Bridging the gap between foresight and market research: Integrating methods to assess the economic potential of nanotechnology

This paper discusses how to bridge the gap between foresight research oriented to the long-term, and traditional market research oriented to the medium to short term, when applied to an early stage of a technology's life cycle. It proposes using an integrating approach, i.e. a combination of methods and both foresight and traditional market research. A mix of complementary methods for the acquisition and analysis of data is presented in a case study. This helps to overcome the deficits of some qualitative foresight methods and quantitative methods often used in traditional market research and allows us to examine research results from the different methods applied both on their own and as a group. In the absence of a single fully-fledged and accepted economic approach, this paper argues that combined market research and foresight modules are the best possible approach for analyzing the economic potential of emerging technologies like nanotechnology. In the future, similar applications of such market foresight modules may be useful, for example, as elements of foresight. They will also be useful in studies of emerging technologies (e.g. converging technologies, cognitive science and Web 2.0) where traditional market research does not produce a realistic market assessment.     

On the non-existence of oligopolistic equilibria in differentiated products spaces

In a large class of product differentiation models á la Hotelling, the firms' payoffs in the game involving location in the differentiated products space exclusively depends on the distance to their neighbouring firms, rather than on the firms' locations proper. This leads to a degeneracy on the firms' strategy space. Using alternative equilibrium concepts, this is shown to be the reason for the non-existence of non-cooperative equilibria, especially if the firms' technologies are not identical.     

Do Developing Countries Need a Development Box?

Do Developing Countries Need a Development Box? Developing country proposals for a Development Box focus on changes to WTO rules on agricultural trade that would enable them to address more effectively their objectives related to food security, poverty alleviation and economic development. Yet, there are few instances where developing countries have been constrained in the policies they can adopt. This does not mean that demands for a Development Box are pointless, for if the next WTO agreement is to have a real impact on rates of protection, there will be a need for tighter commitments in both developed and developing countries. Hence proposals for a Development Box can be seen as an insurance policy, given the prospect of deeper multilateral reforms. There is a strong case for easier access to safeguards, under which developing countries could temporarily apply higher tariffs on food security crops when world prices are depressed below threshold levels. There may be an economic justification for expanding the types of domestic support measures that developing countries can employ, in those rare cases where policies would otherwise be constrained. However, these demands should not constrain progress on the most important issue; namely, how OECD countries can do more for developing countries through improvements in market access, the elimination of explicit and implicit export subsidies, and reductions in trade‐distorting domestic support. Faut‐il une boite spéciale pour le développement ? Les propositions des pays en développement en vue ?établir une ‘boîte pour le développement’à?OMC sont centrées sur ?idée qu'il convient de modifier les règies du commerce international agricole, afin de leur permettre ?aborder de façon plus efflcace leurs problèmes spécifiques de sécurité alimentaire, de réduction de la pauvreté et de développement économique. Pourtant, il existe peu ?exemples de situations dans lesquelles un pays en développement ait pu être gêné dans ?adoption ?une politique particulière. Cela ne veut pas dire qu'une boîte pour le développement soit inutile: si le prochain accord à?OMC doit avoir un effet réel sur les taux de protection, des engagements encore plus stricts seront nécessaires de la part, aussi bien des pays en développement que des pays développés. II en résulte que les propositions en vue ?une ‘boîte pour le développement’ peuvent être considérées comme une politique ?assurance, dans ?optique de réformes multilatérales plus approfondies. II y a des raisons sérieuses pour faciliter le recours aux clauses de sauvegarde, grâce auxquelles les pays en développement pourraient imposer temporairement des droits plus élevés sur les denrées importantes pour leur sécurité alimentaire lorsque les cours mondiaux descendent en deçà?un certain seuil. Il peut exister une justification économique à?extension des catégories de soutien que les pays en développement peuvent employer, dans les cas peu fréquents où les engagements pris seraient contraignants à cet égard. Mais surtout, il faut que les pays en développement prennent garde à ne pas entraver les progrès dans les domaines vraiment importants, à savoir ce que les pays de ?OCDE peuvent faire pour eux en améliorant ?accès aux marchés, en eliminant les subventions implicites et explicites aux exportations, et en réduisant les mesures de soutien intérieures qui affectent les échanges. Benötigen Entwicklungsländer eine Development Box? Die Vorschläge der Entwicklungsländer für eine Development Box zielen auf Änderungen in den Agrarhandelsvorschriften der WTO ab; es soil ihnen ermöglicht werden, ihre Zdele hinsichtlich der Nahrungsmt‐telsicherheit, Armutsbekämpfung und Wirtschaftsentwicklung wirkungsvoller zu verfolgen. Bis heute jedoch wurden die Entwicklungsländer nur in wenigen Fällen bei der Ausgestaltung bestimmter Politikmaßnahmen eingeschränkt. Damit ist nicht gesagt, dass Forderungen nach einer Development Box zwecklos sind, denn wenn sich das kommende WTO‐Abkommen tatsächlich auf die Protektionsraten auswirken soil, werden sowohl den entwickelten Ländern als auch den Entwicklungsländern mehr Verpflichtungen abverlangt werden. Daher können Vorschläge für eine Development Box als eine Versicherungspolirik vor dem Hintergrund der Aussicht auf tiefergreifende multilaterale Reformen angesehen werden. Es spricht vieles für einen einfacheren Zugang zu Schutzmaßnahmen, unter denen Entwicklungsländer vorübergehend höhere Zölle auf pflanzliche Erzeugnisse mit Bedeutung für die Nahrungsmittelsicherheit erheben könnten, wenn die Weltpreise unterhalb von Schwellenwerten liegen. Es mag aus ökonomischer Sicht eine Rechtfertigung für die Ausdehnung der inlandischen marktstützenden Maßnahmen geben, welche Entwicklungsländer anwenden dürfen; dies kann sinnvoll sein, wenn andernfalls, allerdings in seltenen Fällen, Politikmaßnahmen eingeschränkt werden müssten. Diese Forderungen sollten den Fortschritt bei den allerwichtigsten Themen jedoch nicht behindern; OECD‐Länder können mehr für Entwicklungsländer tun, und zwar durch Verbesserung des Marktzugangs, durch die Abschaffung von expliziten und impliziten Exportsubventionen und durch Kürzungen bei den handelsverzerrenden Inlandssubventionen.     

The Instability of the Money Demand Function: An I(2) Interpretation

Some studies have suggested that although money and prices appear to be I(2) processes, real money balances are I(1) and this transformation preserves an important long-run relationship between money and prices. In this paper we present evidence indicating that the success of such a nominal-to-real transformation depends upon the particular monetary aggregate under consideration. It turns out that imposing long-run price homogeneity does not remove all I(2) components from a model of aggregate broad UK M4, but it does prove successful in the case of sectoral components of M4. Since recent research on money demand functions finds more stable relationships between sectoral components of M4 and aggregate demand, our analysis seems to point to a direct link between the existence of I(2) components and the stability of different money demand functions.     

Approximating Large Diversified Portfolios

This paper considers a financial market with asset price dynamics modeled by a system of lognormal stochastic differential equations. A one‐dimensional stochastic differential equation for the approximate evolution of a large diversified portfolio formed by these assets is derived. This identifies the asymptotic dynamics of the portfolio as being a lognormal diffusion. Consequentially an efficient way for computing probabilities, derivative prices, and other quantities for the portfolio are obtained. Additionally, the asymptotic strong and weak orders of convergence with respect to the number of assets in the portfolio are determined.     

Stabilising Citizen and Consumer Expectations by Legal Means when Introducing the Euro in the Participating Member States

The author discusses the introduction of the euro from a consumer law point of view. The paper refers to the report of the Euro Working Group of the EC Consumer Committee. Dual indication of prices, continuity of contracts, costs, and transparency are discussed and solutions suggested. The recommendations recently adopted by the EC Commission have taken up some of these points but the proposals are far from satisfactory.