The evolution of State-Local balance sheets in the United States, 1953–2013

State and local debt in the United States more than doubled as a share of gross domestic product between 1953 and 2007. Using a historical accounting framework, we find that there is no straightforward relationship over time between state and local deficits and debt growth. We find that only 17 percent of the variation in aggregate state–local debt ratios comes from variation in the fiscal balance. This is especially true in the 1980s, the period of most rapid increase in state–local debt ratios. Before 1980, there were small but persistent deficits, but stable debt ratios. In the 1980s, state and local sectors shifted toward budget surpluses but saw rising debt ratios. This is explained by a faster pace of asset accumulation. Our results demonstrate the autonomy of balance sheet variables and suggest that changing debt ratios cannot be explained by real income and expenditure flows.     

信贷政策、银企关联与企业资本结构

本文从供给政策和银企关联两个层面出发,揭示信贷政策、银企关联对资本结构影响的理论机制,并提出3个理论假设,并以2003-2012年间360家上市公司为样本分别进行实证检验。结果表明,信贷供给和银企关联对资本结构具有显著的正向影响效应,并且两者之间存在显著的替代关系。鉴于此,必须加快发展和完善多层次资本市场,拓宽企业融资渠道,降低企业的融资成本;重视银企关联这一非正式制度安排对企业资本结构的作用,预防甚至减少违规现象的出现。     

国际金融危机的启示和反思

美国次贷危机引发的全球性金融危机,根源在于以华尔街为首的美欧金融体系违反了金融业3个基本原则：植根于工商产业,严格管控风险,杠杆率适度。我国金融体系要防止5个趋势：政策过度叠加,增加企业融资成本,“老大”意识蔓延,收入过高,服务意识不强。规避危机要力求4个平衡：贷款余额与GDP大体1∶1,证券市场市值与GDP大体1∶1,房地产总市值与GDP大体1∶1,国家主权债务加上社会保障支出与GDP大体1∶1。化解金融危机,不能依靠金融业自我循环,而要靠科技进步和发展实体经济。     

道德风险视域下职业经理人信用评价体系构建及测度：以重庆市为例

道德风险总是困扰着职业经理人群体,对企业发展产生不利影响。在实践中,作为建立健全社会信用体系的重要环节,职业经理人信用评价是防范职业经理人群体道德风险的基本思路和必要举措。本文基于马克思主义的理论启示,探索职业经理人三个维度的道德关系和道德风险,并围绕三个维度指向的个人信用、职业信用与职务信用等具体信用构成,阐述职业经理人信用评价内涵。进而,结合职业经理人信用评价内涵,构建系统应对道德风险的职业经理人信用评价体系,并以重庆为例进行实证测度。在此基础上,提出促进职业经理人道德意识与信用水平提升、实现新时代职业经理人群体高素质发展的对策建议。     

区块链技术对供应链金融信用风险的影响——基于PSM-DID方法的实证分析

区块链技术作为一项极具颠覆性的新兴技术,为供应链金融风险控制提供了创新性解决方案。基于2017—2020年供应链金融上市公司面板数据,运用倾向得分匹配-双重差分法（PSM-DID）实证分析区块链技术的应用对供应链金融信用风险的影响。研究发现,区块链技术能够显著降低供应链金融信用风险。因此,各企业可积极引入区块链技术,利用区块链的技术优势解决信用风险难题。     

Tax and the Crisis*

Did taxation play any role in precipitating the financial crisis? Are there lessons to be drawn for future tax reform priorities? This paper reviews the main channels by which tax effects might have been felt and which may require forceful attention. These include in particular the large tax biases favouring debt finance and, in some countries, investment in housing. The complexities of national tax codes, and the international interaction between them, have, moreover, encouraged the use of complicated financial instruments and international tax planning, reducing transparency. Tax distortions did not cause the crisis – in the sense that there are no obvious tax changes likely to have triggered it – but they may well have contributed by leading to higher leverage and more complexity than would otherwise have been the case. Most of these distortions have long been a source of concern, but dealing with them may be more important than previously supposed.     

Trade credit,collateral liquidation,and borrowing constraints

Assuming that firms’ suppliers are better able to extract value from the liquidation of assets in default and have an information advantage over other creditors, the paper derives six predictions on the use of trade credit. (1) Financially unconstrained firms (with unused bank credit lines) take trade credit to exploit the supplier's liquidation advantage. (2) If inputs purchased on account are sufficiently liquid, the reliance on trade credit does not depend on credit rationing. (3) Firms buying goods make more purchases on account than those buying services, while suppliers of services offer more trade credit than those of standardized goods. (4) Suppliers lend inputs to their customers but not cash. (5) Greater reliance on trade credit is associated with more intensive use of tangible inputs. (6) Better creditor protection decreases both the use of trade credit and input tangibility.     

Debt Maturity,Credit Risk,and Information Asymmetry: The Case of Municipal Bonds

Using a system of equations approach, this paper empirically tests the impact of credit quality, asset maturity, and other issuer and issue characteristics on the maturity of municipal bonds. We find that under conditions of lower information asymmetry that prevails in the municipal sector, higher‐rated bonds have longer maturities than low‐rated bonds. This result differs from that observed in the corporate sector. Overall, our results support the asset maturity hypothesis. In addition, our analysis finds that fundamentals matter. Issue features that provide additional protection or convenience to the investor tend to increase debt maturity.     

Earnings Management Surrounding New Debt Issues

We examine whether firms manage earnings before issuing bonds to achieve a lower cost of borrowing. We find significant income‐increasing earnings management prior to bond offerings. We also find that firms that manage earnings upward issue debt at a lower cost, after controlling for various bond issuer and issue characteristics. Our results are consistent with studies that report earnings management around equity issuance. The results indicate that, like equity holders, bondholders fail to see through the inflated earnings numbers in pricing new debt.     

对我国征信产品开发及创新的思考

随着计算机的普及和电信技术突飞猛进的发展,征信机构的信息产品也随之改进,开发出一些预测类信息产品,以及各种信用管理类软件。目前,我国已有的征信产品和服务与市场潜在需求还有巨大的缺口,征信产品开发和服务创新迫在眉睫。针对现阶段我国征信行业发展过程中征信市场供需不平衡、产品结构单一等问题,本文借鉴国外发达征信机构在征信产品开发上的经验,探索我国征信产品开发及创新的途径。