Agglomeration under forward-looking expectations: Potentials and global stability

This paper considers a class of migration dynamics with forward-looking agents in a multi-country solvable variant of the core–periphery model of Krugman [Krugman, P., 1991. Increasing returns and economic geography. Journal of Political Economy 99, 483–499]. We find that, under a symmetric externality assumption, our static model admits a potential function, which allows us to identify a stationary state that is uniquely absorbing and globally accessible under the perfect foresight dynamics whenever the degree of friction in relocation decisions is sufficiently small. In particular, when trade barriers are low enough, full agglomeration in the country with the highest barrier is the unique stable state for small frictions. New aspects in trade and tax policy that arise due to forward-looking behavior are discussed.     

服务业与中国经济:相关性和加快增长的潜力

服务业比重随着经济发展不断上升是一个普遍认可的规律 ,但是我国在上世纪 90年代初期以来 ,服务业比重在一个低水平上保持稳定 ,有悖规律。这种现象的产生 ,有我国经济增长模式、经济体制、在全球产业分工中的定位、认识和政策、统计口径等多方面的原因。本文详细考察了我国服务业的发展与内部结构的变化 ,并将我国与世界其他国家的数据进行了比较研究 ,从多个角度 ,用不同的数据样本 ,分析了经济增长与服务业发展的关系 ,并建立了一个多元回归模型分析收入水平、消费结构、城市化等因素变化对服务业今后发展的影响。预期随着我国经济的持续快速增长 ,服务业比重会在我国人均GDP上了一个新台阶后明显提高。最后提出了几点政策建议。     

Brand equity of defectors and never boughts in a business financial market

Buyer acquisition is important for any supplier looking to maintain or expand its customer base. This study uses a brand equity perspective to compare the future customer potential of those who used the brand in the past but stopped (defectors), with the potential of those who have never bought the brand. On the surface, both groups possess the same propensity to consider the brand for future purchase. However, the underlying reasons for these propensities differ. Defectors hold both positive and negative information about the former brand. In contrast, those who have never bought the brand possess largely neutral opinions. The results imply that managers should consider treating these two groups separately because they require different acquisition strategies.     

中国潜在GDP估计的比较研究——基于1952-2008年度和季度数据

本文区分了潜在GDP的两类定义,即以充分就业理论为基础的非加速通货膨胀失业率(NAIRU)的GDP和以真实经济周期和经济增长理论为基础的趋势GDP,对潜在GDP的各种估计方法进行了比较分析,并尝试使用移动平均法、增长率推算法、HP滤波方法、BP滤波方法、BN分解方法、UC-Kalman滤波方法、C-D生产函数法和SVAR方法等8种方法对年度潜在GDP进行估计,使用HP滤波方法和BP滤波方法对季度潜在GDP进行估计.在此基础上得出各种估计方法在方向性上保持一致等相关结论.     

Monetary policy trade-offs in an estimated open-economy DSGE model

This paper studies the trade-offs between stabilizing CPI inflation and alternative measures of the output gap in Ramses, the Riksbank׳s estimated dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model of a small open economy. Our main finding is that the trade-off between stabilizing CPI inflation and the output gap strongly depends on which concept of potential output in the output gap between output and potential output is used in the loss function. If potential output is defined as a smooth trend this trade-off is much more pronounced compared to the case when potential output is defined as the output level that would prevail if prices and wages were flexible.     

Discrete-space agglomeration model with social interactions: Multiplicity,stability, and continuous limit of equilibria

This study examines the properties of equilibrium, including the stability, of discrete-space agglomeration models with social interactions. The findings reveal that while the corresponding continuous-space model has a unique equilibrium, the equilibrium in discrete space can be non-unique for any finite degree of discretization by characterizing the discrete-space model as a potential game. Furthermore, it indicates that despite the above result, any sequence of discrete-space models’ equilibria converges to the continuous-space model’s unique equilibrium as the discretization of space is refined.     

未来中国区域经济发展空间战略新棋局

"十二五"以来,中国区域发展总体进入相对均衡时期,中西部地区发展势头良好,东北地区振兴初见成效。在区域经济增长的新常态下,通过对区域经济增长阶段的有效组合,可以形成区域接力增长态势,在中西部地区培育新的增长极来接力东部地区的发展。未来支撑中国区域经济发展的梯度化多层次格局为:经济支撑带—"新战略区域"和"潜在新战略区域"—城市新区。未来中国区域经济发展战略新棋局的实现将更多地依赖经济手段和法律手段这两种区域政策作用的发挥。     

An Economic Definition of the Middle Class

The concept of a middle class is prevalent in both common parlance and the social sciences; concern is frequently expressed that the middle class is shrinking, and politicians often position themselves as champions of the middle class. Yet the phrase “middle class” is extremely ambiguous; no consensus exists on either the upper bound or the lower bound separating the middle class from other classes. The present paper employs the government’s official poverty line as the demarcation between the poor and the middle class, and develops an equivalent distinction to separate the middle class from the wealthy. Based on the new definition, the paper provides some rough empirical estimates of the size of the American middle class over the 1989–2004 period.

中小型高科技企业成长性因素耦合机理分析

从成长性角度研究中小型高科技企业成长问题,首先分析了中小型高科技企业成长性的构成因素:企业竞争力、企业成长潜力和环境支持力,在此基础上,进一步分析研究了成长性构成因素之间的关系和耦合机理.     

Weighted congestion games with separable preferences

Players in a congestion game may differ from one another in their intrinsic preferences (e.g., the benefit they get from using a specific resource), their contribution to congestion, or both. In many cases of interest, intrinsic preferences and the negative effect of congestion are (additively or multiplicatively) separable. This paper considers the implications of separability for the existence of pure-strategy Nash equilibrium and the prospects of spontaneous convergence to equilibrium. It is shown that these properties may or may not be guaranteed, depending on the exact nature of player heterogeneity.