Global and Country‐Specific Output Growth Uncertainty and Macroeconomic Performance

We identify global and country‐specific measures of output growth uncertainty for a large OECD country sample by means of a dynamic factor model with stochastic volatility. We find evidence for major bouts of global uncertainty in the early 1970s and late 2000s, and a number of periods with elevated levels of either global or national uncertainty, particularly in the early 1980s, 1990s and 2000s. VAR impulse responses of national macroeconomic variables to our estimated measures of uncertainty reveal that global uncertainty is the major driver of macroeconomic performance in most countries, whereas the impact of national uncertainty is small and frequently insignificant. We also find that uncertainty is transmitted primarily through investment and trade flows rather than through consumption demand.     

Taylor rules and the Canadian–US equilibrium exchange rate

This paper identifies the Canadian–US equilibrium exchange rate based on a simple structural model of the real exchange rate, in which monetary policy follows a Taylor-rule interest rate reaction function. The exchange rate is explained by relative output and inflation as observable variables, and by unobserved equilibrium rates as well as unobserved transitory components in output and the exchange rate. Using Canadian data over 1974–2009 we jointly estimate the unobserved components and the structural parameters using the Kalman filter and Bayesian technique. We find that Canada's equilibrium exchange rate evolves smoothly and follows a trend depreciation. The transitory component is found to be very persistent but much more volatile than the equilibrium rate, resulting in few but prolonged periods of currency misalignments.     

Entrepreneurship and the theory of taxation

A review of the literature on firm taxation reveals that the economics of entrepreneurship has not sufficiently been taken into consideration. We discuss how this affects conclusions derived from standard models of capital taxation when applied to entrepreneurial income. Some defining features of entrepreneurship important for analyzing the effects of taxation of owner-managed firms are identified. These include the lack of a well-functioning external market for entrepreneurial effort, limited access to external capital and complementarities between entrepreneurial innovation, effort and capital. Due to these constraints, the entrepreneurial project is tied to the individual owner–manager. The entrepreneur is unable to decouple saving decisions from investment decisions, and makes joint decisions on the supply of effort and capital. The return from successful entrepreneurial ventures can therefore not be readily divided into labor and capital income, in deep contrast to what is typically assumed in taxation theory. It is argued that when distinct attributes of entrepreneurship are taken into account, certain conclusions of capital taxation models may no longer hold, including the neutrality of capital taxation in owner-managed firms. Cost of capital formulas derived from the behavior of public firms could underestimate distortions when applied to the investment behavior of entrepreneurial firms. For tax purposes and otherwise, it becomes useful to analyze return to entrepreneurial activity as income of a distinct factor of production. In this context, conceptual issues and the difficulties of measuring entrepreneurial income are discussed.     

Taxation and the quality of entrepreneurship

We study the effect of taxation on entrepreneurship, investigating how taxes affect both the number of start-ups and their average quality. We show theoretically that even with risk neutral agents and no tax evasion progressive taxes can increase entrepreneurial entry, while reducing average firm quality. So called “success taxes” encourage start-ups with lower value business ideas by reducing the option value of pursuing better projects. This suggests that the most common measure used in the literature, the likelihood of entry into self-employment, may underestimate the adverse effect of taxation.     

Using vignettes to study family consumption processes

The use of vignettes for qualitative consumer research is discussed in this article. More specifically, vignettes are proposed as a useful research technique for conducting systematic and rigorous studies of consumer interaction processes, in particular as these relate to family consumption issues. Following an overview of methodological and practical problems of studying consumption interaction processes in families, a discussion of how vignettes may be used to enhance knowledge of family decision‐making processes in real‐life contexts is presented. Design implications are discussed and strategies for applying the vignette method are outlined and illustrated by two recent studies of pro‐environmental consumer behavior in a family context. The paper concludes with a discussion of the benefits and the possible pitfalls of using vignettes. © 2010 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

Kulturelle Intelligenz, Distanz und Anpassung von Führungskräften im Ausland.

The cultural adjustment of expatriates is argued to have a central impact on the success of foreign assignments. In consequence, drivers of cultural adjustment are of practical as well as theoretical significance. This paper examines the role of cultural intelligence (CQ) for the cultural adjustment of expatriates. The subsequent study uses data from managers on foreign assignments in Singapore. Furthermore, the study analyzes the moderating effect of cultural distance on the relationship between CQ and cultural adjustment. Findings are that different CQ-dimensions influence the dimensions of cultural adjustment to different degrees. In addition, an unexpected moderating effect of cultural distance on the relationship between the metacognitive CQ-dimension and general adjustment is identified. The results provide implications for the field of international HRM. The study particularly supports the underlying assumption of the paper that CQ should be considered in staffing decisions for foreign assignments. From a theoretical perspective, the study provides empirical support for three of the four constructs of the CQ-dimensions.     

The international mobility of billionaires

This paper uses data from Forbes Magazine’s list of billionaires, supplemented with other publicly available information, to study the migratory behavior of the very rich. Billionaires are more likely to move to countries that share a language and a culture with their country of birth and to countries with larger markets, higher incomes, and lower capital taxes. In total, only 15 % of self-made billionaires—almost all of whom are entrepreneurs—migrated to another country. One explanation for the modest rate of migration may be the country-specificity of entrepreneurs’ human capital. Eight out of ten migrants select a destination country with higher per capita income than that of their birth country, and seven out of ten move to a country with lower capital taxes.     

Modelling spikes and pricing swing options in electricity markets

Most electricity markets exhibit high volatilities and occasional distinctive price spikes, which result in demand for derivative products which protect the holder against high prices. In this paper we examine a simple spot price model that is the exponential of the sum of an Ornstein–Uhlenbeck and an independent mean-reverting pure jump process. We derive the moment generating function as well as various approximations to the probability density function of the logarithm of the spot price process at maturity T. Hence we are able to calibrate the model to the observed forward curve and present semi-analytic formulae for premia of path-independent options as well as approximations to call and put options on forward contracts with and without a delivery period. In order to price path-dependent options with multiple exercise rights like swing contracts a grid method is utilized which in turn uses approximations to the conditional density of the spot process.     

A replication note on unemployment in the OECD since the 1960s: what do we know?

Nickell et al. (Econ J 115(500):1–27, 2005) argue that unemployment rates cointegrate with labour market institutions in a panel of OECD countries. This paper replicates their Maddala–Wu panel cointegration test and shows that this test is only valid when (i) the number of countries tends to infinity and (ii) the underlying country-specific cointegration tests are independent. Their finding of cointegration does not survive when small sample properties and heterogeneous cross-sectional dependencies are taken into account. We acknowledge financial support from the Interuniversity Attraction Poles Program, Belgian Science Policy, contract no. P5/21. The usual disclaimer applies.