Determinants of Current Account Imbalances in 16 OECD Countries: An Out-Of-Sample Perspective

We employ panel data as well as country-specific models to uncover empirically the determinants of current account imbalances. We find evidence of slope heterogeneity likely rendering the fixed-effect estimator inconsistent. Mean group estimation is followed to overcome the latter difficulty. Both estimation techniques are evaluated by means of in- and out-of-sample criteria. The mean group estimator outperforms the fixed-effect approach and, moreover, only three economic variables are found to impact on the current account balance significantly. These are the government budget balance, the domestic output gap and the changes of the terms of trade. We finally propose a parsimonious dynamic model of the current account, including only these variables and illustrate that it has similar predictive accuracy as country-specific benchmark models. JEL no. F32, C23, C53     

江苏省高级技能人才供需缺口原因与解决对策研究

随着江苏省经济的快速发展,高级技能人才供不应求的矛盾日益凸现.文章通过实地调研的方法,深入分析了其内在原因,在此基础上,有的放矢地提出企业、政府乃至全社会需要努力的方向,以期从根本上解决江苏省目前的高级技能人才供需缺口问题.     

基于粗糙集理论的决策树方法在贷款客户信用评估中的应用

决策树是数据挖掘中常用的分类技术，其生成的规则便于决策者理解和应用。然而面对较多的属性且含有冗余和噪声属性的记录集生成的决策树时，无法删除冗余属性，造成运算过程复杂。本文旨在通过应用粗糙集理论，将其与决策树方法进行结合，对属性进行约简，降低运算复杂度，并生成相对简化的规则形式，并将其应用到银行个人贷款客户信用评估之中。     

Tourism as an alternative source of regional growth in Portugal: a panel data analysis at NUTS II and III levels

The role of tourism is of vital economic importance, particularly for small countries with a privileged geographical location and favourable weather conditions. This paper examines the importance of tourism as a conditioning factor for higher regional growth in Portugal by employing the conditional convergence hypothesis of Barro and Sala-i-Martin, associated with the endogenous growth theory. The panel data estimation approach provides evidence of the positive impact of tourism (through the accommodation capacity) on the growth in per-capita income among the Portuguese regions, increasing the rate of convergence. Therefore, tourism can be considered as an alternative source for stimulating higher regional growth in Portugal, if the supply characteristics of this sector are improved.     

Political Measures for Strategic Environmental Policy with External Effects

This paper investigates an environmental policy designed to reduce the emission of pollutants under uncertainty, with the agent problem as an optimal stopping problem. We first analyze the two cases in which there are one agent and two competing agents by following Ohyama and Tsujimura (2005). When we consider a model of strategic agents, we need to analyze the external economic effect that is peculiar to an agent’s environmental policy implementation. Then, to improve and resolve these external effects, we examine three alternative political measures, comprising an environmental subsidy, an environmental tax and an emission trading system. The results of the analysis indicate that the environmental subsidy and environmental tax promote environmental policy. However, they do not create an incentive to be the leader. On the other hand, an emissions trading system not only promotes environmental policy but also creates an incentive for leadership.This paper was previously circulated under the title “Political Measures for Strategic Environmental Policy with Induced Effects”. The authors would like to thank Masaaki Kijima for helpful comments. The authors would also like to thank Alistair Munro and two anonymous referees providing detailed comments and suggestions. This research was partially supported by Daiwa Securities Group Inc. The second-named author was partially supported by the Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology, Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (B) (2), 16310118.     

How Has Rural Tax Reform Affected Farmers and Local Governance in China？

Using nationally representative data, the present paper examines the impact of China's ongoing rural tax reform on farmers. The difficulties in further local governance restructuring are also discussed. It is argued that the issues associated with rural taxation and local governance in China result from inherent tension between an increasingly liberalized economic system and a still centralized political system. Although rural tax reform has helped to reduce farmers' tax burdens in the short term, the establishment of an effective local governance regime requires coordinated reforms to downsize local bureaucracy by providing social security for laid-off cadres, to strengthen local accountability by granting higher local formal tax autonomy, and to promote meaningful participation by expanding local democracy.     

制约东北振兴的金融因素分析与建议

区域经济增长离不开区域金融发展的必要支持。东北地区金融发展水平的相对落后，不仅制约了金融推动经济发展功能的发挥，而且在一定程度上也阻碍经济的进一步发展。本文主要探讨了制约东北地区经济发展的金融支持因素，在此基础上有针对性地提出一些对策建议。论文指出，要促进东北地区的经济发展，就必须加强区域金融合作，要形成金融产业群，协调发展各类金融机构，合理配置区域金融资源，加强金融创新等。     

Software for Learning and for Doing Statistics

The community of statisticians and statistics educators should take responsibility for the evaluation and improvement of software quality from the perspective of education. The paper will develop a perspective, an ideal system of requirements to critically evaluate existing software and to produce future software more adequate both for learning and doing statistics in introductory courses. Different kinds of tools and microworlds are needed. After discussing general requirements for such programs, a prototypical ideal software system will be presented in detail. It will be illustrated how such a system could be used to construct learning environments and to support elementary data analysis with exploratory working style.     

基于引制一体化的定向战斗部起爆控制研究

采用定向战斗部已成为防空导弹增强战斗部杀伤威力的重要发展方向，但是定向战斗部的应用对起爆控制系统提出了新的要求。本文提出一种利用防空导弹无线电引信与导引头一体化设计（简称引制一体化设计），并应用数据融合实现定向战斗部起爆控制的技术途径。     

会计数据信度与效度的特征性描述——基于会计变量及变量间关系的认识

无形会计数据信度即度量结果的重复性程度,是反映会计数据的客观性指标。效度是判断度量结果即研究对象结果的有效性程度。会计数据的信度与效度的探讨有助于会计信息质量的改善与质量标准的制定,对于进一步展开会计科学的研究也具有一定的意义。本文通过分析会计数据信度与效度的特征性,探讨与验证会计数据信度与效度路径研究方法。