Surfing the waves of globalization: Asia and financial globalization in the context of the trilemma

Using the “trilemma indexes” developed by Aizenman et al. (2010) that measure the extent of achievement in each of the three policy goals in the trilemma—monetary independence, exchange rate stability, and financial openness—we examine how policy configurations affect macroeconomic performances, with focus on the Asian economies. We find that the three policy choices matter for output volatility and the medium-term level of inflation. Greater monetary independence is associated with lower output volatility while greater exchange rate stability implies greater output volatility, which can be mitigated if a country holds international reserves (IR) at a level higher than a threshold (about 20% of GDP). Greater monetary autonomy is associated with a higher level of inflation while greater exchange rate stability and greater financial openness could lower the inflation rate. We find that trilemma policy configurations affect output volatility through the investment or trade channel depending on the openness of the economies. Our results indicate that policy makers in a more open economy would prefer pursuing greater exchange rate stability while holding a massive amount of IR. Asian emerging market economies are found to be equipped with macroeconomic policy configurations that help the economies to dampen the volatility of the real exchange rate. These economies’ sizeable amount of IR holding appears to enhance the stabilizing effect of the trilemma policy choices, and this may help explain the recent phenomenal buildup of IR in the region.     

A VAR ANALYSIS OF THE EFFECT OF HOUSING LOAN POLICY

Abstract.  I investigated the effect of the Government Housing Loan Corporation (GHLC) housing loan policy on housing starts in Japan, employing the VAR model for the first time in the area of Japanese housing policy. A lowering of the interest rate of GHLC home loans increased housing starts up to the point where the budget exceeded the actual amount of GHLC home loans granted. I found that the amount of GHLC home loans was effective in increasing housing starts up to the point of structural change, after which the effect was seen to lessen.     

IMPERFECT INFORMATION AND DIFFERENCES IN HOME OWNERSHIP INVESTMENT

Abstract. We study the extent to which differences in home ownership investment are caused by differences in information known about the property. We study the advantages accruing to buyers who have complete information and who can pay less than the equilibrium price if sellers undervalue their properties. The reduction in home ownership investment can increase consumption or investment in other assets. We develop an empirical model to capture the gain to such buyers. We estimate this to have been 12.6%?27.6% of the equilibrium price of houses at maximum in the Tokyo metropolitan area during the 1980s.     

沪深300指数期货价格随机利率效应研究

经典持有成本模型在非随机利率假设无法满足的条件下仅仅是远期合约而非期货的定价模型。本文采用拟合SHIBOR曲线的方法生成无风险纯折现债券模拟价格序列,对沪深300指数期货价格的随机利率效应进行了实证检验。研究结果表明,由于利率管制、股指期货市场和货币市场发展不成熟等因素的共同作用,沪深300指数期货价格中不含随机利率效应,指数远期和期货理论价格相等;如果持有成本模型其他假设条件也得到满足,则该模型可以用于沪深300指数期货定价。     

我国碳排放权市场发展路径之研究

对国内外碳排放权市场的运行机制和发展状况进行了分析,剖析了各种碳排放权市场机制的特点,并创造性地将其与我国国情相结合,探讨了我国碳排放权市场的发展路径。现阶段我国尚未完全具备建立强制性减排交易市场的基本条件,但是鉴于未来碳排放权市场的重要性,我国应该把发展碳排放权市场作为一项长期战略。我国碳排放权市场可以采取如下发展路径:第一步,培育和壮大我国自愿抵消市场;第二步,借鉴美国经验发展类似CCX的会员制自愿减排交易市场,同时借鉴印度经验适当发展CDM单边项目并以此为基础建立CDM二级市场;第三步,在条件成熟的情况下推出强制性减排交易市场。     

Does supporting employees' career adaptability lead to commitment,turnover, or both?

Today, employees are encouraged to become more career‐resilient and engage in career development activities to deal with changes in required knowledge, skills, and abilities, and to facilitate their mobility. This study found that participation in decision making (PDM) and autonomy, along with supervisory career support (information, advice, and encouragement), fostered this career adaptability. These practices were also positively associated with commitment and negatively with intentions to leave. However, career adaptability was positively associated with both commitment and intentions to leave, suggesting some unintended consequences for management approaches supporting career adaptability. Implications for research and practice are discussed. © 2005 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

The rise and fall of deficit in Japan, 1965–1990

This paper investigates the fifteen-year period when the Japanese government deficit (defined as the deficit bond issues to the general budget) rose sharply and shrank to zero. Our main contribution is to differentiate the budget “plan” and the “actual” (ex post) budget in order to distinguish intention and surprise. From 1976 to 1979, deficit bonds were considered to be deliberately increased, because of little surprise (deviations of actual from planned budget) in deficits for these years. The deficit ratio was brought down in the 1980s, mainly by freezing expenditures at the nominal level and waiting for bracket creeps in taxes to catch up. Beyond a trend increase in the 1970s and a trend decrease in the 1980s, the Japanese government acted to pursue a fiscal expenditure fine-tuning.     

Understanding the decline in Japan's saving rate in the new millennium

The decline in Japan's household saving rate accelerated sharply after the domestic banking crisis in 1997/98, but then decelerated again from around 2004/05. Such nonlinear movement in the saving rate cannot be explained by the monotonic trend of population aging alone. First, we statistically confirm the existence of such nonlinearity in aggregate data. Second, extending the life-cycle and the permanent income hypothesis (LCPIH), we exhibit that a significant decline in household income growth in the late 1990s and early 2000s plays a major role in creating the sharp saving rate decline in the same period. Third, using income and consumption data from the Family Income and Expenditure Survey, it is shown that different saving rate variations of different age groups, responding to heterogeneous income shocks, have contributed to generating the recent aggregate saving rate fluctuations. In particular, the income slow down in early 2000s of older working households provide a major contribution to aggregate saving rate decline.     

Remittances and the Dutch Disease: Evidence from the Republic of Moldova

This paper analyzes the linkage between exports, real effective exchange rates, and workers’ remittances in the Republic of Moldova based on impulse response functions through a vector autoregressive model. We find that an inflow of remittances leads to an appreciation of real exchange rate and a decline of exports, but the magnitude is small. Another finding is that the exchange rate appreciation does not affect remittance transfers for the first three-quarters.