浅析电子货币对货币政策效应的冲击

货币政策是一个国家调控经济的重要工具，但电子货币在实体经济中的运行使传统的货币政策传导机制受到梗阻，从而使货币政策效应变得难以预测，如挑战传统的货币层次；缩减央行资产负债表的规模，并使利率、货币供应量、超额准备金和基础货币等货币政策中介指标变得难以测度，从而影响货币政策的抉择和实施。故中央银行应研讨新形势下的对策。BIS提供的建议也可咨借鉴。     

我国证券投资基金投资管理行为成熟性研究

本文首先从理论上论证了衡量证券投资基金投资管理行为是否成熟的标准之一，是考察其实际投资组合所承担的风险与所获得的收益是否匹配；在此基础上，以54家封闭式基金为例，对其投资管理行为是否成熟进行了实证检验。研究发现，一部分基金（占样本的46．3％）的行为是成熟的，同时大部分基金（其余53．7％）的行为具有适应性。换言之，本研究从风险与收益的匹配性视角并没有支持目前大多数研究认为的我国基金行为不成熟这一定性判断。     

资产替代、金融市场交易和货币流通速度的稳定性

文章以2001至2005年为样本区间，考察了我国公众的资产替代行为是否构成了股票市场交易影响货币流通速度稳定性的内在机制。研究表明，当股票市场交易规模扩大时。公众出于交易的需要，会将企业存款、储蓄存款和现金替代为股票交易客户保证金，并导致M1流通速度增加，这就说明公众的资产替代行为确实影响到货币流通速度的稳定性。这就意味着，人民银行在考察股票市场交易对货币流通速度稳定性的影响效应时，其切入点应集中于对资产替代行为的分析。     

Valuation of Residential Mortgage-Backed Securities with Default Risk Using an Intensity-Based Approach

This paper develops a valuation model for fixed-rate mortgages, mortgage pools, and residential mortgage-backed securities (RMBS's) using an intensity-based approach. This model incorporates full prepayment, partial prepayment, and default in valuing a mortgage. Full prepayment is further classified into “refinancing” and “sale of a house” depending on the reason. The time of occurrence of each of these three types of prepayment and default is modeled as the first jump time of a Cox process. Under these conditions, the valuation formula for a mortgage as well as a partial differential equation (PDE) that the mortgage value satisfies is provided. As for implementation of the model, the short-term riskless interest rate and the house price are adopted as state variables. Each intensity process is specified in a manner that allows a jump in intensity depending on the state variables and the borrower's incentive for prepayment or default. Through such specifications, it is shown that our model has characteristics similar to some structural models in previous literature. As for the numerical method for valuation, we propose a simple backward induction technique on a tree instead of the commonly used Monte Carlo method. Additionally, the method for estimating the model is discussed, and the results of numerical simulations are reported.This paper represents the view of the author and does note necessarily the views of the Mitsubishi UFJ Securities Co., Ltd. or members of its staff.     

金融机构履行反洗钱法律义多中的问题及建议

本文从基层金融机构在履行反洗钱法律义务方面存在的主要问题出发,分析了产生问题的原因,提出了完善金融机构履行《反洗钱法》规定义务的对策建议.主要是:正确认识反洗钱工作的意义,解开"开展反洗钱影响业务工作"的思想包袱;进一步健全和完善反洗钱制度;增强工作主动性;严格履行"了解你的客户"义务;细分大额交易和可疑交易行为,落实大额交易和可疑交易报告制度.     

析反洗钱行政处罚的法律矛盾冲突与适用

《反洗钱法》的颁布实施对于预防洗钱活动，维护金融秩序，遏制洗钱犯罪及其相关犯罪，发挥了非常重要的作用。但是，《反洗钱法》与中国人民银行颁布的《金融机构反洗钱规定》、《金融机构大额交易和可疑交易报告管理办法》等规章关于法律责任的规定，实行双重行政处罚标准；反洗钱违法行为的范围、行政处罚规定的效力、处罚建议权、拒绝权等规定有矛盾的地方；违反规定、情节严重、特别严重、身份不明等情形定义不明确，概念模糊不清。这些矛盾冲突及问题，必然导致法律及规章的适用困难，应及时予以修改补充完善，以保证社会主义法制的统一、和谐与尊严。     

商业银行股改转型期声誉风险管理分析

对于商业银行尤其是处于股改转型期的商业银行，应当深刻理解有效规避声誉风险是商业银行健康、有序、可持续发展的重要保障，因而要有意识地建立和强化声誉管理意识，采取切实可行的措施防控声誉风险。本文着重分析了商业银行声誉风险管理的内涵及商业银行声誉风险的形成，针对商业银行声誉风险管理中存在的问题及商业银行股改转型期声誉风险管理的特点，提出了商业银行股改转型期加强声誉风险管理的措施与建议，     

The tail risks of FX return distributions: A comparison of the returns associated with limit orders and market orders

This paper measures and compares the tail risks of limit and market orders using Extreme Value Theory. The analysis examines realised tail outcomes using the Dealing 2000-2 electronic broking system based on completed transactions rather than the more common analysis of indicative quotes. In general, limit and market orders exhibit broadly similar tail behaviour, but limit orders have significantly heavier tails and larger tail quantiles than market orders.     

Profiling under conditions of ambiguity—An application in the financial services industry

Profiles inform decision making and impact both on the individual being profiled and the organisation acting on the information. When there is no universal empirical support for the profile, decisions are made under conditions of ambiguity. This paper analyses the decision-making process for reporting money laundering suspicions using a framework that highlights the role of technical, formal and informal sub-system elements. We conclude that, in the absence of certainty regarding technical, economic and legal parameters, informal factors play a key role in determining whether systems are adopted and how much is spent.     

我国目前的外债风险分析与防范

外债在弥补国家建设资金不足,促进国民经济快速发展方面起着重要作用。但近年我国外债规模增长速度惊人,成为世界债务大国。从各项外债指标来看,它们低于国际警戒线,但外债存在着许多潜在风险,如债务人的多头对外,国际商业贷款比重偏大,外债使用效率欠佳等。因此针对这些风险,我国应从外债借入、使用、偿还三方面来防范风险。