States and economic growth: Capacity and constraints

State capacity has become one of the most discussed concepts in development economics and political economy. In this survey we argue that the study of economic history provides vital insights into the process through which modern states have acquired ‘state capacity’. By evaluating the process of state building across a range of different countries in Europe and Asia, we are able to ‘decompress’ the relationship between state capacity and economic growth. Our analysis emphasizes the variegated nature of the state building process. We focus on recent research that helps to elucidate the mechanisms that relate state capacity to economic growth.     

开发长春汽车产业主体功能区的财政政策建议

财政政策对推进主体功能区建设具有重要作用,可以引导资源要素合理流动,促进经济快速发展,推进基本公共服务均等化。长春汽车产业区应作为主体功能区的重点开发区,财政政策要具体地为重点开发汽车产业区提供支持和服务。     

中国省级税制结构变动的主导动因——基于面板门限模型的检验

国际经济一体化和国内政策调整主导了税制结构变化.政策制定者若顺应税制结构一般演变规律相应进行调整将会实现社会和谐发展,调整应同时兼顾国际化带来的冲击.从长期来看,经济发展对税制结构的作用程度减弱.若不存在冲击波动,税制结构将趋于稳定;税收来源的多元化和税收收入的指数化有利于降低税制结构波动程度.因此,开征财产税,实现社会保障的费改税,建构多元化且指数化的税收收入体系是我国中长期税制改革的方向.     

新疆吐鲁番地区农村国债发行情况调查分析

多年来，国债一直是城镇居民投资的热点，农村居民购买国债难的问题日趋突出。一方面，城市内的银行机构承担着国债承购包销任务却完不成承销计划；而另一方面却是农村居民想买而买不到国债。本文对这一问题的深层次原因及农村居民购买国债的可能性进行了分析，在此基础上，提出了拓宽农村居民购买国债渠道的几点建议。     

Optimal foreign debt for Egypt: A stochastic control approach

This study assesses the foreign debt policy in Egypt and contrasts it versus the optimal policy during the period 1985–2008. It also presents a forecast of the optimal debt during the period 2009–2014. The optimal debt policy was derived using an open economy model for Egypt. The uncertainties in the model stem from the uncertainties in the interest or debt service payments and the uncertainties in the rate of return on investments. The stochastic control approach was used to find the optimal debt policy. It was found that Egypt could borrow externally as long as the trend in the rate of return on investments exceeds the trend in the real interest rate or the trend in the rate of the debt service payments. The analysis finds that Egypt's foreign debt was higher than the optimal level before 1997. After 1997, foreign debt seems to converge to the optimal level. However, Egypt's foreign debt is still below its optimal level which results in an opportunity cost for the economy to grow, otherwise, GDP could have recorded a favorable increase.     

Growth,deficits and uncertainty: Theoretical aspects and empirical evidence from a panel of 27 countries

We examine the relationship between fiscal deficits and per-capita income growth in a panel of 27 European countries, allowing for perceived risks, in terms of fiscal sustainability, associated with additional government spending. Such risks are proxied by the conditional variability of manufacturing production and stock market returns and by the unconditional variability of two survey-based economic-sentiment indicators. To help clarifying how fiscal variables impact on growth and to provide a point of reference for the interpretation of the empirical results a structural growth model is first identified. We find evidence of an asymmetric relationship, in that fiscal deficits give rise to adverse growth effects if they coincide with high uncertainty regarding the prospects of the economy and no significant negative growth effects in the low-uncertainty case.     

我国政府支出对经济增长拉动作用研究

运用协整理论等现代计量分析方法,对我国改革开放以来政府支出与经济增长间的关系进行实证研究.结果表明,我国的政府消费支出、投资支出、国债融资与经济增长之间存在长期均衡关系;政府消费支出具有很强的生产性,与投资支出相比更能促进经济增长的实证性结论.     

从出口、消费和投资看当前国债政策

出口、消费和投资是促进经济增长的主要动力之一。本文通过对1998年以来出口环境、收入与消费和投资等方面进行分析 ,认为出口对经济增长的净贡献率将进一步下降 ;随着新旧分配格局的转换 ,居民收入增幅开始下降 ,不同层次居民间收入差距拉大 ,居民总体消费倾向降低 ,影响了消费对经济增长的促进作用。以国债为核心的积极财政政策正是在这种背景下理所当然成为政府的首选。     

深化财政改革应保持收支同步推进

财政的分配职能主要是通过财政的收入与支出来实现的。对任何国家的政府而言，财政收支平衡应该是其财政的最高目标。尽管凯恩斯以后，有些国家政府实行以赤字财政政策来刺激经济增长、扩大需求、实现就业。但是，如果一国政府的财政赤字过大、收支难以平衡的话，那么国民对政府调控经济，发挥其职能作用的信任程度就将大打折扣。在我国，财政收支管理的“越位”与“缺位”问题已经是不争的事实，收入地出两条线的管理也显得极不协调，需要及时地进行改革。     

关于我国国库集中支付制度改革的思考

当前我国财政改革的重点是支出管理改革，而国库集中支付制度是支出管理改革的内容之一，该文首先分析了当前国国库管理体制存在的主要问题和建立国库集中支付制度的必要性，在此基础上提出了建立这一制度的指导,了后提出了关于建立我国国库集中支付制度的一些具体设想。