出口贸易、FDI与我国企业的国际化路径选择——新-新贸易理论模型扩展及我国分行业企业数据的实证研究

我国企业应该继续扩大出口还是转而对外直接投资,它们应该如何在不同的国际化路径间抉择,是当前我国经济发展和转型中的一项重要课题和难题.本文以国际贸易前沿的新-新贸易理论框架为基础,扩展了理论模型,得出生产率高的企业应该选择对外直接投资,而生产率低的企业应该选择出口贸易的结论.同时,选取我国36个行业的1997-2006年的数据,用三种不同的方法估算和矫正行业全要素生产率,并将理论应用到实际,解析和得出了我国不同行业应有的国际化路径选择.     

人民币即期汇率与NDF汇率关系的实证分析

以人民币即期汇率与NDF汇率为例研究境内市场与境外市场的信息传递。主要利用GARCH模型描述人民币即期汇率与NDF的变动并检验人民币即期汇率与NDF之间的均值溢出效应和波动溢出效应。得到的主要结论为,人民币NDF市场对人民币即期汇率市场有均值溢出效应,人民币即期汇率和NDF之间有双向波动溢出效应。这表明信息流由境外市场传导至境内市场,人民币即期汇率市场受到境外市场因素的影响,境外人民币NDF市场是境内即期市场的先导。     

我国公共服务均等化的路径选择

经济欠发达、社会转型和体制转轨等基本国情决定了我国公共服务均等化实现方式的多元化。完善政府间财政转移支付制度只是实现公共服务均等化的一种调节性手段,仅从此着手是不可能从根本上解决问题的。公共服务供给和成本分担机制是实现公共服务均等化的基础性制度规范,财政支出结构调整、加强对公共服务市场化的监管以及促进区域社会经济协调发展等在实现公共服务均等化方面也发挥着重要的作用。我国只有在构建服务型政府的前提下,以基础性制度规范的改革作为基本切入点,同时将调节性制度规范的调整有机地结合在一起,才能顺利实现公共服务的均等化。     

全球价值链的微观视角:基于企业层面的综述

全球价值链理论自产生以来,中外相关研究成果颇丰,但是大量的研究仍主要集中在宏观、中观层面,基于企业层面的研究不多,尚且存在一定的缺陷。为此,在综述全球价值链的基础上,从企业层面对相关问题进行研究,以便能更深入、全面地了解该领域的理论探讨和实证研究成果,以期为国内企业如何嵌入全球价值链、摆脱被俘获等问题的探索提供一个基础平台。     

政区建制乡城变迁对地区经济增长的影响——基于浙江省台州市路桥区的个案分析

城乡二元分割的外化是政区建制的城乡分化。地区政区建制的乡城变迁对于一个地区的经济发展有着重要的影响。20世纪90年代前后,中国较频繁地使用行政区划调整政策。对于这些行政区划调整政策的政策效应,存在褒贬不同的两派意见。以浙江省台州市路桥区为样本,利用倍差法对其1994年政区建制乡城变迁对地区经济增长的影响进行政策效应分析,结果显示:在控制了建制变迁之后的人均资本、人口密度等因素的变化后,样本地区的政区建制变迁对地区经济增长起到了积极的正面影响。     

INTERIM REPORTING PRACTICES BY COMPANIES IN BAHRAIN: PREPARATION OF INTERIM ACCOUNTS AND EARLY ADOPTION OF IAS 34

This study examines the preparation of interim accounts and adoption of International Accounting Standard 34 (IAS 34) by companies in Bahrain. Data was gathered through questionnaires returned from 31 companies listed on the Bahrain Stock Exchange (BSE). It was found that although 87.6% of the sample did prepare interim reports, only 65.5% have adopted IAS 34. Four hypotheses were tested to determine the factors influencing the early adoption of IAS 34. A discriminant analysis model was employed and three variables namely, size, profitability and leverage were found significant as the most discriminating variables between the early adopters and non-adopters. The predictive power of the model was found to be more than 80%. Companies prepare interim reports for a variety of purposes including management control and listing requirements.     

Pilferage from opaque food subsidy programs: Theory and evidence

Theft rates from subsidized food programs vary greatly and strongly influence program efficiency. Unfortunately, the determinants of these variations remain understudied because the agencies that run these programs seldom publicize the allocations of subsidized food to local markets. We develop a theoretical model of pilferage which predicts that: (i) pilferage from opaque programs is likely to rise more than proportionately with per capita food allocations; (ii) pilferage of inferior goods may be lower in poorer communities; (iii) pilferage rates need not rise as price subsidies are increased; and (iv) pilferage may rise as the relative quality of subsidized food is reduced. A comprehensive literature review and new estimates of pilferage across regions of the Philippines validates these predictions. Our finding, that around 48% of the subsidized rice went missing, is robust to new tests for sampling and recall error. Our policy discussion encourages geographic over administrative targeting, greater transparency in food allocations, and the use of realistic quotas.     

Information exchange under uncertainty: The case of unconventional gas development in the United Kingdom

New techniques of unconventional oil and gas extraction, such as hydraulic fracturing, challenge current political, institutional and administrative practices in how to regulate activities in the underground. Conflicts of interests between economic promotion, landscape and natural resource protection, and new trends on energy markets are further intensified by the fact that techniques of oil and gas extraction come with a considerable amount of uncertainties regarding ecological and health impacts. Information exchange is one important aspect of how political actors try to reduce uncertainties and conflicts. Based on exponential random graph models (ERGM) for network data, we analyze to what degree ideologies, public authority, existing collaboration and scientific expertise drive information exchange in hydraulic fracturing regulation in the United Kingdom. Results show that technical and political information exchange have to be disentangled, and that the former is driven by expertise and existing collaboration, the latter by ideology, public authority and existing collaboration.     

渐进式科技创新推动产业升级：文献述评及展望

科技创新分为激进式科技创新和渐进式科技创新，渐进式科技创新更具普遍性和常态性，是产业升级的重要推动力。自2008年金融危机以来，激进式科技创新对产业升级的推动成为研究的焦点，而渐进式科技创新未得到应有关注。渐进式科技创新具有短周期性、连续性、累加性、递进性和开放性，风险较低且可控，可以通过促进激进式科技创新的成果转化推动产业升级，通过促进知识积累、吸收和独占能力提升产业绩效，通过创造差异化获取产业竞争优势。新时代的创新驱动战略，既要重视激进式科技创新，也应重视渐进式科技创新，通过对现有产业技术的改进逐步实现内涵式扩大再生产。