发展粮食期货市场 促进粮食市场化改革

随着粮食生产经营的全面市场化,健全和完善粮食期货市场有了更重要的现实意义:调节粮食供求,稳定粮食价格;优化粮食品种结构,推动产业化经营;为粮食企业提供避险渠道;减轻入世冲击,保护粮食安全。文章指出发展粮食期货市场的政策措施包括:推出大宗粮食期货交易品种;培育和发展套期保值用户;规范粮食现货市场;发展商品投资基金;开创场外交易;调整不符合国际惯例的法规政策。     

现代通货膨胀和现代通货紧缩

现代通货膨胀和现代通货紧缩是市场经济必然的现象，但现代通货紧缩基本上发生在发达国家和发达地区，这就证明最不繁荣的现代通货紧缩也比最繁荣的现代通货膨胀要优越。     

股票回购中内幕交易与股价操纵行为规制——由新《公司法》第一百四十三条引发的思考

新<公司法>增加了股票回购事由的条款,放宽了对股票回购的限制.但在股票回购的立法方面,总体上仍较为简单、粗略,缺乏具体的操作规则,没有形成完整、严密的规制体系.由于立法模式的差异,各国对股票回购过程中内幕交易及股价操纵行为的管制形式也有所不同.对欧美等国对股票回购过程中的内幕交易和股价操纵行为的监管进行比较分析,可以为我国股票回购实施过程中如何抑制股价操纵行为提供启示.     

配股融资股价效应的实证研究

随着我国股市的发展，上市公司的融资方式也不断创新，配股融资作为股权融资的一种方式逐渐成为上市公司再融资的首选。配股融资虽然具有许多优点，但是我国上市公司没有充分发挥配股融资的长处，为了“圈钱”而“圈钱”，并且资金配置效率低下，对股市的负面影响日渐突出。通过2000年实施配股的43家样本公司配股公告日股价的变动，对配股融资的股价效应进行实证分析，并提出相应的政策建议。     

资本市场开放与公司内部控制质量——基于“沪港通”的证据

以中国“沪港通”交易制度的实施为政策背景,采用多时点双重差分模型,考察资本市场开放对标的公司内部控制质量的影响,研究发现,“沪港通”交易制度的实施显著提升了公司的内部控制质量,在控制其他因素并经过安慰剂检验、去除A+H股影响、改变周期范围等稳健性检验后,结论依然成立。机制检验表明,“沪港通”主要通过内部和外部两种机制对公司内部控制质量产生影响,其中,内部机制是对股价波动性风险控制,外部机制是审计师声誉风险与政府部门监管。     

Noisy chaotic dynamics in commodity markets

The nonlinear testing and modeling of economic and financial time series has increased substantially in recent years, enabling us to better understand market and price behavior, risk and the formation of expectations. Such tests have also been applied to commodity market behavior, providing evidence of heteroskedasticity, chaos, long memory, cyclicity, etc. The present evaluation of futures price behavior confirms that the resulting price movements can be random, suggesting noisy chaotic behavior. Prices could thus follow a mean process that is dynamic chaotic, coupled with a variance that follows a GARCH process. Our conclusion is that models of this type could be constructed to assist in forecasting prices in the short run but not over long run time periods.First version received: June 2001/Final version received: March 2003     

Utility Regulation and Risk Allocation: The Roles of Marginal Cost Pricing and Futures Markets

The effects on consumer welfare of requiring a utility facing cost or demand risk to use either a fixed retail price or marginal cost pricing are assessed. With marginal cost pricing and cost volatility an efficient futures market allows consumer welfare to be at least as high in every state as with the fixed price. With demand risk marginal cost pricing can benefit the consumer in every state without harming the firm if the profit difference is transferred to the consumer. A futures market can act as a partial replacement for the transfer.     

Collusive Long-Run Investments Under Transmission Price-Caps

In the short run, constraints in the electricity transmission system may give market power to generators. This paper examines whether the constraints themselves are a long-run equilibrium outcome in a competitive environment. We show that independent transmission companies and generators can tacitly collude to raise prices to consumers and divide the resulting profits. We also show that price cap regulation does not prevent this behavior and may in fact contribute to it. The mechanism for collusion is that generators locate their plants so that a capacity-constrained transmission line lies between them and their consumer market. We show that this constraint-based collusion can be sustained in a static game without any punishment strategies.     

地价杠杆在城市经营中的调控作用——以南京市为例

本文紧密结合经营城市这个热点问题，首次系统地阐述了地价杠杆在城市经营中的重要作用。并结合南京市1998－1999年的土地出让实际工作成果，运用文中提出的观点，设立不同的口径进行详细分析与对照。通过综合分析与尝试，一方面，说明地价杠杆在政府经营城市的过程中具有不可替代的地位；另一方面，城市政府完全可以运用地价杠杆的经济特性，趋利避害，更好地促进国民经济的健康有序发展。     

房地产价格风险：国际教训、中国的现状及路径选择

房地产泡沫会增加金融风险,房价大幅缩水会导致银行破产,股市下跌。日本、美国、英国、泰国等都爆发过与房地产相关的银行危机。目前,中国房地产金融具有市场风险、财务风险、道德风险和信用风险等潜在风险。应利用税收手段限制投机性购房和短期炒作行为,鼓励中小户型住房的消费,加强城镇廉租住房制度建设,防范“假按揭”风险,完善惩戒机制,加强利率风险管理,完善住房置业担保制度,进一步研究制定房贷保险制度。