银行危机宏观影响因素变迁的实证研究

本文选择了108个国家在1980-2009年的样本数据,采用随机系数Logit模型,研究了宏观因素冲击对于银行危机的影响作用。研究结果表明,各种宏观因素的影响程度在不同经济发展水平国家的银行危机中具有明显的差异;银行体系的资产质量和流动性风险暴露是银行危机产生的最主要原因;且随着金融自由化和国际化的发展,银行危机的发生原因也逐渐发生变化。因此,与时俱进地采取某些监管措施,例如限制银行贷款增速、监控银行跨境资本流动、控制外债规模等,有助于降低银行危机发生的概率。     

A CRITICAL REVIEW OF CONTAGION RISK IN BANKING

The recent financial crisis has focused the attention of scholars and policymakers on how to improve financial stability through better macro‐prudential regulation and supervision. In this paper, we compare the existing theoretical and empirical literature on contagion through the banking system. It is argued that the structure of the interbank market, the size of banks, the linkages among them, the level of correlation of their investments and the transparency of the regulator are key factors in determining the possibility of contagion. We discuss the different findings and present avenues for future research.     

Larger crises cost more: Impact of banking sector instability on output growth

We propose a method for calculating the macroeconomic costs of banking crises that controls for the downward impact of recessions on banking activity. This method uses an event-study approach and a multiple-equation identification and estimation technique. In contrast to earlier research, we estimate the cost of crises based on the size of banking crises. The extent of a crisis is measured using banking sector aggregates. The results, based on our method and data from over 100 banking crises, suggest that it is the size of the crisis that matters for economic growth. Lower credit and money growth during crises cause GDP growth to decline.     

银行效率的决定因素：跨国实证

本文基于1990—2009年间68个主要国家和经济体的面板数据，从管理效率、市场竞争性和盈利能力三个基本方面对影响一国银行业效率的相关因素进行了实证分析。实证结果表明：从宏观经济政策来看，保持宏观经济的持续稳定增长，稳步推进资本账户开放，将有助于提高一国银行业的整体效率；从银行产业发展来看，银行业效率的提高需要在保持适度资产规模和产业集中度的基础上，防止银行信贷的过度扩张和银行危机的发生；从制度文化发展来看，加强产权保护，促进社会信用文化水平的提升，将有助于一国银行业效率的整体提升。     

Identifying changes and trends in Hong Kong outbound tourism

Despite the numerous research endeavors aimed at investigating tourists’ preferences and motivations, it remains very difficult for practitioners to utilize the results of traditional association rule mining methods in tourism management. This research presents a new approach that extends the capability of the association rules technique to contrast targeted association rules with the aim of capturing the changes and trends in outbound tourism. Using datasets collected from five large-scale domestic tourism surveys of Hong Kong residents on outbound pleasure travel, both positive and negative contrasts are identified, thus enabling practitioners and policymakers to make appropriate decisions and develop more appropriate tourism products.     

The duration of new firms in banking: an application of Cox regression analysis

This paper studies the duration of two cohorts of entrants in the Italian financial intermediation industry. Using the Cox (1972) Proportional Hazards Model, it analyses the link between duration of each newborn firm and its start-up size, as well as a series of industry-specific characteristics. It emerges that not only did regulatory reform in 1990 result in a process of branch proliferation and industry concentration, but it also set in motion a pre-entry selection mechanism. Conversely, before completion of the regulatory reform, in 1989, entry was possible even for very small firms, and larger new entrants survived longer than their smaller counterparts, and this independently of the features of spatial and structural competition. First version received: Nov. 98/final version received: Oct. 99     

DOES MONOPOLISTIC COMPETITION EXIST IN THE MENA REGION? EVIDENCE FROM THE BANKING SECTOR

The goal of this paper is to empirically assess the level of banking competition in selected Middle East and Northern African (MENA) countries. The analysis employs the estimation of a non‐structural indicator (H‐statistic) introduced by Panzar and Rosse and draws upon a panel dataset of eight MENA countries (Algeria, Egypt, Israel, Jordan, Morocco, Oman, Saudi Arabia, and United Arab Emirates) over the period 1997–2012. The empirical findings are robust towards three different panel data econometric techniques (Ordinary Least Squares, Pooled Generalized Least Squares with Fixed Effects, and Generalized Method of Moments) and consistent with other similar studies, providing sufficient evidence in favour of a banking monopolistic competition regime. Furthermore, the estimation of three other alternative measures of competition (Lerner index, adjusted Lerner index, and conduct parameter) provides similar results, revealing that the banking sector in the MENA region is characterized by a low level of Significant Market Power (SMP). Overall, the analysis shows that, despite similarities in the process of financial regulatory reforms undertaken in the eight MENA countries, the observed competition levels of banks vary substantially, with Algeria and Morocco consistently outperforming the rest of the region.     

高校学生科技社团建设与发展的思考

高校学生社团是高校校园文化的重要载体,是学生扩大求知领域、培养合作精神、提高创新能力的主要平台。目前,高校社团百花齐放、百家争鸣的同时,在其建设与发展上依然存在些许问题。本文结合山东农业大学行知学社的发展历程,就如何加强与完善学生社团建设,发挥社团作用,真正达到育人内涵提出一些可行性建议。     

Marketing in Russia

ABSTRACT

This paper offers a study of the development of the commercial banking system in two East European countries. Based on surveys conducted in Hungary and Poland, the authors discuss elements of the competitive market structure in the banking sector. Findings indicate that the commercial banks in Hungary and Poland have become more competitive, but there are differences between the two countries, especially in the way that the banks use sources of foreign funds.     

Regret theory and the banking firm: The optimal bank interest margin

This paper examines the optimal bank interest margin, i.e., the spread between the loan rate and the deposit rate of a bank, when the bank is not only risk-averse but also regret-averse. Regret-averse preferences are characterized by a utility function that includes disutility from having chosen ex-post suboptimal alternatives. We show that the presence of regret aversion raises or lowers the optimal bank interest margin than the one chosen by the purely risk-averse bank, depending on whether the probability of default is below or above a threshold value, respectively. Regret aversion as such makes the bank less prudent and more prone to risk-taking when the probability of default is high, thereby adversely affecting the stability of the banking system.