金融离岸服务外包的市场潜力与提升策略研究——以北京市为例

目前在世界经济全球化、国际金融自由化的总体发展态势情况之下,国际金融服务外包产业呈现出产业链分工连续细化,发包规模、地域持续拓展,承包市场重心向亚太地区转移等发展趋势。在此国际大背景下,北京金融服务外包发展潜力巨大,具体表现在市场需求主体持续增长、产业集群效应显著、业务范围不断拓展等方面。北京应通过制定鼓励性的财税和金融政策积极支持金融服务外包的发展,组建大型金融服务外包企业提升国际竞争力,推行行业标准化、加强风险控制与监管,进行多层次人才培养等措施,充分发挥北京金融服务外包潜力,促进其快速发展。     

集群网络结构与技术创新绩效关系研究：吸收能力是中介变量吗？

基于209份地方产业集群企业问卷数据,实证分析了集群网络结构、吸收能力以及技术创新绩效三者间的关系和相互作用机制。结果表明：①集群网络结构对吸收能力具有正向影响。网络规模、中心度和强度正向影响企业潜在吸收能力和现实吸收能力;②潜在吸收能力和现实吸收能力显著促进技术创新绩效;③集群网络结构显著促进技术创新绩效。但在集群网络结构的各项指标中,除网络规模外,网络中心度和网络强度并不直接影响创新,而是以吸收能力为中介变量间接影响创新绩效;④在集群网络结构、吸收能力、技术创新绩效三者关系中,潜在和现实吸收能力是发挥网络结构优势、提升创新绩效的关键因素。     

山东省17地市利用FDI的业绩与潜力比较研究

本文采用联合国贸发会议(UNCTAD)提出的“业绩指数”和“潜力指数”评估方法,对山东省17个地市利用外商直接投资(FDI)的业绩与潜力进行了定量比较分析,通过指数大小的排序来反映各地市利用外资业绩与潜力的相对地位,以期对各地市利用FDI状况有一个客观的评价和把握,为各地市制定更有效地吸引及利用FDI的政策措施提供决策依据。     

中国双边金融服务贸易出口潜力及贸易壁垒研究

本文利用OECD数据,基于扩展的引力模型拟合了一个"典型"经济体(包括中国)双边金融服务的出口流量方程,并在此基础上对中国双边金融服务贸易的出口潜力及贸易壁垒等问题进行了研究。结果发现:进出口双方的GDP、双边距离、进出口双方的经济自由度及是否使用共同语言会对中国双边金融服务出口产生显著的影响;中国对主要的金融服务出口市场(包括中国香港、美国、卢森堡等)普遍贸易过度,而对小型的出口市场则普遍贸易不足;中国双边金融服务出口贸易过度的经济体,贸易壁垒水平较低,而贸易不足的经济体,贸易壁垒水平则相对较高。     

Network potentials

A network payoff function assigns a utility to all participants within a social network. In this paper we investigate network payoff functions that admit an exact network potential or an ordinal network potential. We also investigate exact and ordinal potentials of Myerson’s non-cooperative network formation game based on consent in link formation. We show that the admittance of certain of these network and game-theoretic potentials implies the existence of pairwise stable networks and the convergence of network formation processes. Our main results extend and strengthen the current insights in the literature on game theoretic approaches to social network formation. We thank Matt Jackson and Sudipta Sarangi for extensive discussions on the subject of this paper. Part of this research was done while S. Chakrabarti was at Bonn on a post-doctoral research fellowship. We thank the Department of Economics at the University of Bonn for their hospitality and financial support. Part of this research was done at the Center for Economic Research at Tilburg University, Tilburg, the Netherlands. R. P. Gilles financially supported from the Netherlands Organization for Scientific Research (NWO), grant # 46-550, is gratefully acknowledged.     

Modeling and calculating the effect of treatment at baseline from panel outcomes

We propose and examine a panel data model for isolating the effect of a treatment, taken once at baseline, from outcomes observed over subsequent time periods. In the model, the treatment intake and outcomes are assumed to be correlated, due to unobserved or unmeasured confounders. Intake is partly determined by a set of instrumental variables and the confounding on unobservables is modeled in a flexible way, varying both by time and treatment state. Covariate effects are assumed to be subject-specific and potentially correlated with other covariates. Estimation and inference is by Bayesian methods that are implemented by tuned Markov chain Monte Carlo methods. Because our analysis is based on the framework developed by Chib [2004. Analysis of treatment response data without the joint distribution of counterfactuals. Journal of Econometrics, in press], the modeling and estimation does not involve either the unknowable joint distribution of the potential outcomes or the missing counterfactuals. The problem of model choice through marginal likelihoods and Bayes factors is also considered. The methods are illustrated in simulation experiments and in an application dealing with the effect of participation in high school athletics on future labor market earnings.     

对我国潜在产出、结构预算与财政态势的关联性研究

本文基于新凯恩斯型动态模型的状态空间模型对潜在产出进行估计，并利用估计结果计算出政府财政预算中的结构性成分和周期性成分。通过对周期性预算余额和结构性预算余额的分析发现，我国财政自动稳定器功能较弱，财政收入和支出的周期性波动相对较小；周期性预算余额的变化与经济周期波动相吻合；我国1998年以来的财政态势具有明显的反周期特点，其对于拉动经济增长、减少经济波动起到了重要作用。     

实现经济周期波动在适度高位的平滑化

本文主要探讨未来5—8年的中期内,中国经济周期波动有可能出现的两个新特点:一是在波动的位势上,有可能实现持续多年的适度高位运行,潜在经济增长率将在9%左右;二是在波动的幅度上,有可能实现进一步的平滑化,使经济波动保持在8%—10%的适度增长区间内。这两个特点之所以说是“有可能”,一方面因为其中包含着一定的客观因素,另一方面因为未来还面临着许多新挑战。本文从中国国情出发,根据马克思的有关论述,并综合借鉴熊彼特周期理论和现代经济周期理论的有关分析思路,着重阐明中国本轮经济周期冲击因素的特点(类型特点、形成特点和作用特点),将经济的长期增长趋势与短期周期波动统一起来进行分析。这一分析的政策含义是,需要不断加强和改善宏观调控,努力实现经济周期波动在适度高位的平滑化。     

Potential measures and expected present value of operating costs until ruin in renewal risk models with general interclaim times

In this paper, a Sparre Andersen risk process with arbitrary interclaim time distribution is considered. We analyze various ruin-related quantities in relation to the expected present value of total operating costs until ruin, which was first proposed by Cai et al. [(2009a). On the expectation of total discounted operating costs up to default and its applications. Advances in Applied Probability 41(2), 495–522] in the piecewise-deterministic compound Poisson risk model. The analysis in this paper is applicable to a wide range of quantities including (i) the insurer's expected total discounted utility until ruin; and (ii) the expected discounted aggregate claim amounts until ruin. On one hand, when claims belong to the class of combinations of exponentials, explicit results are obtained using the ruin theoretic approach of conditioning on the first drop via discounted densities (e.g. Willmot [(2007). On the discounted penalty function in the renewal risk model with general interclaim times. Insurance: Mathematics and Economics 41(1), 17–31]). On the other hand, without any distributional assumption on the claims, we also show that the expected present value of total operating costs until ruin can be expressed in terms of some potential measures, which are common tools in the literature of Lévy processes (e.g. Kyprianou [(2014). Fluctuations of L'evy processes with applications: introductory lectures, 2nd ed. Berlin Heidelberg: Springer-Verlag]). These potential measures are identified in terms of the discounted distributions of ascending and descending ladder heights. We shall demonstrate how the formulas resulting from the two seemingly different methods can be reconciled. The cases of (i) stationary renewal risk model and (ii) surplus-dependent premium are briefly discussed as well. Some interesting invariance properties in the former model are shown to hold true, extending a well-known ruin probability result in the literature. Numerical illustrations concerning the expected total discounted utility until ruin are also provided.     

论合理期待理论在公司司法解散制度中的实践运用

我国新《公司法》第183条对公司司法解散有过明确规定。虽然这一规定对公司法体系的完善起着重要作用,但在实践运用中,在处理诸如预期改变或者因继承、受赠而获得股份的问题上,现有的法律仍将眼光放在投资时间这个相对较狭隘的概念上。对此问题,法律应更多地考虑公司经营管理情形的改变,从而保护小股东的合理期待权。