中国OFDI技术创新效应的传导机制——基于资本要素市场扭曲视角的分析

本文尝试构建一个中国OFDI(对外直接投资)技术创新效应传导机制理论框架,并对资本要素市场扭曲影响OFDI技术创新效应的作用机制和结果进行拓展分析。研究表明:近年来中国企业OFDI对技术创新具有正向效果,且OFDI企业可以通过从劳动密集型向资本密集型的转型升级、提高管理效率以及生产效率这三个重要途径实现其技术创新能力的跃升;现阶段中国资本要素市场扭曲现象会显著抑制企业OFDI技术创新效应,作用机制是,资本要素市场扭曲作为干扰外部摩擦因子,通过降低企业资本要素密集度和生产效率等渠道抑制企业OFDI技术创新效果。本文进一步提出构建知识产权金融化建议,包含知识产权股权化、知识产权证券化和知识产权流动性机制等内容,以此引导更多金融资源和人力资源参与企业技术创新活动。     

Pitfalls and perils of financial innovation: The use of CDS by corporate bond funds

We use the financial crisis of 2007–2009 as a laboratory to examine the costs and benefits of teams versus single managers in asset management. We find that when a fund uses complex trading strategies involving the use of CDS team-managed funds outperform solo-managed funds. This may be due to the greater diversity of expertise, experience and skill of teams relative to single managers. During the financial crisis, however, the performance premium of teams becomes negative, which may be because of the slower decision times of teams, which are especially costly during times of rapidly changing market conditions.     

High-frequency credit spread information and macroeconomic forecast revision

We examine whether professional forecasters incorporate high-frequency information about credit conditions when revising their economic forecasts. Using a mixed data sampling regression approach, we find that daily credit spreads have significant predictive ability for monthly forecast revisions of output growth, at both the aggregate and individual forecast levels. The relationships are shown to be notably strong during ‘bad’ economic conditions, which suggests that forecasters anticipate more pronounced effects of credit tightening during economic downturns, indicating an amplification effect of financial developments on macroeconomic aggregates. The forecasts do not incorporate all financial information received in equal measures, implying the presence of information rigidities in the incorporation of credit spread information.     

员工创造力激发研究评述：多层次多视角机制与精神性动力

员工创造力是组织创新的先决条件和根本源泉，员工创造力激发成为经典的研究主题，并取得了相当丰富的研究成果，然而，国内却鲜见针对员工创造力激发机制进行全方位、多层面和多视角的梳理与总结。对员工创造力的激发机制研究进行系统回顾和深入分析，首先，从员工创造力激发的理论基础出发，总结员工创造力激发的经典理论；其次，按照个体、团队和组织的逻辑顺序对以往散见在各个组织层次的员工创造力激发机制进行多视角梳理和探讨。随着研究的深入，组织内精神性逐渐成为员工创造力激发的新兴动力，为此，从多个视角归纳基于精神性的员工创造力激发机制；最后，展望未来研究方向，以期推动员工创造力激发机制研究走向深入和完善。     

绿色创新生态系统生成机制研究

推动绿色创新生态系统生成是区域经济高质量发展的重要举措。通过分析绿色创新生态系统内涵和结构，基于超循环理论，探讨绿色创新生态系统生成过程，并利用江联重工集团案例分析，明确绿色创新生态系统形成动力要素。结果表明：绿色创新生态系统具有绿色发展性、生态性、动态演化性、高风险性和复杂性特征；绿色创新主体之间的相互作用关系，催生共生竞合、动态演化的超循环，而超循环体系能够加强绿色创新主体相互作用，推动绿色创新生态系统生成；资源配置与匹配效应、环境规制与市场导向、用户交互与敏捷响应、共生竞合与跨界整合是绿色创新生态系统生成的重要驱动因素。     

Seeking causality between liquidity risk and credit risk: TED-OIS spreads and CDS indexes

Since the Global Financial Crisis, credit risk and its management have become one of the most appealing topics in finance literature. In this study, we investigate the interaction of credit risk and liquidity risk through the TED and the OIS spreads and various credit default swap indexes from the CDX and the iTraxx family (CDXIG, CDXHY, ITEEU, and ITEXO). The empirical analysis is conducted through the Kapetanios unit root test, the EGARCH model, the Bootstrap Toda-Yamamoto modified Wald test and the asymmetric causality analysis. The results of symmetric and asymmetric causality methods reveal that liquidity risk appears to play an important role in credit risk, and in most cases, the TED and the OIS spreads dominate the CDS indexes. It can, thus, be concluded that the TED and the OIS spreads are superior to the CDS indexes as an early warning indicator in the credit market.     

Decomposing financial (in)stability in emerging economies

The analysis of the build-up of risks in emerging economies have traditionally been scarce and focused mostly on external risks, despite the recent substantial development of their financial system. This paper builds an index of financial vulnerabilities tailored to emerging economies, grouping 32 indicators around four poles: valuation and risk appetite, imbalances in the non-financial sector, financial sector vulnerabilities, and global vulnerabilities. It adopts a model-free approach, purposely departing from early warning models or complex econometric constructs, and rely on data made already available by international organisations. Our index of financial vulnerabilities enables a granular mapping of where risk originates and how it spreads to other parts of the financial system. Using various data visualisation tools and benefitting from the flexibility of our index’s methodology, we are able build a narrative of the evolution of financial stability in emerging economies from 2005 to 2015. Finally, we also discuss the relation between our index and both the business cycle (proxied by GDP) and the credit cycle (proxied by the credit-to-GDP gap).     

The provision of long-term credit and firm growth in developing countries

Do small and young firms benefit from an increase in the provision of long-term loans? By combining firm-level data from 62 countries (over the period 2006–2016) with a new database on short-term and long-term credit provided to the private sector, this article shows a higher provision of long-term credit does not stimulate growth of small and young firms. On the contrary, an increase in the availability of short-term credit spurs firm growth. The main explanation of this (counter-intuitive) result is the differential impact of short-term and long-term credit provision on small and young firms’ access to credit. Young and small firms are able to take advantage of an increase of short-term loans, which allow them to switch from informal finance to bank loans. However, a higher level of long-term credit does not alleviate credit constraints faced by opaque firms because these funds are allocated towards transparent borrowers.     

芪柏塌渍治疗小儿静脉炎的疗效及对TLR-4/核因子-κB信号通路的影响

目的观察芪柏塌渍对静脉炎的疗效,同时探讨其对TLR-4/核因子-κB信号通路上标志蛋白表达的影响。方法选取2018年1月至2019年6月大连市中心医院收治的40例静脉炎患儿作为研究对象,按随机数字表法分为常规组和试验组,各20例,另取20例健康儿童为对照组。对照组患儿取50%硫酸镁溶液浸湿的无菌纱布敷于发生静脉炎处,面积以超过静脉炎范围1~2 cm为宜,并用保鲜膜包裹于纱布外,每2小时换药1次,3 d为一个治疗周期。试验组用无菌棉签蘸取适量芪柏塌渍膏涂于发生静脉炎处,面积以大于静脉炎范围1~2 cm为宜,厚度0.2~0.5 cm,予以无菌纱布覆盖,最后用胶布固定,每4~6小时换药1次,3 d为一个治疗周期。于治疗前及治疗2个周期时,采用蛋白免疫印迹法检测外周血中TLR-4和核因子-κB水平变化,酶联免疫吸附试验(ELISA)检测患儿血清肿瘤坏死因子-α(TNF-α)、白细胞介素-11(IL-11)、白细胞介素-4(IL-4)、白细胞介素-33(IL-33)蛋白表达。结果治疗后两组患儿数字评分法(NRS)评分、红肿面积有所改善,且试验组改善程度优于常规组,差异有统计学意义(P<0.05);静脉炎患儿血清TLR-4、核因子-κB、TNF-α、IL-11、IL-4、IL-33水平明显高于健康对照组(P<0.05);治疗后,常规组和试验组患儿TLR-4、核因子-κB、TNF-α、IL-11、IL-4、IL-33水平明显下降(P<0.05),且试验组上述指标明显低于常规组(P<0.05)。结论静脉炎患儿存在TLR-4/核因子-κB信号通路表达紊乱,芪柏塌渍可明显调节TLR-4/核因子-κB信号通路上标志性蛋白的表达,该效应可能是芪柏塌渍从机体炎症方面改善静脉炎患儿的作用机制之一。     

The effects of news events on market contagion: Evidence from the 2007–2009 financial crisis

In this paper, we use the quantile regression technique along with coexceedance, a contagion measure, to assess the extent to which news events contribute to contagion in the stock markets during the crisis period between 2007 and 2009. Studies have shown that, not only the subprime crisis leads to a global recession, but the effects on the global stock markets have also been significant. We track the news events, both in the UK and the US, using the global recession timeline. We observe that the news events related to ad hoc bailouts of individual banks from the UK have a contagion effect throughout the period for most of the countries under investigation. This, however, is not found to be the case for the news events originating from the US. Our findings regarding the evidence of contagion effects in the UK reinforce the argument that spreads and contagion—an outcome of the risk perception of financial markets—are solely a result of the behaviour of investors or other financial market participants.