaking domestic competitors.     

Predictions of growth in U.S. corporate profits: Asymmetric vs. symmetric loss

This study evaluates the Federal Reserve and private forecasts of growth in corporate profits for 1984-2004. These forecasts are both rational and directionally accurate but suggest different loss structures. The Federal Reserve forecasts tend to significantly under-predict and imply asymmetric loss. The private forecasts, however, are free of such bias, suggesting symmetric loss. Given that the Federal Reserve forecasts are made to help with policymaking, our findings point to the Fed's cautiousness not to incorrectly predict the downward moves in growth in corporate profits. The private forecasts are made by experts who (with a strong profit-motivated interest) attempt to generate financial gain and thus predict the upward moves as accurately as the downward moves.     

An evaluation of private forecasts of interest rate targets in Brazil

This study shows that the private sector accurately predicts short-term interest rate targets set by the Brazilian monetary authorities. With increased transparency under inflation targeting, such evidence suggests that the public perceives the central bank as credible.     

Trade Reform and Informal Wages

When trade reform contracts protected formal sectors in developing countries and the formal workers move to the informal sector for employment, does that reduce informal wages? Using a 2 × 2 Heckscher–Ohlin–Samuelson (HOS) structure with formal–informal production organization for the same commodity, we show that a tariff cut in the import‐competing sector increases both informal wage and employment under very reasonable assumptions. An increase in the price of the export commodity will also increase informal wages, although aggregate informal employment unambiguously falls even if the informal export sector is labor intensive. Furthermore, the formal–informal segmentation of each sector opens up an interesting, hitherto unexplored, possibility that the informal export sector may contract despite a price increase in this sector. Change in the overall size of the export sector is also ambiguous and conditional on the relative strengths of changes in these two segments.     

The role of export subsidies in balance-of-payment crises

This paper investigates the effects of export subsidies when capital goods are imported for use in production of export goods. Export subsidies increase the demand for foreign capital at the expense of domestic consumption. The increase in the capital stock raises the real wage rate while leaving the real rental rate unchanged. However, if the speed of capital accumulation exceeds the savings rate, deterioration of the trade balance may occur. We show thereby that export subsidies can be linked to balance-of-payment crises.