新疆吐鲁番地区农村国债发行情况调查分析

多年来，国债一直是城镇居民投资的热点，农村居民购买国债难的问题日趋突出。一方面，城市内的银行机构承担着国债承购包销任务却完不成承销计划；而另一方面却是农村居民想买而买不到国债。本文对这一问题的深层次原因及农村居民购买国债的可能性进行了分析，在此基础上，提出了拓宽农村居民购买国债渠道的几点建议。     

Theorizing the organization and management of non-governmental development organizations

This article uses a case study of public recruitment in Nepal as the vehicle for a discussion of the value of three current public management models: an anticorruption model, a psychometric selection model and the new public management (NPM) model. The political context of Nepal and the role and functions of the Public Service Commission (PSC) are described. The article argues that, in contrast to current NPM doctrine, preserving the current remit of the PSC as a central agency responsible for recruitment is necessary to preserve the integrity of recruitment, which is an important element in an anticorruption strategy. The article also reviews the case for selective introduction of psychometric methods of selection. The article implies an increased importance for public recruitment in development thinking, and argues for the vital role of Service Commissions in limiting corruption. While recognizing the reality of the problems which the NPM model was developed to tackle, the article provides evidence for rejecting its claim to universality.     

A round trip on decentralization in the tourism sector

Although the performance of the tourism sector has been investigated extensively, the effects of institutional governance have largely been unexplored. This study uses a quasi-natural experiment setting owing to differences in tourism policy devolution between special and ordinary statute Italian regions. Using panel data for the period 1995–2010, we first assess the efficiency of each region by a smoothed bootstrapped Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) and an order-m frontier estimator. Next, we adopt a difference-in-difference strategy and a fully non-parametric approach to assess whether decentralization affects the performance of regions as tourism destinations. We find that regions affected by decentralization worsened their performance, compared to unaffected regions. The results are robust to different estimators and empirical specifications.     

Optimal foreign debt for Egypt: A stochastic control approach

This study assesses the foreign debt policy in Egypt and contrasts it versus the optimal policy during the period 1985–2008. It also presents a forecast of the optimal debt during the period 2009–2014. The optimal debt policy was derived using an open economy model for Egypt. The uncertainties in the model stem from the uncertainties in the interest or debt service payments and the uncertainties in the rate of return on investments. The stochastic control approach was used to find the optimal debt policy. It was found that Egypt could borrow externally as long as the trend in the rate of return on investments exceeds the trend in the real interest rate or the trend in the rate of the debt service payments. The analysis finds that Egypt's foreign debt was higher than the optimal level before 1997. After 1997, foreign debt seems to converge to the optimal level. However, Egypt's foreign debt is still below its optimal level which results in an opportunity cost for the economy to grow, otherwise, GDP could have recorded a favorable increase.     

Growth,deficits and uncertainty: Theoretical aspects and empirical evidence from a panel of 27 countries

We examine the relationship between fiscal deficits and per-capita income growth in a panel of 27 European countries, allowing for perceived risks, in terms of fiscal sustainability, associated with additional government spending. Such risks are proxied by the conditional variability of manufacturing production and stock market returns and by the unconditional variability of two survey-based economic-sentiment indicators. To help clarifying how fiscal variables impact on growth and to provide a point of reference for the interpretation of the empirical results a structural growth model is first identified. We find evidence of an asymmetric relationship, in that fiscal deficits give rise to adverse growth effects if they coincide with high uncertainty regarding the prospects of the economy and no significant negative growth effects in the low-uncertainty case.     

深化财政改革应保持收支同步推进

财政的分配职能主要是通过财政的收入与支出来实现的。对任何国家的政府而言，财政收支平衡应该是其财政的最高目标。尽管凯恩斯以后，有些国家政府实行以赤字财政政策来刺激经济增长、扩大需求、实现就业。但是，如果一国政府的财政赤字过大、收支难以平衡的话，那么国民对政府调控经济，发挥其职能作用的信任程度就将大打折扣。在我国，财政收支管理的“越位”与“缺位”问题已经是不争的事实，收入地出两条线的管理也显得极不协调，需要及时地进行改革。     

财政支出拉动经济增长的惯性分析

经济量通常存在着一定的惯性，与物体的惯性不同，这是由外部变量的累计影响作用产生的由于财政支出对国民经济的增长有着积极的作用，而财政支出又有着比较强的滞后性，本文在财政支出拉动GDP增长的理论下针对财政支出的扩张拉动GDP增长的惯性进行分析。     

On predictive distributions of public net liabilities

The analysis of the sustainability of public sector finances requires an accounting of all future revenues and all future spending that we would expect, under current tax laws and current entitlements. The classical calculation does not acknowledge the inherent uncertainty of the future economic and demographic developments, so the results can be misleading. Our aim is to produce a more robust summary of the sustainability of the public sector than the one currently available. By taking a forecasting point of view, our formulation takes into account the uncertainty of future productivity, stock and bond markets, and demography. Methodological complications that arise in the stochastic setting are discussed. Estimates of the relative roles of economics and demographics in the uncertainty of public net liabilities are presented.     

财政分权与经济增长

理解财政分权在经济增长过程中所起的作用颇为重要。本文采用1953～2003年的时间序列数据,以地方政府财政支出占全部财政支出的比重作为度量财政分权的指标,用实证研究的办法考察财政分权对于中国经济增长的影响。与已有的一些研究结果不同的是,本文的回归结果显示,对经济增长具有显著影响的并不是财政分权的绝对水平,而是财政分权程度的变动。本文依据这一结果分析了财政分权与经济增长的关系。     

财政信息透明度的理论分析

提高财政信息透明度对一国的财政管理活动至关重要,国际货币基金组织编写的《财政透明度手册》对此作了很好的诠释。理解财政信息透明度,应当抓住财政信息是一种特殊的公共品这一本质,供给者是政府,需求者是公众。由于不对称信息的存在,使得政府与公众的财政信息供求背离均衡点。提高财政信息透明度,就是通过一系列制度安排,去努力接近财政信息供求均衡的理想状态。