银行规模与经理人激励——基于中国信息和不确定性环境的理论研究

本文基于委托代理激励理论,探讨不同规模银行中信息类别、不确定性信息与合同期限、政府行为等因素对经理人激励的影响.发现在中国这样的转型经济国家中,不确定性、非契约关系与政府行为使得银行规模与其竞争力和生存性的关系变得更加微妙.(1)相对大银行而言,小银行的发展面临更多的机会和风险;(2)长期合同下股权激励对于小银行经理人有着更为重要的意义;(3)客户经理的素质高低与一致性对于小银行激励效率的发挥至关重要;(4)我国小银行与地方政府天然密切的关系对其"软"信息获取作用很大,但同时也可能对其激励机制的长期有效性造成负面影响.     

Entrepreneurial rents and the theory of the firm

The creation of entrepreneurial rents occurs under conditions of uncertainty. Yet current theories of rent appropriation such as transactions cost theories of the firm focus their efforts primarily on how quasi-rents – rents that have already been created – are appropriated by parties to that exchange. Entrepreneurs face a dual challenge, that of creating entrepreneurial rents and appropriating some of these rents. Moreover, this challenge usually exists at a time when the entrepreneurial rents that might be created are not known or anticipatable. Indeed, entrepreneurs not only concern themselves with ensuring that they are able to appropriate at least some of the rents that might be eventually created but in fact they may not create any rents or potentially lose value. Understanding the dual nature of the rent creation and the rent appropriation problem has a variety of implications for the study of entrepreneurial organizations and generally for theory of the firm discussions.     

Enhancing capacity planning through forecasting: An integrated tool for maintenance of complex product systems

Despite the extensive amount of data generated and stored during the maintenance capacity planning process, Maintenance, Repair, and Overhaul (MRO) organizations have yet to explore their full potential in forecasting the required capacity to face future and unprecedented maintenance interventions. This paper explores the integration of time series forecasting capabilities in a tool for maintenance capacity planning of complex product systems (CoPS), intended to value data that is routinely generated and stored, but often disregarded by MROs. State space formulations with multiplicative errors for the simple exponential smoothing (SES), Holt’s linear method (HLM), additive Holt-Winters (AHW), and multiplicative Holt-Winters (MHW) are assessed using real data, comprised of 171 maintenance projects collected from a major Portuguese aircraft MRO. A state space formulation of the MHW, selected using the bias-corrected Akaike information criterion (AICc), is integrated in a Decision Support System (DSS) for capacity planning with probabilistic inference capabilities and used to forecast the workload probability distribution of a future and unprecedent maintenance intervention. The developed tool is validated by comparing forecasted values with workloads of a particular maintenance intervention and with a model simulating current forecasting practices employed by MROs.     

Preservation and exogenous uncertain future preferences

Summary. We extend the Beltratti, Chichilnisky and Heal's (1993) and (1998) continuous-time stochastic dynamic framework to analyze the optimal depletion of an asset whose consumption is irreversible, in the face of uncertainty about future preferences. Their model is rather general and so the results are general qualitative theorems. We show that in some interesting cases it is possible to solve their model analytically. The cases involve constant elasticity utility functions and the assumption of a Poisson process for the evolution of preferences. Received: September 13, 1999; revised version: November 23, 1999     

A strategic environmental assessment method for agricultural policy in the UK

There are a number of significant environmental impacts that arise from agricultural practices that may be influenced by policy. A Strategic Environmental Assessment Method (SEAM) is described which aims to assess the environmental impacts of agricultural policy and aid the development of more sustainable policy formulation. The method addresses the issues of selecting appropriate performance criteria and measurements, and makes use of effect-damage functions and targets to determine the significance of potential impacts in relation to sustainability. A set of profiles is produced, describing the environmental performance of a specific policy. A confidence assessment system (CAS) is also described which provides details about the quality of the assessment and areas of uncertainty. SEAM provides information about impacts in simple format that can be easily used in decision making. It can identify environmental trade-offs and provides a holistic view that is essential when making decisions that affect the environment.     

Annual Meeting of the Catholic Economic Association

This paper attempts to demonstrate that Keynes's practical writings on the crisis in the Lancashire cotton spinning industry in the 1920s were consistent with the 1930s theoretical conceptualisation of user costs in the General Theory. It is suggested that the key (common) link between these analyses is Keynes's concern with how uncertainty is distributed, in specific historical circumstances, between institutions at the levels of the firm, industry, the industry-financial institution interface, and the local and global economies. It is this concern which still has important, if not more, research and policy relevance today.     

Uncertainty and entry deterrence

Summary. We study a model where capacity installation by an incumbent firm serves to deter others from entering the industry. We argue that uncertainty about demand or costs forces the incumbent to choose a higher capacity level than it would under certainty. This higher level diminishes the attractiveness of deterrence (Proposition 1) and, therefore, the range of parameter values for which deterrence occurs (Proposition 2). Received: July 10, 1997; revised version: November 21, 1997     

The effects of acculturation and uncertainty avoidance on foreign resident choice for Korean foods

This study attempts to identify dining-out patterns among foreign residents in South Korea, examining the differences in foreign residents’ attitudes toward Korean foods and behavioral intentions to patronize Korean restaurants based on their acculturation and uncertainty avoidance levels. The results show that foreign residents in South Korea dine out frequently and intend to revisit Korean restaurants. However, the high acculturation group has a more positive attitude toward, better understanding of, and more preference for Korean foods than the low acculturation group. Satisfaction, revisiting, and recommendation intentions for Korean restaurants are higher among the high acculturation group than the low. The low uncertainty avoidance group spends more money for dining out than the high uncertainty avoidance group, who perceive Korean foods as expensive. Attitudes toward, understanding of, and preference for Korean foods, do not differ significantly between the two uncertainty avoidance groups; nor do satisfaction and behavioral intentions to Korean restaurants.     

Technology,science and American innovation

This article offers for consideration four propositions about business, government, and innovation in the post-World War Two United States, points which may have a wider resonance as well. They concern the long term role of continuous innovation, technology–science relationships, state-led problem setting for innovation, and the ‘permanent uncertainties’ that arise from Cold War-era technological advance. Each of these has implications for the practice of business history, for conceptualizing innovation, and for our understanding of post-war science–technology trajectories.     

Historical resources, uncertainty and preservation values: An application of option and optimal stopping models

State agencies and private historical organizations frequently acquire historical sites with unknown characteristics. In this paper, we provide two approaches to evaluating the preservation decision. In the first approach, we show that a historical site which is not permanently preserved provides citizens with a certain flexibility whose value can be measured as an option on the maximum between the current real estate value and the preservation value. In the second approach, we assume that the organization has an infinite planning horizon and chooses the optimal sale date. Using a contingent valuation estimate of the public's willingness to pay for preservation of a specific historical site and the real estate price, we provide simulation values of the preservation option value and the optimal stopping rule.