Factors Determining the Exchange Rate Movement under a Partial Capital Mobility Regime

The study examines the rupee–US dollar exchange rate (Rs/$) behaviour in the presence of increasing and ample capital inflows in the post-reform period in India. Using monthly data (1994:4 to 2007:8) the study estimates a basic exchange rate model in a time series framework in order to assess the relative significance of capital inflows in the presence of interest rate, inflation rate and growth rate differentials and other factors (forward exchange rate/expected exchange rate) in influencing the rupee–dollar exchange rate behaviour. It finds the dominance of foreign institutional investments affecting the rupee–dollar exchange rate and, to a certain extent, it is seen that the influence of the growth rate differential affects the exchange rate behaviour in India.     

The Threshold Effect of Exchange Rate Volatility on Trade Volume: Evidence from G-7 Countries

Abstract

This paper uses a threshold model to examine a possible threshold effect in the impact of exchange rate volatility on trade volume for the bilateral trade volumes between the US and other G-7 countries. A grid-searching method is used to obtain the threshold points, and time-series econometric techniques are applied to estimate the long run stable relationships as well as short-run dynamics. The results support the existence of nonlinearity in the effect of exchange rate volatility, and indicate that trade volume tends to increase when exchange rate volatility surpasses a certain threshold point.     

我国“宅基地换房”利益主体博弈分析

以"宅基地换房"模式中相关利益主体为着眼点,如果运用案例分析、博弈分析等方法对"宅基地换房"过程中政府(包括中央政府和地方政府)、开发企业、村集体、农民个人"权利与利益"的博弈策略和过程、博弈的不对等利益分配结果展开研究即会发现,公平、规范的博弈平台的缺失导致相对弱势的农民群体在博弈中损失部分利益。应该重视农民享有经济发展带来的利益分配的权利,构建一整套公平、透明的博弈规则,更多地考虑农民个人利益,实现各方利益均衡,以利于我国社会经济的稳定与和谐发展。     

The Fear Premium and Daily Comovements of the S&P 500 E/P ratio and Treasury Yields before and during the 2008 Financial Crisis

I develop a new risk measure called the Total Fear Premium that generalizes Faugere‐Van Erlach (2009) and accounts for both flight‐to‐safety and flight‐to‐liquidity behavior. This new measure helps to explain why the daily S&P 500 forward earnings yield (E/P ratio) is strongly negatively correlated with daily Treasury yields of all maturities during the 2008 financial crisis, which is a reversal from the relation that prevailed before the crisis. The Total Fear Premium “mimics” the VIX during the financial crisis. Once the basic GARCH formulation modeling the interaction between the earnings yield and Treasury yields is augmented with the Total Fear Premium, the relation between the earnings yield and short‐term Treasury yields becomes significantly positive, in line with Fama's (1975) view that short‐term yields are good proxies for expected inflation. Two by‐products of this analysis are: 1) a new risk premium measure associated with flight‐to‐liquidity and 2) a new way to measure the inflation risk premium on a daily basis.     

Factores que explican la extensión de revelación de activos intangibles de los bancos que cotizan en la Bolsa de Valores de Panamá

This paper analyzes the level of voluntary disclosure of intangible assets, and identifies the factors that explain the disclosure of such information by the banks listed on the Panama Stock Exchange during the period 2005-2009. The information is recorded on an index that contains 158 indicators divided into five categories: human capital, technological structural, organizational structure, relational business and social relational. Three hypotheses are posed: H₁ there is a positive relationship between the size and extent of disclosure of intangible assets; H₂ a positive relationship between the extent of incorporation and disclosure of intangible assets; H₃ there is a positive relationship between leverage and the extent of disclosure of intangible assets. The results indicate that for Panama banks it is more important to disclose information on intangibles in the following order: business relational capital, social relational, organizational structure, human and technological structural. H₁ was accepted as a size category except for the structural capital; H₂ was accepted for the years in all categories, while H₃ was rejected.     

中央银行利率调整对商业银行盈利能力影响的实证分析

本文运用统计分析中的方差分析方法,以上市商业银行为样本,对不同类型商业银行的盈利能力如何受中央银行存贷款利率变动的影响进行了定量分析,发现中央银行利率政策的调整对不同类型商业银行的盈利能力具有不同程度的影响,并对商业银行提高盈利能力提出了对策建议。     

人民币汇率与我国通货膨胀的传递效应研究*--基于结构突变的阈值协整理论分析

本文基于不完全汇率传递理论,结合当前我国宏观经济运行特点,运用结构突变的协整方法,对人民币汇率与我国通货膨胀水平之间的价格传递效应进行研究。长期来看,人民币汇率变动对物价水平的传递效应在2008年10月和2010年5月出现了两次结构性变化;汇率传递系数的符号也在2008年10月份出现变化,由此前的负向传递突变为正向传递。短期来看,人民币汇率变动对物价水平的传递存在着非对称性的短期动态调整过程,并且表现出典型的“缓升陡降”型周期波动。     

非正规金融低违约率的动因:基于契约治理的解释

本文基于契约治理视角,阐释了非正规金融保持低违约率的动因,并结合茅于轼在山西省龙头村的信贷扶贫案例,对非正规金融保持低违约率进行经验验证。研究表明,非正规金融内生于特定的社会网络,社会资本机制、信誉机制、群体贷款或连带责任以及灵活担保机制,有助于克服信贷过程中的道德风险与机会主义行为,降低借款人的违约率。     

所有权、产业政策指导与银行贷款利率

以上市公司披露的银行信贷数据为样本,实证分析产业政策指导对企业贷款利率的影响。结果表明:产业政策指导中的重点支持类企业和一般支持类企业往往获得了银行贷款的利率优惠,商业银行较好地落实了国家的产业政策;相比于民营企业,与政府有密切关系的国有企业获得了较低的贷款利率,商业银行的信贷决策表现出一定程度的所有权金融歧视。     

中国互联网金融的地域歧视研究

本文借助一家P2P网络借贷平台的交易数据,实证考察了互联网金融借贷中是否存在地域歧视。描述性统计表明各省之间的订单成功率存在巨大差异,在控制了订单信息和借款人信息之后,该差异有所降低,但仍在统计上显著,这说明我国的P2P网络借贷的交易中存在地域歧视问题。进一步的研究表明：被歧视的省份其订单违约率并没有显著的高于其它省份,这说明本文发现的地域歧视与属于偏好性歧视——这是一种非理性行为。