Do subjective expectations explain asset pricing puzzles?

The structural uncertainty model with Bayesian learning, advanced by Weitzman (AER 2007), provides a framework for gauging the effect of structural uncertainty on asset prices and risk premiums. This paper provides an operational version of this approach that incorporates realistic priors about consumption growth volatility, while guaranteeing finite asset pricing quantities. In contrast to the extant literature, the resulting asset pricing model with subjective expectations yields well-defined expected utility, finite moment generating function of the predictive distribution of consumption growth, and tractable expressions for equity premium and risk-free return. Our quantitative analysis reveals that explaining the historical equity premium and risk-free return, in the context of subjective expectations, requires implausible levels of structural uncertainty. Furthermore, these implausible prior beliefs result in consumption disaster probabilities that virtually coincide with those implied by more realistic priors. At the same time, the two sets of prior beliefs have diametrically opposite asset pricing implications.     

浅论云南机床工具行业竞争力

从云南机床工具行业发展的历史沿革出发,着重从宏观层面探讨了云南机床工具行业的竞争优势;同时,对云南机床工具行业发展中存在的主要问题进行了讨论,并提出相应解决问题的思路和对策。     

The learning economy and embodied knowledge flows in Great Britain

This paper examines the `learning economy' from the perspective of occupational characteristics and changes in the British labour market between 1980 and 1992. Following a discussion of the learning and knowledge economy, cross-sectional employment data are analysed to ascertain which occupations can be classified as knowledge-based. Longitudinal career history data are then used to trace the flows of these `knowledge workers' over time. Sectoral shifts are examined, with a particular focus on the knowledge-intensive service sectors. The data come from the Employment in Britain survey: a large-scale employee survey from 1992. The approach used allows us to measure somewhat intangible aspects of economic behaviour such as learning and tacit knowledge and attempt to trace their flows. Shifts in knowledge from the manufacturing to the service sector are shown to be important and related to previous work which demonstrated the importance of knowledge intensive business services for both output and productivity in manufacturing.     

中国风电产业技术创新对风电投资成本的影响

本文通过对学习曲线模型进行拓展,将规模效应对成本下降的影响从技术创新的影响中分离出来,解决了变量遗漏偏差的问题。并采用过程仿真方法,解决了中国风电时间序列数据样本过小的难题,提高了测算风电产业对新技术学习率的准确度。研究发现,中国风电产业的学习率仅为12.7%左右,即当风电累计装机容量增加2倍时,风电的单位投资成本因技术创新的下降率只有12.7%左右。由技术创新带来中国的成本下降不仅远远低于发达国家的,而且低于中国的太阳能等其他的新型可再生能源。因此政府在加大对风电基础科研投入的同时,应将政策的重点放在新技术的转化上。     

公务员学习能力培养

学习是一个社会进步的标志,公务员作为国家社会的管理者,其学习能力的高低直接影响着这个国家的发展速度。本文论述了公务员学习的重要性,并希望能够全民学习,共同发展社会。     

An Exploratory Framework for Analysing International Retail Learning

It is argued that international retail research has overlooked an essential component of the retail internationalization process, notably learning. This paper proposes an exploratory framework that enables the application of learning theory to the study of international retailing. The paper provides a meaningful starting point for developing an overarching framework which would represent one sort of re-conceptualization of the retail internationalization process, and arguably a new perspective for reinterpreting, re-evaluating and refining the existing literature on international retailing. Alongside this exploratory framework, we present a series of research propositions that might serve as an agenda for research into international retail learning. The paper concludes with a summary of the key themes and ways in which the area of international retail learning may be investigated.     

EAP理念下大学英语“合作学习”教学模式探究

从上世纪七十年代起，“合作学习”作为学术英语（EAP）能力培养的主要途径引来不少教师的关注，但将其科学合理地运用于教学课堂，并研究其实际开展的例子不多。文章以“行动研究”为框架，对实际教学实践中“合作学习”教学模式进行系统探究，通过文献查找、课堂观摩和教师访谈等研究方法搜集数据。研究表明，“异质组”是“合作学习”前最佳分组方式；“合作学习”任务应将趣味性、真实性、目标性合为一体；而教师不应过度介入学生“合作学习”中。     

A CGE model of 'Dutch disease' economics in Taiwan

A computable general equilibrium (CGE) model of Dutch disease economics in Taiwan's economy is established in order to examine the impacts of the imbalanced growth in output, endogenous learning effects from imports and exports and the import tariff reduction. Twenty-nine industry sectors and five quintiles of households are taken to measure the changes in industry structure and functional distribution of income. An imbalanced growth, either from output or exports, contributes to the reduction in the share of manufacturing industry, but the deterioration in the functional distribution of income only happens to an imbalanced growth in intersectoral output. A widespread trade liberalization policy helps to mitigate the Dutch disease phenomenon in the sense that de-industrialization and deterioration of the distribution of income by an imbalanced growth in manufacturing industry are not so severe.     

企业生产线设备的维护保养

固定资产投资在企业的战略规划中占有极其重要的地位，而生产线设备作为固定资产中的一个主要部分，是为企业创造财富的一个最直接的生产要素。所以生产线设备的雏护保养就成为企业日常生产活动中最值得关注的一个组成部分。关于设备维护保养的著作和书籍有很多，而本文主要结合ISO9000相关要求，偏重于论述设备维护保养的流程问题。