Switching from complete to incomplete information

We construct an elementary mechanism [Dutta, B., Sen, A., Vohra, R., 1995. Nash implementation through elementary mechanisms in economic environments. Review of Economic Design 1, 173–203] that Nash implements the constrained Walrasian correspondence. We extend it to incomplete and non-exclusive information economies by enlarging the message space of agents. In addition, measurability restrictions on allocations with respect to prices proper to constrained rational expectations equilibria are imposed in the outcome function. We show that by imposing such restrictions, the mechanism Bayesian implements the constrained rational expectations equilibrium correspondence. This result shows game-theoretic connections between these two market equilibrium concepts. However, these connections are obtained at the price of strong restrictions on the behavior of agents.     

基于绩效评价的员工激励研究

当前,人力资源管理的战略导向性愈益明显。由于人的复杂性、社会分工的加深和交易的频繁性,激励机制设计一直是信息经济学和人力资源管理实践关注的重要问题。本文在分析经典代理模型基础上,逐步释放假设,分别基于客观绩效评价和主观绩效评价分析了企业最优激励的选择。研究结论认为,企业在实践中要综合考虑客观绩效评价和主观绩效评价的结果来设计激励制度,正式契约可以通过前者来降低由关系契约产生的额外激励成本和违约风险,关系契约则通过后者减少正式契约产生的激励扭曲问题。     

Competitive equilibrium hyperinflation under rational expectations

This paper shows that a competitive equilibrium model, where a representative agent maximizes welfare, expectations are rational and markets are in equilibrium can account for several hyperinflation stylized facts. The theory is built by combining two hypotheses, namely, a fiscal crisis that requires printing money to finance an increasing public deficit and a predicted change in an unsustainable fiscal regime.We thank an anonymous referee for very helpful comments. A. B. Cunha acknowledges financial support from the Brazilian Council of Science and Technology (CNPq).     

Further evidence on the rationality of interest rate expectations

This paper extends the limited work on interest rate expectations to a previously unexploited data set that covers a broad range of EMS and non-EMS foreign currency deposits. We corroborate the earlier finding in the literature that interest rate forecasts are not rational and that agents do not use all available information in an efficient manner; this finding applies to the post-1990 period, thus questioning the assertion of Frankel and Froot [Frankel, J.F., Froot, K.A., 1987a. Using survey data to test standard propositions regarding exchange rate expectations. American Economic Review 77, 151] that “the nature of the rejection of rational expectations strongly depends on the sample period”. Although forecast errors on EMS rates are smaller and less volatile than errors on non-EMS rates, expectations on EMS rates are nevertheless biased.     

Default prediction with dynamic sectoral and macroeconomic frailties

This paper extends the macroeconomic frailty model to include sectoral frailty factors that capture default correlations among firms in a similar business. We estimate sectoral and macroeconomic frailty factors and their effects on default intensity using the data for Japanese firms from 1992 to 2010. We find strong evidence for the presence of sectoral frailty factors even after accounting for the effects of observable covariates and macroeconomic frailty on default intensity. The model with sectoral frailties performs better than that without. Results show that accounting for the sources of unobserved sectoral default risk covariations improves the accuracy of default probability estimation.     

Pro-poor tourism: residents' expectations,experiences and perceptions in the Kakum National Park Area of Ghana

This paper examines Ghana's evolving tourism policies with special reference to its spatial and pro-poor impacts. Using a sample of 182 respondents around the Kakum National Park in Ghana's Central Region, an area which is rich in tourism assets but economically poor, it examines residents’ expectations, experiences and perceptions about tourism development in the area. While some expectations were too much, others had been met, if only somewhat. Residents’ experiences in terms of direct socio-economic benefits were modest. But largely on account of indirect gains from a range of pro-poor interventions, the majority had a fairly positive perception of tourism in the area. Respondents of communities beyond the Park's reception area had gained more from associated interventions rather than from tourism. Age and place of birth were also found to be key variables that influenced residents’ perspectives on tourism development in the area. Nevertheless, residents’ overall perception suggests that sustainable tourism development requires an approach that simultaneously improves the tourism product and enhances residents’ livelihood options. The need for residents to be involved in decision-making if pro-poor tourism is to be successful was underlined.     

Heterogeneous real-time trading strategies in the foreign exchange market

The foreign exchange (FX) market is worldwide, but the dealers differ in their geographical locations (time zones), working hours, time horizons, home currencies, access to information,transaction costs, and other institutional constraints. The variety of time horizones is large: from intra-day dealers, who close their positions every evening, to long-term investors and central banks. Depending on the constraints, the different market participats need different strategies to reach their goal, which is usually maximizing the profit, or rather a utility function including risk. Different intra-day trading strategies can be studied only if high-density data are available. Oslen & Associates (O & A) has collected and analysed large amounts of FX quotes by market makers around the clock (up to 5000 non-equally spaced prices per day for the German mark against US$). Based on these data, a set of real-time intra-day trading models has been developed. These models give explicit trading recommendations under realistic constraints. They are allowed to trade only during the opening hours of a market, depending on the time zone and local holidays. The models have been running real-time for more than three years, thus leading to an ex ante test. The test results, obtained with a risk-sensitive performance measure, are presented. All these trading models are profitable, but they differ in their risk behaviour and dealing frequency. If a certain profitable intra-day algorithm is tested with different working hours, its success can considerably change. A systematic study shows that the best choice of working hours is usually when the most important markets for the particular FX rate are active. All the results demonstrate that the assumption of a homogeneous 24-hour FX market with identical dealers, following an identical ‘rational expectation’, is far from reality. To explain the market dynamics, a heterogeneous model of the market with different types of dealers is more appropriate.     

Strategic Types and Growth Strategies Used by Public Accounting Firms

ABSTRACT

Results of a survey of accounting firms suggests that market penetration is the preferred strategy among accounting firms followed by market development, service development and diversification. Using the Miles and Snow typology, prospectors were most aggressive in their preference for any strategy, followed by analyzers, defenders and reactors. Most small accounting firms were self typed as defenders or reactors suggesting their use of marketing concepts and strategies is limited.     

Results of a Delphi survey in drawing up the input-output tables for Catalonia

This work presents the results of an ambitious and innovative use of the Delphi technique in supplying a quantitative economic model, specifically in the preparation of the Input-Output Tables for Catalonia (TIOC 2001). Using this technique for obtaining subjective information from experts comes forward as a valid and reliable option for improving the quality of the data with which the Input-Output tables are constructed, also providing further economic and social advantages. The application presented thus opens up an interesting field of development for this technique and also gives several contributions for appraising the execution of a Delphi exercise of this type.     

利率期限结构预期理论的实证研究——基于中国国债收益率

预期理论是理解利率期限结构的基本理论,其成立与否对于投资者和央行决策具有重要影响。文章以中国国债收益率的数据为样本,运用回归分析法实证检验利率期限结构预期理论。研究发现,利率期限不同,结果不同。中度波动利率序列能够支持预期理论,而高度和低度波动利率序列均拒绝预期理论。其原因在于央行的货币政策导致不同期限利率升贴水的相对变化。