Combining multiple probability predictions using a simple logit model

This paper begins by presenting a simple model of the way in which experts estimate probabilities. The model is then used to construct a likelihood-based aggregation formula for combining multiple probability forecasts. The resulting aggregator has a simple analytical form that depends on a single, easily-interpretable parameter. This makes it computationally simple, attractive for further development, and robust against overfitting. Based on a large-scale dataset in which over 1300 experts tried to predict 69 geopolitical events, our aggregator is found to be superior to several widely-used aggregation algorithms.     

The effects of news events on market contagion: Evidence from the 2007–2009 financial crisis

In this paper, we use the quantile regression technique along with coexceedance, a contagion measure, to assess the extent to which news events contribute to contagion in the stock markets during the crisis period between 2007 and 2009. Studies have shown that, not only the subprime crisis leads to a global recession, but the effects on the global stock markets have also been significant. We track the news events, both in the UK and the US, using the global recession timeline. We observe that the news events related to ad hoc bailouts of individual banks from the UK have a contagion effect throughout the period for most of the countries under investigation. This, however, is not found to be the case for the news events originating from the US. Our findings regarding the evidence of contagion effects in the UK reinforce the argument that spreads and contagion—an outcome of the risk perception of financial markets—are solely a result of the behaviour of investors or other financial market participants.     

An analysis of media violence in commercials aired during the telecasts of sports events

The violence contained in television commercials has received less attention than other areas of media violence research. This study analyzed violent content in the Super Bowl commercials that aired between 2001 and 2009. Twenty-two percent of the Super Bowl commercials appearing from 2001 to 2009 contained some type of violence. A number of quantifications related to types of violence, targets and perpetrators of violent acts, and reasons for violence, among others, are reported. Subsequently, the relationships between the contextual factors of the violence and commercial likeability were examined.     

Exploring the relationships between motivation,attachment and loyalty within sport event tourism

Attendance at sports events continues to rise, as evidenced by increased attendance across a range of sports events in 2014. Despite this, destinations that host live sports events struggle to attract repeat visitors outside scheduled events. This study aims to better understand the relationship between motivation, attachment and loyalty within event tourism. This paper discusses the existing contributions in these areas by drawing on sport and tourism literature and is the first to investigate the relationship across all three constructs. Within this paper, we develop the initial outline of a theoretical model, which depicts these relationships.     

Understanding conflicting perspectives in event planning and management using Q method

There is a need to better understand the interests of actors in the planning and management of major events. The diversity of actor perspectives about an event creates a wicked problem set that event organisers and public officials find difficult to understand, let alone address. This paper focuses on problem identification as one stage in the event planning and management process. It explores how problem structuring can contribute to more effective planning and management of actors' interests. The value of Q methodology is explored through a case study of the Australian World Rally Championship. Four perspectives are identified in the problem structuring process: the Skeptics, the Materialists, the Middle-grounders and the Supporters. The findings demonstrate that Q methodology is effective in identifying the depth and breadth of different problem perspectives, providing insights into the importance of different perspectives, and can be used reflexively to anticipate and manage potential conflict.     

The effectiveness of the ECB’s unconventional monetary policy: Comparative evidence from crisis and non-crisis Euro-area countries

During the European financial crisis, the European Central Bank implemented a series of unconventional monetary policy measures. We argue that these programs lowered the bond yield spreads of Euro-area countries. This hypothesis is tested using pooled OLS estimations and two different datasets: monetary policy event dummies and the purchase volumes of the Securities Markets Programme (SMP). Overall, we find significantly negative effects on bond yield spreads for both datasets, leading us to accept the hypothesis. While the OMT reduces the spreads of both crisis and non-crisis countries, LTROs and the lowering of the deposit rate to 0 percent are mainly effective in non-crisis countries. The SMP lowers the spreads of crisis countries, but it has the opposite effect on non-crisis countries. This converse effect is explained by the risk that increasingly accumulates on the ECB’s balance sheet through the SMP and that way constitutes a fiscal risk for non-crisis countries. The results are confirmed by pooled OLS estimations that measure the effect of unconventional monetary policy on central government debt.     

Unconventional Monetary Policy in the Eurozone: A Lack of Forward Guidance?

From July to December 2011, the three-month EURIBOR-OIS and EURIBOR-Repo spreads quadrupled and reached 100 basis points due to a stabilization of the EURIBOR and a decrease in the overnight index swap (OIS) and Repo. Using a specific monetary policy announcements and financial indicators database, we find that the European Central Bank’s (ECB’s) unconventional measures did not systematically have a calming effect: Asset buyout announcements decreased market strains, whereas interest rates and liquidity provision announcements did not. Moreover, liquidity provision seems to have a stressing effect. Our findings are consistent with the theoretical underpinnings according to which forward guidance crucially determines the effectiveness of unconventional monetary policies.     

基于事项凭证类别的分析与设计

在基于事项法会计研究的基础上,具体探讨了事项凭证的应用,核心研究企业经济业务活动分类及事项凭证类别,并以采购收款业务为例,详述如何借助不同类别的事项凭证格式进行经济业务的采集处理,从而实现事项凭证的生成。     

部队处置突发事件信息安全管理对策研究

通过搞好信息安全教育、完善信息安全管理机制、增加信息安全管理的科技力量等措施,确保信息管理安全可靠。     

思想政治教育介入社会群体性冲突事件的机制探析

社会群体性冲突事件严重影响社会的和谐与稳定,思想政治教育是党的优良传统和政治优势,与行政、司法手段比较在妥善处置社会群体性冲突事件中更加有效,研究思想政治教育介入群体性冲突事件的原则、策略,对于有效预防和妥善处置社会群体性冲突事件具有积极意义。