Does Accrual Management Impair the Performance of Earnings‐Based Valuation Models?

This study examines how accrual manipulations affect firm valuation in the years surrounding the passage of the Sarbanes‐Oxley Act (SOX). We compare the absolute percentage pricing errors of RIM and DCF valuation models for a group of US firms suspected to have engaged in accrual manipulations to avoid a small loss or a small earnings decline vs. ‘Normal’ firms matched on industry, year and size. We find that RIM can better estimate intrinsic value than DCF for the matched Normal firms in the pre‐SOX period, but not so for accrual manipulators, and that SOX mitigates the harmful effect of accrual manipulations, completely eliminating the difference in RIM's accuracy advantage over DCF between Normal firms and accrual manipulators. As a further analysis, we redefine Suspect firms as real‐activity manipulators and find a significant across‐group difference in accuracy wedge in both sample periods, implying that SOX has prompted firms to favor real‐activity manipulations over accrual manipulations.     

换汤不换药?游客满意度测量的迷思

在旅游体验研究中,游客满意度一直是个重要问题,游客满意度影响积极口碑、忠诚和重访.目前,游客满意度研究主要以期望-不一致模型为基础,认为满意是期望与不一致的函数,而没有从期望-不一致模型的适用条件、旅游产品享乐消费的特点出发,考虑使用该模型测量游客满意度的效度问题.文章通过深度访谈和参与观察发现,对游客满意度的测量并不满足期望-不一致模型的前提条件,即预测性旅游期望并不总是存在.游客满意度与在场体验阶段的互动、所得收益和所做牺牲的比较、对相似产品消费经验的比较有关,而不只是表现与预测性期望相比较的结果.尽管已有研究使用其他方法测量游客满意度,但并未触及游客满意度问题的核心.研究认为,对游客满意度的测量理应测量对体验的满意度,测量旅游者的情感体验,而不只是对产品物理属性和服务质量的测量.将使用移动技术获得的实时情感数据与访谈相结合,有助于旅游目的地或企业了解旅游者在自然情境中的情感体验和满意度,进而有效地设计、管理体验,保持竞争力,实现经济效益.     

河南省产业集聚区产业创新过程中存在的问题与对策研究

本文采用实地调查、访谈法和网络调查法相结合的方法，对河南省产业集聚区产业创新状况进行了研究。研究发现河南省产业集聚区产业创新主体——地方政府、企业、高校/科研院所均存在影响产业创新的因素。为解决创新过程中存在的问题，本文在将产业创新划分为共性创新和个性创新两种类型的基础上，针对不同类型的产业创新提出了明确的、具有可操作性的解决策略，为助推河南省工业经济的发展提供了有效的智力支持。     

From elite capture to marginalization of the poorest: a new social exclusion in anti-poverty programmes in China

Based on a case study of state-directed aid resources in anti-poverty programmes, we detected a new phenomenon of social exclusion in China. In a period of several years, a shift is observed from elite capture to marginalization of the poorest. This phenomenon occurs under the administrative pressure from the authoritarian state and the morbid democratic mechanism. Contemporary structural changes in economic and social culture also make it difficult for marginal people to escape from this predicament. From a social structural transformation point of view, we suggest that the marginalization of the poorest should be seriously taken into consideration in rural development programmes and policies.     

The price of going green: the role of greenness in green bond markets

In this paper, we empirically investigate how greenness information is priced in the green bond market. Our comparison of liquidity-adjusted yield premiums of green bonds versus synthetic conventional bonds indicates that, on average, there is no robust and significant yield premium or discount on green bonds. However, green bonds certified by an external reviewer enjoy a discount of about 6 bps. Furthermore, green bonds that obtain a Climate Bonds Initiative certificate show a discount of around 15 bps. The findings suggest that a universally accepted greenness measure can benefit the development of the green bond market.     

农户生态耕种行为及其影响因素研究——以江西省为例

[目的]为清晰识别影响农户生态耕种行为的主要因素,以期为加强耕地生态保护、保障农作物质量安全、提升农户耕种收益、实现农业现代化目标提供参考。[方法]基于江西省11市47县(区)1488份农户微观调查数据,在分析农户生态耕种特征基础上,运用二元Logistic和Probit模型对农户生态耕种行为影响因素开展实证研究。[结果]农户生态耕种10种具体行为的采纳情况差异明显,其中施用有机肥采纳程度最高,生态农业模式采纳程度最低。农户采纳生态耕种整体水平不高,但仍具备进一步推广的潜力。家庭劳动力比重、生态耕种成本认知、新型农业经营主体、法律法规认知、生态耕种收益认知、生计分化和生态环境认知等解释变量是影响农户生态耕种行为的主要内部因素,政府补贴、农田基础设施、生产交流程度、耕地质量变化和生态耕种信息获取难度等则是主要的外部影响因素。[结论]政府及基层管理部门应在推动农户非农就业生计、大力培育新型农业经营主体、加强生态耕种宣传与推广、完善政策扶持与管控机制等方面制定针对性的政策措施。     

互联网发展与创新绩效:三维理论框架和异质性验证

在新一轮科技革命背景下，企业经济活动越来越依赖于互联网，因此探讨中国互联网发展能否有效提升创新绩效，具有重要的理论价值和现实意义。文章构建了互联网发展影响创新绩效的三维理论框架，同时从"质量-数量"二分视角，采用2011-2016年省际面板数据，借助面板个体效应模型对二者相关关系予以实证分析，研究结论如下：（1）互联网通过去壁垒、去中心、去中介，从要素、组织、生产范式三个维度分别经由要素重组、组织变革和供需迭代促进了创新绩效。（2）在全国层面，互联网发展和创新质量间存在U型关系，而互联网发展与创新数量间则表现为倒U型关系，且拐点值存在明显差异。（3）在分区域层面，东中西部互联网发展与创新质量间分别呈现出U型、U型、倒U型关系，与创新数量则均表现为倒U型关系。（4）由于不同省份2016年互联网发展水平分布在拟合线拐点两侧的位置不同，各省份未来政策着力点有所差异。（5）数据驱动、生态网络、用户主导分别与互联网发展深度复合影响了创新绩效，但在显著度上存在差异。综上，应从互联网建设、推广与应用，研判区域异质性，发挥调节变量的正向效应三方面重点突破，最大化互联网创新绩效，促进经济高质量发展。     

我国会展设计岗位人才基本情况调研分析

本文从国内会展设计公司的组织营运、从事会展设计行业的从业人员基本情况等方面进行了阐述和分析,通过行业最前沿的数据和佐例,总结出会展行业设计岗位人才的基本能力要求。     

军民科技协同创新要素融合机制研究

构建一体化国家战略体系和能力是新时代实施军民融合战略的重要目标，军民科技协同创新则是实现该目标的必然选择。基于扎根理论建立军民科技协同创新影响因素体系，通过分析影响因素间的交互关系构建系统动力学模型。根据模型对案例进行仿真分析，考察单因素作用、多因素协同作用、多因素非协同作用条件下协同创新水平变化情况。从军民科技协同创新内涵、结构、功能实现3个层面揭示要素融合机制。据此，为国家军民深度融合提供相应政策建议。     

Does economic policy uncertainty raise corporate precautionary cash holdings? Evidence from China

Using China as the research setting, this paper investigates the relationship between economic policy uncertainty and corporate precautionary cash holdings. Empirical results show a U-shaped relation between economic policy uncertainty and corporate precautionary cash holdings. Empirical analysis, in terms of ownership structure, firm size, corporate competitiveness and geographical location, further shows that (i) the effects for economic policy uncertainty in both state-owned and non-state-owned enterprises are significant, but the effect is stronger for state-owned enterprises; (ii) such significant effect is also found more strongly in small and medium-sized enterprises and highly competitive enterprises; and (iii) the effects for eastern, central and western China are all statistically significant, but the effect is strongest for eastern China.