Expectations and learning under alternative monetary regimes: an experimental approach

Summary We design and analyze experimental versions of monetary overlapping generations economies under alternative policy regimes. Economies with a constant level of real deficit financed through seignorage, economies in which the level of deficit is adapted in order to follow a monetary policy with a target rate of inflation, and economies with preannounced changes in deficit levels are reported here. We also examine the behavior of an economy with no stationary competitive equilibrium. Our time series are compared to rational expectations equilibrium paths and to adaptive learning dynamics.Financial support for our work from the Graduate School of the University of Minnesota, the National Science Foundation (SES-8912552), Richard M. and Margaret Cyert Family Funds, and the Ministry of Education of Spain is gratefully acknowledged. We wish to thank Javier Diaz-Giménez, Jean Michael Grandmont, Robert Lucas, Albert Marcet, Charles Plott, Edward Prescott, Thomas Sargent, Neil Wallace and Michael Woodford for commenting on our work. We also thank Vijay Rajan for developing the software for the computerized experimental environment, and Jackie Cuccaro and Dhananjay Gode for their research assistance.     

Switching from complete to incomplete information

We construct an elementary mechanism [Dutta, B., Sen, A., Vohra, R., 1995. Nash implementation through elementary mechanisms in economic environments. Review of Economic Design 1, 173–203] that Nash implements the constrained Walrasian correspondence. We extend it to incomplete and non-exclusive information economies by enlarging the message space of agents. In addition, measurability restrictions on allocations with respect to prices proper to constrained rational expectations equilibria are imposed in the outcome function. We show that by imposing such restrictions, the mechanism Bayesian implements the constrained rational expectations equilibrium correspondence. This result shows game-theoretic connections between these two market equilibrium concepts. However, these connections are obtained at the price of strong restrictions on the behavior of agents.     

Locating audit expectations gap within a cultural context: The case of Saudi Arabia

This paper offers an insight into the types of ‘audit expectations gap’ that exist within a cultural context. Specifically, it investigates if the business and social environment affect the perceptions of audit performance of users and auditors. Using a combination of mail questionnaires and semi-structured interviews, the study reveals the existence of a ‘performance gap’ with respect to the roles specified in the statutory pronouncements and those that can reasonably be expected of auditors in Saudi Arabia. The results further indicate the ‘performance gap’ arises from four factors in the environment within which auditing is practiced: licensing policy, recruitment process, the political and legal structure, and dominant societal values. Interview results reveal the influence of institutional and cultural settings on the audit expectations gap and indicate that the inclusion of Islamic principles in auditing standards and the code of ethics would help reduce the expectations gap that exists in Saudi Arabia.     

从企业通胀预期看资产价格对物价水平的影响——基准模型与中国借鉴

企业作为市场经济的重要参与主体,其行为对物价水平有着显著影响,而受资产价格影响的企业通货膨胀预期是重要因素之一。综合运用理论分析与数理分析,对传导渠道进行研究发现：资产价格通过现有物价水平、企业对未来影响物价水平因素以及发生财务危机的预期使企业通货膨胀预期发生更大幅度的同向变化,进而使总需求正向变化,总供给负向变化,从而对物价水平产生正向的影响,且这种影响在发达国家更为明显。     

基于绩效评价的员工激励研究

当前,人力资源管理的战略导向性愈益明显。由于人的复杂性、社会分工的加深和交易的频繁性,激励机制设计一直是信息经济学和人力资源管理实践关注的重要问题。本文在分析经典代理模型基础上,逐步释放假设,分别基于客观绩效评价和主观绩效评价分析了企业最优激励的选择。研究结论认为,企业在实践中要综合考虑客观绩效评价和主观绩效评价的结果来设计激励制度,正式契约可以通过前者来降低由关系契约产生的额外激励成本和违约风险,关系契约则通过后者减少正式契约产生的激励扭曲问题。     

Short-Run Supply Responses in the U.S. Beef-Cattle Industry

This article investigates the response of beef-cattle producers to changes in the price of cattle. Previous research has suggested that there may be a negative short-run supply response to a permanent increase in the price of cattle. We build a dynamic, rational expectations model that separates the markets for fed and unfed beef. This separation generates predictions that the supply response is generally positive, even for permanent shocks in the short run, and nests the negative supply response as a special case for appropriately restricted demand shocks.     

A research on wage status and wage expectations of migrant workers in Hulan District

Since 2004, there has been the succession of migrant workers labor shortage all over the country. Among the factors causing farmers to hunt jobs in cities, wage plays a decisive role. So in this paper, it made an investigation and research on wages status and salary expectations of migrant workers in Hulan District. There are three main problems of migrant workers wages in Hulan District： The migrant workers＇ average wage is less than the community average wage; the wages were cut down in fact because of long working hours, as well as the low rate of return. In this district, the wage expectation of migrant workers on average is between 1341.8 and 1496.9 Yuan, that is 0.91-1.01 times as many as local minimum wage standard （after adding the overtime pay）; and 0.98-1.12 times as many as AVG salary last year. At last, it gives some suggestions： The enterprises should raise the standard of wages referring to the wage expectation of local migrant workers; local government should enhance skill trainings for migrant workers.     

Rational expectations equilibria and the ex-post core of an economy with asymmetric information

We study the relationship between the set of rational expectations equilibrium allocations and the ex-post core of exchange economies with asymmetric information.     

国外真实工作预览研究综述

在真实工作预览（Realistic Job Previews）理论文献研究的基础上，回顾了其理论研究的开始过程，并对真实工作预览产生作用的不同心理机制，以及实施过程中的媒介和内容研究进行了介绍，并重点分析了目前真实工作预览研究中存在的相关争议。文章最后还探讨了该研究领域对我们的启示和未来可能的理论发展方向。