Super-exponential growth expectations and the global financial crisis

We construct risk-neutral return probability distributions from S&P 500 options data over the decade 2003–2013, separable into pre-crisis, crisis and post-crisis regimes. The pre-crisis period is characterized by increasing realized and, especially, option-implied returns. This translates into transient unsustainable price growth that may be identified as a bubble. Granger tests detect causality running from option-implied returns to Treasury Bill yields in the pre-crisis regime with a lag of a few days, and the other way round during the post-crisis regime with much longer lags (50–200 days). This suggests a transition from an abnormal regime preceding the crisis to a “new normal” post-crisis. The difference between realized and option-implied returns remains roughly constant prior to the crisis but diverges in the post-crisis phase, which may be interpreted as an increase of the representative investor׳s risk aversion.     

中国服务业生产率与规模报酬分析

服务业的快速发展对促进中国经济增长与解决农村剩余劳动力转移问题具有重要的现实意义.本文通过建立超越对数生产函数的经济计量模型,定量分析了1990-2001年中国服务业的生产率与规模报酬状况,并计算了决定中国服务业增加值的两种投入要素资本和劳动的边际产出弹性、替代弹性与边际生产率,最后分析了这一估计结果对今后发展中国服务业的政策含义.     

Non-Existence of the First Moment of the Adjusted Least Squares Estimator in Multivariate Errors-in-Variables Model

The linear normal multivariate errors-in-variables model is considered. The model involves an equation error. It is proved in both structural and functional cases that the first moment of the adjusted least squares estimator does not exist.     

DISPARITIES IN THE BENEFITS FROM DEMOCRATIC REFORM IN NIGERIA: A GENDER PERSPECTIVE

There is data evidence that welfare has improved post–democratic reform in Nigeria. However, the distribution or concentration of the benefits in subgroups of the population is unknown. In this paper, the question of differential welfare impacts across and within gender following democratic reform in Nigeria is explored. Two related hypotheses are investigated. First, there is no disparity in the income and returns-to-education benefits of democratic reform across genders in Nigeria. Second, there are no within-gender disparities in the impact of democratic reform on income and returns to education in Nigeria. From the results, both hypotheses are rejected. Though men and women both benefitted from democratic reforms, economically significant within- and between-gender differences exist.     

HUMAN CAPITAL MEASUREMENT: A SURVEY

Abstract After a short history of the concept of human capital (henceforth HC) in economic thought ( Section 1 ), this study presents the two main methods for estimating the value of the stock of HC – the retrospective and prospective one – with a review of the models proposed ( Section 2 ). These methods are linked both to the theory of HC investment as a rational choice ( Section 3 ), the literature analysing the contribution of HC investment to economic growth and the HC estimating method through educational attainment ( Section 4 ). The more recent literature on HC as a latent variable is also assessed ( Section 5 ) and a new method of estimation where HC is seen both as an unknown function of formative indicators and as a ‘latent effect’ underlying earned income is proposed ( Section 6 ). Section 7 concludes.     

Performance of the different RAROC models and their relation with the creation of economic value. A study of the largest banks operating in Brazil

This article approaches several different methodologies for calculation of the RAROC (Risk Adjusted Return on Capital) for Brazilian banks. Two questions gave reason to the study: whether the application of different methods for calculation of the RAROC would generate significantly different results?, and checking what is the connection between the RAROC and the generation of economic value, measured by the EVA (Economic Value Added), for the largest banks with operations in Brazil? The following methodologies for verification of the RAROC were applied: Buch’s Method (2011); Prokopczuk’s Method (2006); Prokopczuk’s Method (2006) with application of the VaR technique; Saunders’s Method (2007); Chapelle’s Method (2008); and the Smithon & Hayt Method (2001), by applying these parametric and non-parametric statistics in order to check the sensibility of the differences between models. This study has evidenced that, when we compare the methodology based on minimum capital with other methodologies, there are no significant differences, except in the few cases indicated. It is important to notice it only occurred in the case of the Bank of Brazil and it was concentrated in the comparison of the Creditmetrics models and in the methodology in which there is equivalence by the reference equity.     

The validity of Islamic art as an investment

This paper investigates the validity of Islamic art as an investment product. We examine the current and future market potential, as well as, performing a hedonic regression analysis on London auction sales from 1998 to 2007. The main findings of the research are; Islamic art returns out performed both the equity and debt markets over the last 10 years; increases in oil prices have a positive effect on art prices, Islamic terrorist attacks on the Western World significantly reduce the value of Islamic art; and that the increase in future buyers means the Islamic art market has the potential to grow very strongly over the coming years. All these indicate the strong potential of this form of art as an investment.     

Measuring operational efficiency of mobile operators in Japan and Korea

The paper analyzes operational efficiency of six major mobile operators in Japan and Korea over the time period 2002-2006 and the impact of possible influential factors on the efficiency. The empirical results reveal that overall Japanese mobile operators are more efficient than Korean mobile operators and that the operators with significant revenues do not necessarily achieve operational efficiency. Korean operators are almost situated in increasing returns to scale, whereas Japanese operators are in decreasing returns to scale except Softbank Mobile. Finally, geographical area, service quality, degree of competition, 3G network type, ratio of data service revenues, and ratio of 3G subscribers all have significant effects on the efficiency of operators.