信息不对称条件下的债务约束机制

债务水平表达了企业经营的信息,投资者利用这种信息可以评估企业的质量。在信息不对称条件下,债务首先成为红利的有效替代形式,具有减少企业自由现金流的作用,从而对管理者起到市场监督和提高资金使用效率的作用;其次,当企业出现债务违约时,就要进入破产程序,且由债权人决定是否清算或重组,为避免这种情况的发生,企业管理者将债务保持在最优水平;再者,债务期限结构的匹配模型,使得企业管理者将债务的期限结构保持在科学合理的状态,从而实现资本结构的优化。     

时间约束与休闲消费

本文构建了一个引入“时间约束”的休闲消费模型，并基于时间密集型休闲品和物品密集型休闲品的休闲消费二分法，探讨了消费者最优休闲消费选择的条件，分析了工资率、非工资收入、工作时间变化对休闲消费选择的影响。     

数字普惠金融发展是否显著影响了居民消费——来自中国家庭的微观证据

本文就数字普惠金融的发展对居民消费的影响进行了理论探讨和实证检验。研究结论表明:(1)数字普惠金融的发展显著促进了样本期的居民消费,且这一促进效应在农村地区、中西部地区以及中低收入阶层家庭更为明显,同时数字普惠金融发展中除覆盖广度外,使用深度以及使用深度指标中支付、保险与货币基金这三个子指标均显著促进居民消费;(2)数字普惠金融主要通过缓解流动性约束、便利居民支付两种机制促进了样本期的居民消费;(3)使用工具变量法以及将数据集替换为中国劳动力动态调查数据的估计结果表明结论比较稳健和可靠;(4)人力资本差异的分样本回归结果显示,当户主的受教育程度越高、认知能力越强时,数字普惠金融对样本期居民消费的促进效应更为明显;(5)数字普惠金融的发展显著促进衣着、居住、日用品、交通通信以及其他商品和服务的消费支出;(6)家庭债务收入比的分样本回归结果显示,数字普惠金融的发展仅仅促进了中低债务收入比家庭的消费支出,而对高债务收入比家庭的消费支出却存在不显著的抑制效应,同时数字普惠金融的发展确实增加了家庭的债务收入比,因此在积极推动数字普惠金融发展的同时,也需提防居民家庭债务的过度和过快增长。     

融资约束与中国企业对外直接投资模式:跨国并购还是绿地投资

本文在Manova(2008)理论研究的基础上,引入绿地投资和跨国并购两种投资方式,发现融资能力强的企业更倾向于选择跨国并购,于是运用2003—2010年中国工业企业中发生跨国并购和绿地投资的企业数据,实证检验融资约束如何影响企业对外直接投资的模式。结果表明:融资约束低的企业选择跨国并购的概率更大,融资约束相对较高的企业则选择绿地投资,具体表现为融资约束降低1%,企业选择跨国并购的概率将增加2.51%;在不同投资动机下,融资约束的影响有所差异,在商贸服务和生产型投资动机下,融资约束低的企业选择跨国并购的概率更大,而技术研发动机下,融资约束则不影响投资模式选择。     

Short-term institutions’ information advantage and overvaluation

Prior literature has documented that institutions which trade more frequently are better able to forecast future returns and have an informational advantage. This study examines a proximate explanation for the differences in performance based on institutions’ investment horizon – short-term institutions are better informed because they are better able to identify overvalued stocks that are short-sale constrained and overvalued in the context of Miller’s (1977) overvaluation hypothesis. Analysis is conducted on 6330 unique firms from 1996 to 2014 using the calendar-time portfolio approach where abnormal returns are estimated from the Fama-French-Carhart four-factor regression model. The results provide evidence that stocks which are extremely overvalued due to short-sale constraints have the greatest decline in short-term institutional ownership, consistent with the notion that short-term institutions are able to correctly assess the components for stock overvaluation.     

The effect of short-sale restrictions on the information transmission of extended index futures trading

During the global financial crisis, two types of short-sale restrictions, i.e., the uptick restriction and the naked short-sale ban, were introduced in the Taiwan Stock Exchange (TWSE). This provides an opportunity to examine whether these two types of short-sale restrictions reduce the speed at which the overnight spot returns and the trading period spot returns adjust to the bad news revealed through the index futures returns during the post-close and pre-open extensions. The results of the threshold GARCH(1,1) model show that only the short-sale ban significantly reduced the speed at which the overnight spot returns react to the bad news revealed by the futures returns of the TWSE index during the pre-open extended session     

干得好不如嫁得好?——房价变动与居民婚姻观念研究

房价的快速上涨是近年来我国经济中的重要现象,对宏观经济增长乃至微观个人的观念与行为都产生了重大的影响,但尚未有研究系统考察房价变化对居民婚姻观念的影响。房价上涨反映了对未来预期的不确定性,这种不确定性势必会影响到人们对工作与婚姻的权衡。本文基于中国综合社会调查(CGSS)2010和2015年数据,详细考察了房价变动对人们在工作与婚姻之间权衡的影响,用人们对“干得好不如嫁得好”的看法来衡量工作与婚姻的权衡。研究结果表明,房价涨幅越高,居民对“干得好不如嫁得好”的认同感越高,且这种现象主要体现在女性群体中。异质性分析表明,女性、未婚女性、已婚女性、女性流动人口、城镇户籍女性以及拥有女儿数量越多的人在工作与婚姻的权衡中更倾向于通过婚姻来抵御未来预期不确定性产生的风险。房价上涨主要通过财富效应和预算约束效应对人们在工作与婚姻之间的权衡产生影响。     

The financial distress pricing puzzle in banking firms

This paper examines whether the financial distress pricing puzzle observed for non-financial firms is also observed for financial firms and how this puzzle differs according to the extent of short-sale constraints. By using the eight distress measures developed for financial firms, we find that there is a strong negative relation in the cross-section between financial distress and subsequent bank stock returns, regardless of adjustment for risk. However, this distress pricing puzzle is statistically significant only for high short-sale constrained banks, but not for low short-sale constrained banks. Thus, short-sale constraints are at least one non-risk attribute that causes the distress pricing puzzle for financial firms. We also find that despite its simple form, compared to the other complex distress measures, non-performing loans (NPLs) are the most informative in predicting future bank stock returns as well as bankruptcy and failure.     

Short-sale refinancing and price adjustment speed to bad news: Evidence from a quasi-natural experiment in China

Short selling may accelerate stock price adjustment to negative news. However, the literature provides mixed evidence for this prediction. Using short-sale refinancing and a staggered difference-in-differences (DID) model, this paper explores the effect of short selling on stock price adjustment. Our results show that (1) short-sale refinancing improves the speed of stock price adjustment to negative news. This result holds after we control for endogeneity. (2) The positive relationship between short-sale refinancing and stock price adjustment speed is significant in subsamples of stocks with higher earnings management or lower accuracy of analyst forecasts, indicating that firms with more opaque information are more likely to be targeted by short sellers. In subsamples of stocks with a higher ownership concentration or lower ownership by institutional investors, short selling is more likely to increase the speed of stock price adjustment, indicating that ownership structure may influence negative news mining. (3) As short-sale refinancing exacerbates the absorption of bad news by stock prices, it increases crash risk. This study enriches the research on the economic consequences of short selling and provides empirical evidence supporting regulations on short selling in China.