The dynamic interactions among the stock,bond and insurance markets

This paper explores the lead–lag relationships and the dynamic linkages among stock, insurance and bond markets in the developed countries. This is the first empirical study which sheds light on the extent and magnitude of the association among these financial markets used by the Granger causality test of Toda and Yamamoto (1995), generalized impulse response approach, and generalized variance decomposition in a multivariate setting. Our empirical results illustrate that there are indeed various patterns of dynamic relationships. The direction of causality appears to differ across countries. While investigating these interactive relationships under unexpected shocks, there is a one-way significant influence between the life insurance premium and long-run interest rate. These empirical findings serve as valuable applications not only for investors to diversify their risk away as well as to earn the abnormal return, but also for policy-makers to allocate resources more efficiently.     

连续融资假说与可转换债券赎回条款设计初探——兼析中美与我国台湾赎回条款设计差异及原因

赎回条款是一个重要的可转换债券条款.从公司连续融资的视角看,赎回条款有利于有真实投资期权价值的未来融资.通常具有不久到期的投资期权的公司发行弱赎回保护,并提供短的保护期;具有较晚到期的投资期权的公司发行强赎回保护,且保护期较长.美国发行的可转换债券与此规律相符,中国大陆和台湾地区发行的可转换债券与此规律不相符.中美台可转换债券赎回条款设计的差异,与三地可转换债券融资的相关规定和可转换债券市场的发育程度有关.     

Pricing of off‐balance sheet debt: how do bond market participants use the footnote disclosures on operating leases and postretirement benefit plans?

In this study, we examine whether the public debt market prices information on off‐balance sheet debt arising from operating leases and postretirement plans. We find that bond‐rating agencies price off‐balance sheet debt arising from operating leases and the coefficient on off‐balance sheet debt measure of operating leases is similar to that of capital leases on the balance sheet. Regarding postretirement benefit plans, we find that bond‐rating agencies do price postretirement benefit obligations that are reported in balance sheet but do not price such obligations disclosed in footnotes. We find similar results when we examine corporate bond yields on new debt issues.     

非金融企业债务融资工具非公开定向发行研究

为促进银行间债券市场需求的差异化、多样化,活跃市场交易、推动市场发展,中国银行间市场交易商协会于2011年4月29日发布《银行间债券市场非金融企业债务融资工具非公开定向发行规则》。这是我国银行间债券市场发行方式上的一大创新。本文在对银行间债券市场发展历程进行回顾的基础上,对非公开定向发行的主要特点与运行制度安排进行了详细分析。比较了非公开定向发行与公开发行的六点差异。在此基础上,本文列举了推出非公开定向发行方式的四点重要意义。最后,本文对发展中应予重视的五类风险进行了系统剖析。     

指数关联债券——城市公租房建设融资的途径探索

《十二五规划纲要》中提出的五年内建设3600万套保障性住房至少需要投资4万亿元,其中绝大部分需要地方政府融资.针对其中公租房存在的融资瓶颈,本文分析了发行市政债券的必要性,提出发行一种创新型产品——指数关联债券(Index Linked Bond),以促进地方政府的信用建设,改善融资环境.另外,本文量化分析了公租房的造...     

意大利国债续发行制度对我国的启示

与国外发达的政府债券市场相比,我国在通过续发行制度提高国债流动性、提高关键期限国债的市场地位、促进国债定价效率方面,还存在明显的不足。本文以意大利国债市场为分析对象,对其相关的续发行制度设计、国债期限安排、理论依据进行分析,指出我国国债市场存在流通期次过多、单期国债流通量过低的问题,并从国库现金管理、交易机制和投资者结构等方面,尝试为未来我国国债续发行制度框架提供有价值的建议。     

发行高新技术企业高收益债券的探讨

发行高新技术企业高收益债券有利于培育和发展战略性新兴产业、解决技术创新融资困境、深化金融改革、丰富科技和金融结合的内涵。目前我国发行高新技术企业高收益债券的条件已经具备,时机已经成熟,建议适时推出。与此同时,我国还需要在发行和交易规则、配套制度建设以及推动形成规范统一的债券市场等方面给予前瞻性关注。     

构建我国统一互联债券市场的路径分析

目前,我国债券市场由相互分割的交易所债券市场、银行间债券市场和商业银行债券交易柜台三个市场构成。整个市场在交易主体、托管体系和监管主体方面存在割裂现象,阻碍了我国债券市场的进一步发展,严重影响了我国资本市场有机整体的形成和发展。商业银行重返交易所债券市场、构建统一的债券托管体系、理顺债券市场监管体系三者有机结合,是构建我国统一互联的债券市场的重要路径。其中,主体联通是基础,托管联通是平台,监管联通是保障。     

The role of no-arbitrage on forecasting: Lessons from a parametric term structure model

Parametric term structure models have been successfully applied to numerous problems in fixed income markets, including pricing, hedging, managing risk, as well as to the study of monetary policy implications. In turn, dynamic term structure models, equipped with stronger economic structure, have been mainly adopted to price derivatives and explain empirical stylized facts. In this paper, we combine flavors of those two classes of models to test whether no-arbitrage affects forecasting. We construct cross-sectional (allowing arbitrages) and arbitrage-free versions of a parametric polynomial model to analyze how well they predict out-of-sample interest rates. Based on US Treasury yield data, we find that no-arbitrage restrictions significantly improve forecasts. Arbitrage-free versions achieve overall smaller biases and root mean square errors for most maturities and forecasting horizons. Furthermore, a decomposition of forecasts into forward-rates and holding return premia indicates that the superior performance of no-arbitrage versions is due to a better identification of bond risk premium.     

Risk factors in Australian bond returns

This study examines the risk factors in Australian bond returns. The study quantifies bond liquidity and estimates a liquidity risk factor in the Australian setting. We develop a three‐factor asset pricing framework that uses term, default and liquidity risk factors to explain the variation of Australian bond returns. Our findings corroborate the US evidence on the pervasiveness of these risk factors faced by bond investors. The three‐factor model developed in this study has practical applications when calculating the cost of debt, evaluating the performance of an active bond fund manager and hedging underlying risk in a bond portfolio.