Expanding airport capacity of cities under uncertainty: Strategies to mitigate congestion

Airport capacity constraints are increasingly challenging the growth of air traffic. At the same time, decision-making about airport capacity investments is extremely complex, involving trade-offs. This paper’s objective is to optimise a privately owned airport system’s capacity investment decision in a city under demand uncertainty. Next to the investment size, our real options model incorporates the timing of the investment, as well as the cost of congestion. The results reveal that the larger a city’s initial airport capacity, the smaller its investment will relatively be and the lower the occupancy rate threshold at which investment will take place. We also show that, in case of a higher demand growth combined with more demand uncertainty, the city will benefit from a significantly larger investment, but made later at a higher occupancy rate. In this case, cities with a small initial capacity will sometimes even more than double current capacity. Higher airport charges and an increase in non-aeronautical revenues both lead to a later investment in more capacity, due to the increased project attractiveness. An increase in congestion costs results in a larger investment made earlier, in order to eliminate delays. Airport operational cost and capacity holding cost increases both lead to smaller investments.     

Implementing efficient conservation portfolio design

Modern tools for cost-effective conservation reserve site planning require the planner to have information about spatial distributions of conservation costs and benefits. Climate change creates unprecedented uncertainty about future land values and species habitat ranges, such that conservation scientists cannot map costs and benefits with certainty anymore. This paper contributes to the literature on the economics of conservation in the face of climate change uncertainty. It advances a new method for using modern portfolio theory to choose lands to protect that yield total conservation returns with less uncertainty. It explores the implications for portfolio recommendations of variation in the correlations between ecological and land-value responses to climate change. It also tests the robustness of the method to shortcuts that might be taken to simplify analysis, identifying problems that arise if conservation costs are ignored in portfolio analysis and demonstrating when portfolio recommendations are sensitive to how ecological benefits are quantified.     

Universal type structures with unawareness

Infinite hierarchies of awareness and beliefs arise in games with unawareness, similarly to belief hierarchies in standard games. A natural question is whether each hierarchy describes the playerʼs awareness of the hierarchies of other players and beliefs over these, or whether the reasoning can continue indefinitely. This paper constructs the universal type structure with unawareness where each type has an awareness level and a belief over types. Countable hierarchies are therefore sufficient to describe all uncertainty in games with unawareness.     

环境不确定下企业孵化网络治理机制对治理绩效影响研究

从企业孵化网络本身以及环境视角分析了企业孵化网络治理绩效的影响因素,通过企业孵化网络治理机制对治理绩效关系的实证分析,验证了环境不确定下企业孵化网络的契约治理机制、管理治理机制对治理绩效的影响。结果表明:企业孵化网络治理机制中的契约治理机制、关系治理机制对治理绩效具有正向调节作用;环境不确定性会扩大或缩小治理机制对治理绩效的作用强度。企业孵化网络在高市场不确定性环境下,采用关系治理机制的绩效较好;在高技术不确定性环境下,采用契约治理机制的绩效较好。     

The role of openness in the fuzzy front-end of service innovation

The early stages of innovation involve high levels of uncertainty, leading to it being labelled as the “fuzzy-front end” (FFE). Although openness has been identified as pivotal to innovation performance in the open innovation literature, little effort has been put into exploring its role in the FFE. Specifically, this study examines ‘openness competence’ within the FFE–i.e., the ability of a FFE team to explore, gather and assimilate operant resources from external sources by means of external searches and inter-organisational partnerships. The aim is to investigate the impact of openness competence on front-end uncertainty reduction and service innovation success. Data were obtained from a survey of 122 IT-based service innovation projects implemented by IT service provider firms in Thailand. The results suggest that openness competence positively influences both the degree of uncertainty being reduced during the FFE and the overall success of service innovations. These findings offer several implications for research on open innovation and the FFE as well as encouragement to managers to apply a more open approach to the FFE of their service innovation projects.     

Mr. Market's Mind: Finance's Hard Problem

The market as a mind is the implicit premise in any discussion on whether the market is rational or not. Still, its implications, in terms of ontology and epistemology, are hardly understood. In particular, this paper defines the market's version of the mind-body problem and labels it as finance's “hard” problem. Its denial by modern finance causes this dominant paradigm to fail in dealing with reality in general and to produce incomplete investment knowledge in particular. Finally, as part of facing up to this problem, this paper offers a glimpse at a practical approach which may enrich investment research.     

CEO环境不确定性感知与企业创新模式选择关系研究

基于高阶理论与调节焦点理论,通过中国373家企业问卷调查数据,探讨CEO环境不确定性感知对企业创新模式选择的影响机制。结果表明：CEO环境不确定性感知对企业渐进性创新与突破性创新均具有显著正向影响;高管团队行为整合在CEO环境不确定性感知与企业创新间发挥部分中介作用;CEO特质调节焦点正向调节CEO环境不确定性感知与高管团队行为整合之间的关系,同时正向调节上述中介机制。     

金融发展与中国的经济增长——从储蓄动员型向市场配置的消费型经济转变

隐形税收机制瓦解后,储蓄动员型的金融发展模式取代了财政投资的主导地位,通过金融支持政策为公有经济部门融资,支撑了经济的高速增长。然而,随着市场约束机制的变化,金融支持政策的收益逐渐下降,成本却在递增。本文认为储蓄动员型的金融支持政策在一定阶段促进了经济的发展,但是也伴随着一系列经济发展的成本,比如降低了资本配置效率,过度投资产生的宏观经济成本和经济持续增长的外部风险加大等。因此,中国金融体制应深化改革,提高金融体系的资本配置效率,促进技术进步和生产效率的改进。同时,通过发展消费信贷和商业保险,减少信贷约束和不确定性,推动消费型经济的增长。     

不确定性下的房地产价格波动与货币政策反应:一个文献综述

本文就货币政策如何应对房地产泡沫的研究文献进行述评。国内外学者在该领域的争论集中表现为间接反应观、事后反应观与直接干预观,已有文献对货币政策框架进行修正以应对房价异常波动,并且学者们就金融监管的作用已经达成理论共识。本文的主要结论是:政策环境中的不确定性是影响政策选择的决定性因素,在不确定性条件下,货币政策应该综合运用直接干预与间接反应方式应对房价泡沫;货币政策与金融审慎监管的协调配合有助于实现经济金融稳定的目标;运用房贷政策调控房价泡沫更具政策效力。目前,国内学者的理论研究基础还十分薄弱,缺乏结合中国经济转型背景下特定制度性因素的现实考察,另外,将研究视角拓展为开放经济条件是值得进一步研究的方向。     

离子色谱法检测饲料级氯化胆碱含量的测量不确定度评定

本文对影响离子色谱法检测饲料级氯化胆碱含量的不确定度产生来源进行了分析,建立相应的数学模型,并对数学模型中各个不确定度分量进行了评定。利用测量不确定度理论,计算不确定度分量和合成不确定度,得到离子色谱法检测饲料级氯化胆碱含量的扩展不确定度为0.816%。