Data sources for the credit-card augmented Divisia monetary aggregates

In 2013, the Center for Financial Stability (CFS) initiated its Divisia monetary aggregates database, maintained within the CFS program called Advances in Monetary and Financial Measurement (AMFM), based on Barnett (1980, 2012). The CFS will soon be making available Divisia monetary aggregates extended to include the transactions services of credit cards. The extended aggregates will be called the augmented Divisia monetary aggregates and will be available to the public in monthly releases. The new aggregates will also be available to Bloomberg terminal users. The theory on which the new aggregates are based is provided in Barnett and Su (2014).¹ In this paper, we provide detailed information on the data sources used in producing the new augmented Divisia monetary aggregates.     

能源经济与政策研究中的数据问题

近年来,能源经济与政策研究文献大幅增长,其中绝大多数属于经验研究或政策模拟分析,所使用的基础数据大多来源于政府部门或者国际组织发布的宏观统计资料或者在线数据库。目前有的研究存在较多基础数据问题,从而可能导致结论出现偏误。为厘清各统计量之间的逻辑关系、减少数据滥用或者误用的可能性、增强研究过程的透明度和研究结果的可比性,本文从经济学和国民经济核算等视角讨论了能源经济与政策研究中的数据问题。在开展能源经济研究时,需要明确界定系统的边界,明晰输入量和输出量,传统的发电煤耗法等线性加总方法可能会导致研究结论出现偏误,应用Divisia能源加总方法要更为精准。不同的数据源口径往往不同,来自统计部门的能源数据与经济数据可能并不完全匹配,国内外能源数据口径及其核算方法也存在较大差异。如果不注意这些差异,直接进行数据大小比较是不可取的,甚至可能会导致一些没有科学意义的争议。     

Monitoring in Multiagent Organizations*

This paper studies how to assign “monitors” to productive agents in order to generate signals about the agents' performance that are most useful from a contracting perspective. We show that if signals generated by the same monitor are negatively (positively) correlated, then the optimal monitoring assignment will be “focused” (“dispersed”). This holds because dispersed monitoring allows the firm to better utilize relative performance evaluation. On the other hand, if each monitor communicates only an aggregated signal to the principal, then focused monitoring is always optimal since aggregation undermines relative performance evaluation. We also study team‐based compensation and randomized monitoring assignments. In particular, we show that the firm can gain from randomizing the monitoring assignment, compared with the optimal linear deterministic contract. Furthermore, under randomization, the conditional expected utility for the agent is higher when the agent is not monitored compared with the case where the agent is monitored. That is, the chance of being monitored serves as a “stick” rather than a “carrot”.     

梧州市承接东部产业转移进程中的人才集聚对策初探

人才聚集是顺利承接产业转移的基础保障之一,它将为梧州承接东部产业转移提供有力支持。针对现阶段梧州市人才集聚的现状与存在的问题,企业作为载体应该在内部建立一种"呼吁"机制,政府则应该努力为人才集聚营造外部支持环境,二者通过交互作用来有效促进梧州市的人才集聚。     

Human capital aggregation and relative wages across countries

Most of the growth accounting literature relies on an aggregate production function to determine the contribution of factors of production relative to that of total factor productivity (TFP) in explaining differences in incomes across countries. I show that the importance of TFP in accounting for cross-country income differences depends crucially on how skilled and unskilled labor are aggregated. Further, cross-country evidence on the relationship between relative wages and relative endowments of skilled and unskilled labor suggests that the two types of labor should not be aggregated into a single factor of production. Growth accounting decomposition using a commonly used nested-CES aggregate production function that allows skilled and unskilled labor to be used as separate factors of production results in a significantly greater role for TFP in accounting for income differences across countries than that found by past studies. The finding that different aggregate production functions lead to significantly different conclusions about the role of TFP in accounting for cross-country income differences calls for a more general approach to understanding such differences.     

生产性服务业集聚对区域技术转移的作用机制

以协同创新为中介变量、环境规制为调节变量,构建生产性服务业集聚与技术转移二者关系的理论模型。以我国2002-2015年省域数据为样本,采用多元回归分析法对生产性服务业集聚影响区域技术转移的作用机制进行研究。结果显示：生产性服务业集聚对区域技术转移有正向影响;协同创新对生产性服务业集聚与区域技术转移的关系发挥中介作用;环境规制对协同创新与区域技术转移间的关系具有正向调节作用;环境规制对生产性服务业集聚与区域技术转移间关系的调节作用通过多主体协同创新的中介效应实现。结论可为揭示生产性服务业集聚对区域技术转移的作用机制提供理论依据,为推动生产性服务业集聚、多主体协同创新和区域技术转移提供实践参考。     

International Financial Aggregation and Index Number Theory: A Chronological Half-century Empirical Overview

This paper comprises a survey of a half century of research on international monetary aggregate data. We argue that since monetary assets began yielding interest, the simple sum monetary aggregates have had no foundations in economic theory and have sequentially produced one source of misunderstanding after another. The bad data produced by simple sum aggregation have contaminated research in monetary economics, have resulted in needless “paradoxes,” and have produced decades of misunderstandings in international monetary economics research and policy. While better data, based correctly on index number theory and aggregation theory, now exist, the official central bank data most commonly used have not improved in most parts of the world. While aggregation theoretic monetary aggregates exist for internal use at the European Central Bank, the Bank of Japan, and many other central banks throughout the world, the only central banks that currently make aggregation theoretic monetary aggregates available to the public are the Bank of England and the St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank. No other area of economics has been so seriously damaged by data unrelated to valid index number and aggregation theory. In this paper we chronologically review the past research in this area and connect the data errors with the resulting policy and inference errors. Future research on monetary aggregation and policy can most advantageously focus on extensions to exchange rate risk and its implications for multilateral aggregation over monetary asset portfolios containing assets denominated in more than one currency. The relevant theory for multilateral aggregation with exchange rate risk has been derived by Barnett (J Econom 136(2):457–482, 2007) and Barnett and Wu (Ann Finance 1:35–50, 2005).

创新资源集聚对区域创新绩效的溢出效应

在运用区位熵方法测度创新资源集聚水平的基础上,基于知识生产函数模型,实证研究高校和高技术产业创新资源水平对区域创新的溢出效应。结果表明：①当前高校单一创新资源集聚水平对不同地区创新绩效的溢出效应具有不确定性,其中对东部和中部地区具有负向影响,对西部地区具有显著正向影响;高技术产业单一创新资源集聚水平整体上呈现出显著正向溢出效应;②整体而言,创新资源的交互作用对区域创新绩效的溢出效应多与单一创新资源集聚对区域创新绩效的溢出效应呈相反态势;③无论是高校还是高技术产业,其单一创新资源集聚水平对各地区创新绩效的溢出效应并非简单的线性关系;④两种创新资源集聚的交互作用表现出明显的协同效应,且单一创新资源集聚水平过低或过高都会抑制创新绩效的提升。据此,提出优化我国创新资源配置、促进我国区域创新能力提升的相关建议。     

协同创新网络、人才集聚效应与创新绩效关系研究

协同创新网络和人才集聚效应是影响创新绩效的重要因素,但已有文献很少对协同创新网络、人才集聚效应与创新绩效之间关系的影响机理和作用路径进行研究。基于太原市168家科技型企业的问卷调查数据,运用相关分析、多元回归和中介效应检验等方法验证了协同创新网络、人才集聚效应与创新绩效之间的关系。研究结果表明：协同创新网络对人才集聚效应具有显著正向影响,协同创新网络对创新绩效具有显著正向影响,人才集聚效应对创新绩效具有显著正向影响,人才集聚效应在协同创新网络对创新绩效的影响中起部分中介作用。     

高技术产业科技人才聚集效应与技术创新协同研究

根据协同与熵理论,分析科技人才聚集效应与技术创新复合系统的耗散结构特性及协同机理。采用中国高技术产业相关数据,运用复合系统协同度模型,对人才聚集效应与技术创新系统的协同度和有序度进行测度。研究结果表明,1997-2011年,高技术产业科技人才聚集效应与技术创新复合系统协同度总体上不断提升,协同等级从不协同逐渐转变为优质协同。同时,从熵理论分析视角,解释了复合系统熵增空间的变化过程。最后,提出了促进人才聚集效应与技术创新协同发展的政策建议。