人类理性与制度选择——基于马克思经济学的分析视角

理性是经济学研究社会经济现象与制度变迁的一个关键词。什么是理性？人类理性包含什么内容？它是怎样形成的？它如何影响人的行为和制度选择？本文试图用马克思主义的观点来回答这些问题。论文上半部分讨论了人类理性的三对范畴：本能理性与认识理性、进化理性与建构理性、个人理性与社会理性,构建一个人类理性模型;下半部分讨论了制度变迁的需求、制度选择的基础与初始条件、制度选择的主体和方式,以及制度选择与国家政治制度、文化意识的关系,构建一个制度选择模型。     

FDI的内资企业溢出和市场选择效应分析——基于中国产业层面数据的检验

本文在Aitken and Harrison（1999）模型的基础上,同时定量检验我国的FDI溢出效应和市场选择效应。①结果显示：（1）我国FDI存在正的产业内溢出效应,但由于受其他产业FDI的抑制,FDI产业内溢出净效应有限;（2）FDI产业间溢出效应远大于产业内溢出净效应;（3）外资对我国内资企业市场选择效果显著,但这种作用小于FDI的溢出效应;（4）开放度越高的产业外资溢出效应和市场选择效应影响越显著。     

我国寿险保费收入与金融资产关联性的实证研究

在金融资产选择理论框架下,从居民投资角度建立了寿险保费收入与部分金融资产间的ECM模型,结果发现:储蓄增长对寿险保费收入短期的贡献大于长期的贡献,加息会在短期内刺激保费增加但长期内却有抑制作用,国债和股票受结构性因素影响未表现出和寿险保费有长期均衡关系.寿险公司应在短期内把部分储蓄转化成保费,在长期内要开发新的营销渠道、加快寿险产品创新、加强保障型产品的开发.     

Nascent ventures competing for start-up capital: Matching reputations and investors

Although nascent ventures have not yet developed a performance-based reputation, the individual reputations of their founders, based on the performance of their earlier ventures, can function as important signals to investors. Selection system theory distinguishes between different types of reputations as well as different types of investors, in order to analyze how particular types of reputations affect the investment behavior of particular types of investors. The empirical setting of this paper is the Dutch film industry, in which we study the impact of different types of reputations of producers and directors on the investment decisions of the three main investors.     

Export prices,selection into exporting and market size: Evidence from China and India

This paper empirically analyses the export pricing behaviour of Chinese and Indian exporters when there is selection into exporting. Previous exchange rate pass-through estimates that did not take selection into account could be biased if selection into exporting is correlated with pricing strategy. We use 6-digit product-level data across high- and low-income export destinations over the period 1994–2007 and assess a number of determinants of the degree of pass-through of exchange rates to export prices, such as the level of external demand, exporter’s wage cost, degree of competition in export markets, currency volatility and the direction of currency movements. We find systematic differences in the pricing strategies of Chinese and Indian exporters while uncovering a selection bias in exports to high-income markets, although the pricing of exports to low-income markets is independent of the decision to export. Export prices do not increase systematically with the destination market per capita income, and tend to be less sensitive in shipments to advanced nations. Export prices of India are sensitive to the volatility of the trade-weighted nominal effective exchange rate (NEER), indicating heterogeneity in prices to maintain competitiveness, but not in China as volatility is insignificant given a fixed currency system. It is also revealed that a country with a relatively flexible currency regime and arms-length trade such as India is more likely to exhibit incomplete pass-through, whereas a country with an inflexible currency system and involved in outward processing trade is more likely to have full pass-through as shown in the case of China.     

大理动车运用所选址方案研究

随着多条铁路引入大理枢纽及周边路网的完善,枢纽内急需增加动车组运用检修存放设施,以满足旅客出行需求及实现大理地区路网通达的需要。在阐述大理枢纽规划和动车组检修工作量的基础上,确定大理动车运用所规模,分析横列式和纵列式2个布置方案,结合动车运用所选址原则提出蛇山方案、苍甸山方案、凤仪方案3个动车运用所选址方案,从运营长度、工程条件、后期发展等方面对3个方案进行综合比选,最终确定经济合理、适应城市规划及铁路科学发展的蛇山方案。动车运用所的建设研究有利于完善大理枢纽功能,提升铁路区域运输能力。     

克隆明星基金投资策略构建及其有效性研究

投资者对简单易行的投资策略梦寐以求。本文在股票价格具有惯性和明星基金具有股票选择能力的现实情况下，设计了一种简单易行的克隆明星基金投资策略，并以实际的金融数据对该种投资策略的有效性进行了实证分析。结果表明：该策略能够产生较好的投资收益，投资者利用该策略进行投资是有效的。     

Take the money or run? Investors' ethical reputation and entrepreneurs' willingness to partner

Drawing on the multi-principal–agent perspective, this research models the influence of venture capitalists' reputation for ethical behavior on entrepreneurs' willingness to partner decisions. We test our model using a two-study design. Study one, a conjoint experiment, revealed that explicit knowledge of past unethical behavior negatively affects entrepreneurs' willingness to partner. Interaction effects revealed that factors previously shown to influence the entrepreneurs' evaluations—investor value-add and investment track record—become largely contingent upon and often subjugated by investors' ethical reputation. Study two, a traditional between-subjects scenario experiment, revealed that when entrepreneurs develop their own perceptions about the ethicality of an investor's prior behaviors, the ethical dimension remains highly influential. Further, we find that as the consequences of rejecting funding become more severe (e.g., possible bankruptcy), entrepreneurs become increasingly willing to partner with unethical investors. We also find that high fear of failure entrepreneurs are less willing to partner with unethical investors than their low fear of failure counterparts.     

Does a cassava research-for-development program have impact at the farm level? Evidence from the Democratic Republic of Congo

This paper evaluates the impact of a cassava research-for-development program on farm level outcomes. The program was implemented in the Democratic Republic of Congo from 2001 to 2009. We apply propensity score matching, Rosenbaum bounds on treatment effects, Altonji et al. method of selection on observables and unobservables and endogenous switching regression to farm survey data collected during the 2009 cropping season. We use these methods to test whether the R4D program has a statistically significant effect on outcomes of interest and if these are not driven by selection on unobservables. Using propensity score matching, we find statistically significant positive effects on household participation in cassava markets, adoption of improved varieties and crop management practices and household food adequacy; and no statistically significant effects on yields and profits. The results show that bias due to selection on unobservables is not severe enough to invalidate the impact estimates. Bias may still be a problem that is present in the analysis. But there is evidence that it is not substantial. Although the program does not have a statistically significant positive effect on yields and profits, the significant program effects on market participation, variety adoption, and food adequacy merit further promotion of the program since these positive outcomes tend to be pre-conditions for realizing long-term yield and profit benefits.