政府补贴促进制造业企业研发投入了吗?——基于资本结构的门槛效应研究

本文以2016~2018年沪深股市的制造业上市公司为研究样本,通过建立门槛效应模型,验证了政府补贴与企业研发投入的作用关系会随着资本结构的变化而变化。研究发现,政府补贴能够促进企业研发投入,并且在资本结构的调节作用下呈现三重门槛效应。进一步研究还发现,政府补贴对非国有企业研发投入的影响系数更高。因此,政府研发补贴政策需要综合考虑企业资金状况、企业性质,建立有效甄别机制,实施差异化补贴策略,加大对非国企补贴力度,拓宽中小企业融资渠道。     

The effect of alcohol consumption and contextual cues on the evaluation of new brands of alcoholic beverages at the POS

As per ELM, consumers' motivation and ability influence the route through which they process new information. A higher magnitude of these two factors leads to systematic information processing whereas a lower level leads to peripheral information processing. This research manipulated consumers' motivation by varying the contextual cues like bundle partner's brand image and functional relationship between the items whereas their ability was manipulated by alcohol administration to test its impact on the quality perception of a new brand of alcoholic beverage and the purchase intention of the bundle. A lower magnitude of motivation and ability increases the chances of adopting a categorisation approach to evaluate the new brand, and subsequently, the entire bundle. Therefore, a bundle's contextual cues dictate the evaluation of the new brand. Additionally, the alcohol priming effect leads to a greater propensity to try new brands of alcoholic beverages even if their quality is perceived to be inferior.     

The rebound effect on energy efficiency improvements in China’s transportation sector: A CGE analysis

Energy use is becoming more efficient due to technological innovations. We focused on the transportation sector in China to develop a national multisector computable general equilibrium (CGE) model for analyzing the rebound effect from an improvement of 10% in the energy efficiency. We compared the size of the energy rebound effect at both the macroeconomic and sectoral levels in different transportation modal subsectors, namely rail, road, water, and air travel. The findings showed that the magnitude of the rebound effect varies across the transportation modes. This is particularly true for the air transportation sector, which has an economy-wide rebound effect of 30.1% and an own-sector rebound effect of 74.6% because of a sharp increase in the export demand for air transport services. We also quantitatively evaluated the contribution of energy efficiency improvement in the transportation sector to China’s economic growth and carbon reductions and found a positive dividend effect on the economy as well as the environment. The modeling results suggest that improving overall transportation energy efficiency by 10% generates an economy-wide welfare gain of approximately 29 billion yuan, while 19 billion yuan are attributable to a more efficient road transportation subsector. Furthermore, to offset the effects of these mode-specific rebound effects, we simulated the effectiveness of different policies and solutions. These included economic instruments in the form of energy, environmental, and carbon taxes, household transport consumption structure adjustments, and energy structure adjustments. This study revealed that combining these sustainable development policies offers opportunities for economy-wide multisectoral improvements in energy savings, emissions reduction, and economic benefits.     

The effects of exchange rate pass-through and cost channel on price level: The case of fragile five countries

ABSTRACT

In this study, we investigated whether the exchange rate and the interest rate had an effect on the inflation rate in the fragile five countries between the years of 1996Q4 and 2015Q4. In this context, a model was created to estimate the effect of interest rate and exchange rate on the inflation rate. The methods used in the study take into account cross-section dependence and heterogeneity. As a result of the analysis, it was determined that there was an exchange-rate and interest-rate pass-through effect in the fragile five countries. Moreover, it was found out that the cost channel and price puzzle were effective in Indonesia and South Africa but were not effective in Turkey, Brasil and India.     

乡村振兴战略下要素国际流动的环境效果

乡村振兴战略和环境保护是当前经济工作中的重点。伴随经济全球化和“一带一路”战略的不断深入,生产要素国际流动日趋频繁。乡村振兴是国家重要发展战略,其重要抓手是实现农业现代化。因此,在小农户与现代农业共存的经济背景下,分析要素国际流动的环境效果,并根据现代农业发展的不同特征,对乡村振兴战略实施初始阶段和全面实施阶段分别进行分析后发现:在战略实施初始阶段,劳动流入加剧污染,反之改善环境;在战略全面实施阶段,资本流入改善环境,反之恶化环境。     

中国横向税收竞争如何影响雾霾污染——基于环保支出中介效应的研究

分税制改革以来，省级政府间税收竞争激化带来的环境污染问题正在逐步凸现。在此背景下，首先从理论层面分析了税收竞争、环保支出及雾霾污染的关系，并提出假说；其次建立空间杜宾模型测度了税收竞争对雾霾污染的直接效应、间接效应和总效应，并利用中介效应方法实证检验了税收竞争通过环保支出对雾霾污染的作用路径。研究结果表明，税收竞争显著加剧了本地区雾霾污染，但是其间接效应和总效应并不显著；此外，环保支出是税收竞争影响雾霾污染的一个主要中介变量。     

创新驱动产业转型升级研究——基于中国1998-2016年省域面板数据

为了探究创新驱动产业转型升级的作用机制,构建了创新投入与创新产出对产业转型升级内涵质量与外显效应的影响模型,并提出研究假设。基于中国1998-2016年省域面板数据,借助Eviews 9.0计量软件,采用固定效应模型进行实证研究。结果表明,所提出的研究假设均得到验证。创新产出对产业转型升级内涵质量具有积极影响,创新产出的各表征变量(专利授权数、技术市场合同成交金额、新产品销售收入)每增长1%,产业转型升级内涵质量的表征变量人均国内生产总值将提高0.014 8%～0.051 1%。创新投入对产业转型升级外显效应具有积极影响,创新投入的各表征变量(R&D经费内部支出、R&D人员全时当量)每增加1%,产业转型升级外显效应的表征变量产业结构层次系数将提高0.007 1%～0.010 5%。因此,创新能够驱动产业转型升级,但创新投入与创新产出对产业转型升级的影响机制并不相同。研究结果为创新驱动产业转型升级问题的研究提供了一个新的研究范式,对实施创新驱动发展战略、促进产业转型升级有借鉴意义。     

包容性金融发展与农村居民贫困减缓——基于全要素生产率视角的分析

本文用DEA—Malmquist指数法测算了全要素生产率指数，结合2006—2016年中国内地省际面板数据，基于全要素生产率视角，运用中介效应模型实证分析了包容性金融发展对农村居民贫困的影响。实证结果表明：（1）包容性金融发展能够通过全要素生产率的中介效应发挥减贫作用。（2）进一步的研究发现，包容性金融服务渗透度的提升对贫困的影响最为显著；同时，包容性金融发展可通过技术进步和效率提升作用来推动全要素生产率增长，进一步作用于贫困。（3）稳健性检验表明，我国东部与中西部地区包容性金融发展水平差异较大，对全要素生产率的提升乃至农村减贫的贡献表现出较大不平衡性。本文的政策建议为：首先，应持续推进包容性金融发展，充分发挥全要素生产率的中介效应，以更快实现2020年全面脱贫目标；其次，要继续加强农村金融基础设施建设，以实现金融 服务均等性，充分发挥金融减贫的优势；最后，要合理配置金融资源，注重地区间发展的公平性，以实现经济社会均衡发展。     

A spatial approach to the FDI-growth nexus in Spain: Dealing with the headquarters effect

This paper examines the effects of inward FDI on economic growth across the Spanish regions over the period 1996–2013, paying particular attention to the ‘headquarters effect’, namely that FDI is not always registered where it is effectively made but in the region in which the firm’s headquarters is located. By estimating a panel Spatial Durbin Model to allow for the detection of spatial spillovers, two main findings are reported. First, FDI does foster economic growth. Second, only when the headquarters effect is properly addressed do spatial spillovers arise. Hence, this effect is masking the impact of regional FDI spillovers on growth, which affects the reliability of the results and, consequently, FDI policies choice. Importantly, the results are: a) robust to the way of computing the headquarters effect; b) independent of the spatial weight matrix specification; and c) confirmed when splitting FDI into different industrial and service branches.