人民币升值预期与我国的贸易顺差

本文对人民币升值预期与贸易差额之间的关系进行了探讨,分析结果认为,本币升值预期会对实际汇率(对贸易差额)的影响产生抑制作用,并刺激出口扩大和进口延迟。这表明消除贸易顺差也需要降低人们对人民币进一步升值的预期;另一方面也说明:国外要求人民币升值的舆论压力可能在实际中会产生逆反的效果,即靠人民币升值不但不能解决中国贸易顺差(其他国家的逆差)的问题,持续施压反而会在短期内扩大顺差。     

基于ARCH类模型的VaR方法在外汇风险计量中的应用

本文将残差项服从t分布的ARCH类模型应用于我国外汇风险的计量。通过美元/人民币汇率日波动率VaR值的实证分析发现:(1)ARCH类模型预测得到的VaR值都能很好地拟合美元/人民币汇率日波动率的实际情况,美元/人民币汇率存在明显的ARCH效应;(2)基于ARCH类模型预测的VaR值其计算精度基本上都超过了J.P.Morgan公司RiskMetrics所采用的EWMA模型,这验证了本文选取ARCH类模型以及考虑残差项服从t分布的合理性;(3)ARCH类模型中以TARCH-M(1,1)模型计算结果最为理想。本研究可为金融机构、监管部门以及外汇投资者规避外汇风险提供决策依据和理论参考。     

我国中央银行对外汇市场干预效力分析

本文主要对中央银行外汇市场干预的有效性进行了分析。中央银行干预外汇市场的基本方式包括冲销式干预和非冲销式干预,前者不会引起国内货币供应量的变动,可以借助利率机制间接强化干预效力。由于我国的利率形成机制尚未市场化,加上对资本项目的严格管制,非冲销式干预难以发挥其应有的作用。因此,增强我国中央银行对外汇市场干预效力的关键是要创造有利于市场干预的制度。     

浅析吉林省边境对朝口岸区域人民币与朝币汇率差异情况及影响

近年来,随着中朝两国贸易关系不断发展,边境贸易中用人民币计价和使用人民币现钞结算已占相当比例,人民币在与我省毗邻的朝鲜边境地区得到了较为广泛的使用,并形成了与当地市场相适应的汇率情况。因吉林省与朝鲜的国境线较长,口岸较多,出现了朝方不同口岸地区的人民币汇率差异巨大的现象,而这种差异是否会对两国边贸的定价及人民币跨境流通结算产生影响。     

Short-term Dynamics in the Cyprus Stock Exchange

Abstract

This paper investigates the short-term dynamics of stock returns in an emerging stock market namely, the Cyprus Stock Exchange (CYSE). Stock returns are modelled as conditionally heteroscedastic processes with time-dependent serial correlation. The conditional variance follows an EGARCH process, while for the conditional mean three nonlinear specifications are tested, namely: (a) the LeBaron exponential autoregressive model; (b) the Sentana and Wadhwani positive feedback trading model; and finally (c) a model that nests both (a) and (b). There is an inverse relationship between volatility and autocorrelation consistent with the findings from several other stock markets, including the US. This pattern could be the manifestation of a certain form of noise trading namely positive feedback trading or, momentum trading strategies. There is little evidence that market declines are followed with higher volatility than market advances, the so-called ‘leverage effect’, that has been observed in almost all developed stock markets. In out of sample forecasts, the nonlinear specifications provide better results in terms of forecasting both first and second moments of the distribution of returns.     

Generic pricing of FX,inflation and stock options under stochastic interest rates and stochastic volatility

We consider the pricing of FX, inflation and stock options under stochastic interest rates and stochastic volatility, for which we use a generic multi-currency framework. We allow for a general correlation structure between the drivers of the volatility, the inflation index, the domestic (nominal) and the foreign (real) rates. Having the flexibility to correlate the underlying FX/inflation/stock index with both stochastic volatility and stochastic interest rates yields a realistic model that is of practical importance for the pricing and hedging of options with a long-term exposure. We derive explicit valuation formulas for various securities, such as vanilla call/put options, forward starting options, inflation-indexed swaps and inflation caps/floors. These vanilla derivatives can be valued in closed form under Schöbel and Zhu [Eur. Finance Rev., 1999, 4, 23–46] stochastic volatility, whereas we devise an (Monte Carlo) approximation in the form of a very effective control variate for the general Heston [Rev. Financial Stud., 1993, 6, 327–343] model. Finally, we investigate the quality of this approximation numerically and consider a calibration example to FX and inflation market data.     

服务贸易外汇管理改革对广西服务贸易跨境收支的影响预测

本文结合服务贸易外汇管理改革内容,运用广西2012年服务贸易跨境收支数据,针对改革对服务贸易跨境收支可能带来的影响进行了预测分析.结果显示,改革既利于疏导服务贸易资金高效顺畅流出,又利于防范异常资金流入,还利于发挥乘数效应,促使逆差进一步扩大.     

Incorporating International Accounting into the MBA Curriculum: Exploring Implications of the Financial Reporting Crisis of 2001–2009

Recent developments in the global business environment have led to important changes in accounting/auditing regulations, and have implications for the business school curriculum. While many of these issues are covered in advanced accounting courses, generally taken only by majors, the issues are sufficiently important that nonaccounting majors, at both the graduate and undergraduate level, should be aware of these issues as well. Recent developments favoring the adoption of International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) in the United States provide an overall compelling context for incorporating these standards into the business curriculum. The purpose of this article is to provide a road map for such incorporation.     

Choice of Exchange Rate Regime in a Selection of African Countries

Abstract

An exchange rate regime has an important impact on macroeconomic policies within developing countries and therefore essential in macroeconomic policy formation. The main research question is to determine how the variety of determinants would influence the exchange rate regime choice for a selection of 19 African developing countries. A distinction is made between three groups of variables, namely economic fundamentals, economic stabilization aspects and currency crises factors, all affecting a country’s exchange regime choice. The probability of these determinants is then estimated to establish whether the selected countries would choose a fixed, an intermediate or a flexible exchange regime.     

Currency Regime and Monetary Autonomy. Empirical Evidence Using Recent and Global Data from 1990 to 2007

This paper analyzes the exchange rate regimes from the perspective of monetary independence. To be specific, using recent and global data, we examine the sensitivity of domestic interest rates to the international interest rate, by conducting co-integration tests and by estimating the adjustment speeds through error-correction model, for different de facto currency regimes and for different types of capital markets. Our estimation results basically support the traditional views of ‘impossible trinity’, as far as the cases with open capital markets are concerned. The floating regime shows the less sensitivity of domestic interest rates to the international interest rate than the fixed regime does, which implies some capacity for domestic monetary autonomy under the floating regime. The cases with closed capital markets, on the other hand, include the cases showing high sensitivity of interest rates in some emerging market economies, which might imply the ‘fear of floating’ hypothesis.