Too Good to be True? An Analysis of the Options Market's Reactions to Earnings Releases

Using option implied risk neutral return distributions before and after earnings announcements, we study the option market's reaction to extreme events over earnings announcements. While earnings announcements generally reduce short‐term uncertainty about the stock price, very good news does not reduce uncertainty and slightly bad news actually increases uncertainty. We also find that left tail probabilities decrease over earnings releases while right tail probabilities increase. We interpret these findings as evidence of maintained investor expectations that very good news is generally not released during earnings announcements, combined with skepticism in the form of lingering uncertainty at the release of such very good news.     

Trade with Time Zone Differences: Factor Market Implications

The main purpose of this study is to illustrate, with a simple two‐factor (skilled and unskilled labor) model, how a time‐saving improvement in business‐services trade benefitting from differences in time zones can have an impact on national factor markets. In doing so, we intend to capture the situation where the night‐shift work in one country is replaced by the day‐shift work in another country. In other words, we will show that trade with time zone differences will result in shifts of the relative supplies and demands for skilled labor around the globe.     

Profit reducing international outsourcing

Recent empirical evidence shows a negative relationship between international outsourcing and profitability. This paper provides a theoretical explanation for this phenomenon. We show that, in an oligopolistic market, firms earn lower profits in the outsourcing equilibrium compared to the situation where neither firm does outsourcing, and this holds irrespective of the intensity of competition. We show that whether international outsourcing is likely to reduce profit under more intense competition (measured by the degree of product differentiation, number of firms and the type of product market competition, namely, Cournot and Bertrand competition) is ambiguous. We further show that international outsourcing may be socially ‘excessive’ for the sourced country and for the world.     

Urban informal sector and poverty

Many studies have explored the connection between trade and poverty theoretically and empirically for the developing world. We offer another look at the possible implications of trade liberalization on urban poverty by using the urban informal sector as a catalyst. The theory shows that trade liberalization in the import competing sector raises informal wage across occupational types, and expands production and employment in the informal industrial segment. Further, using Indian provincial data on wage, capital stock and value added in the informal sector we show that real informal wage increased with trade reform and transmitted favorable impact on urban poverty reduction.     

THE IMPACT OF GOVERNMENT EXPENDITURE ON GROWTH: EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE FROM A HETEROGENEOUS PANEL

This paper investigates the impact of government expenditure on growth, in a heterogeneous panel, for a sample of developing countries. Using generalized method of moments techniques, we show that countries with substantial government current expenditure have strong growth effects, which vary considerably across the nations.     

Competitive trade models and real world features

Competitive small-dimension international trade models perform well in comparing free (or restrictive) trade with autarky, especially in emphasizing that consumption patterns can differ from production patterns and that production becomes highly concentrated while consumption patterns are expanded. Variations on these small-dimensional models can usefully show how with trade production patterns may nonetheless be more diverse and a country’s labor force become more heterogeneous in its skills. The paper illustrates how the Middle Products framework can be reinterpreted to support variety in production and in labor skills.      

International Outsourcing and R&D: Long‐Run Implications for Consumers*

We show that international outsourcing and R&D by the outsourced firm may be either substitutes or complements. Outsourcing increases the R&D investment in small markets and in highly competitive product markets, whereas it decreases the R&D investment in large markets. If the outsourced firm can be technologically very efficient under exporting, outsourcing can make the consumers worse off by reducing the R&D investment. If there is skill differential in the production process and outsourcing occurs only in the unskilled activities, R&D‐reducing outsourcing occurs in a relatively low‐skilled industry. If outsourcing of the unskilled jobs reduces the effective cost of the skilled workers by increasing the productivities of the skilled workers, outsourcing provides further disincentive for R&D compared to the situation where outsourcing of the unskilled jobs does not affect the effective cost of the skilled workers.     

Minimum wage,trade and unemployment in general equilibrium

The path‐breaking work of Card and Krueger, showing that a higher minimum wage can increase employment, turned the age‐old conventional wisdom on its head. This paper demonstrates that this apparently paradoxical result is perfectly plausible in a competitive general equilibrium production structure of a small open economy with a non‐traded good, without recourse to monopsony, spatial heterogeneity, heterogeneity of consumers and so on, the usual theoretical drivers behind the result. Following Jones and Marjit, we build a simple general equilibrium model with production complementarity and we show that a higher minimum wage can raise aggregate employment. Expansion in the non‐traded sector following a wage hike may be consistent with the overall expansion of the export sector in a multi‐good framework, an unlikely outcome in a conventional two‐good model which cannot accommodate with production complementarity.     

UNIFORM TECHNICAL PROGRESS: CAN IT BE HARMFUL?

Abstract.  In a model incorporating trade in final goods, intermediate goods and capital, we show how 'uniform' technical progress across sectors can lead to immiserization. The condition for immiserizing technical progress crucially depends on the pattern of specialization. Our results tend to hold in a more general specification of the basic structure.