货币危机传染性研究述评

货币危机的传染性是第三代货币危机理论的核心思想之一。亚洲金融危机后，有关传染性的理论与实证研究不断丰富。本文试图就该问题已有的理论、实证研究工作进行梳理和评述。     

Private and Public Information in Self-fulfilling Currency Crises

Received November 9, 2000; revised version received July 24, 2001     

Balance Sheets, the Transfer Problem, and Financial Crises

In a world of high capital mobility, the threat of speculative attack becomes a central issue of macroeconomicpolicy. While first-generation and second-generation models of speculative attacks both have considerablerelevance to particular financial crises of the 1990s, a third-generation model is needed to make sense of thenumber and nature of the emerging market crises of 1997-98. Most of the recent attempts to produce such amodel have argued that the core of the problem lies in the banking system. This paper sketches another candidatefor third-generation crisis modeling—one that emphasizes two facts that have been omitted from formal modelsto date: the role of companies' balance sheets in determining their ability to invest, and that of capital flows inaffecting the real exchange rate.     

安全港规则及其在我国的适用

针对纳税人利用资本弱化进行避税的问题,从20世纪80年代起,许多发达国家通过建立资本弱化税制来规制这种避税行为。发达国家防止资本弱化避税的通行做法主要是采用安全港规则和正常交易规则两种。在经济全球化的条件下,我国的资本弱化避税问题同样不可避免。因此,借鉴防止资本弱化避税的安全港规则在发达国家的应用实践,对建立我国的资本弱化税制是十分必要的。     

“两税合一”对台湾上市公司股利税资本化的影响

本文以1994～2001年两税合一税制实施前后的台湾上市公司为样本，运用Harris-Kemsley股利税后收益模型，探讨所得税制改革对权益投资者收益的影响，以及两税合一税制的实施对股利税资本化的影响。实证结果表明：两税合一税制实施前，台湾上市公司的末分配盈余与其股利税资本化程度负相关，即股利税资本化效果存在；两税合一税制实施后，台湾上市公司的股利税资本化程度低于两税合一前的程度。     

东亚货币合作的层次、障碍和中国的对策

随着世界经济全球化和区域经济一体化，东亚各国货币合作的愿望日益高涨，东亚区域货币合作体系初见端倪。、但由于东亚地区历史、政治、经济、文化的特殊性，东亚货币合作的道路上依然障碍重重．需要分层次、分步骤地稳妥推进。大势所趋之下中国应积极应对，大力推动东亚货币合作的进程。     

An Intertemporal International Asset Pricing Model: Theory and Empirical Evidence

We extend Campbell's (1993) model to develop an intertemporal international asset pricing model (IAPM). We show that the expected international asset return is determined by a weighted average of market risk, market hedging risk, exchange rate risk and exchange rate hedging risk. These weights sum up to one. Our model explicitly separates hedging against changes in the investment opportunity set from hedging against exchange rate changes as well as exchange rate risk from intertemporal hedging risk. A test of the conditional version of our intertemporal IAPM using a multivariate GARCH process supports the asset pricing model. We find that the exchange rate risk is important for pricing international equity returns and it is much more important than intertemporal hedging risk.     

美国外汇衍生品监管权限的演变及借鉴

本文阐述了美国外汇衍生品市场的监管体制,介绍了与外汇衍生品监管相关的法案和判例,对场外和场内外汇衍生产品监管的区别进行了比较,在此基础上,分析了我国目前开展外汇衍生品及其监管现状.本文建议,未来我国货币衍生产品的监管要注意从国家层次立法和明确监管部门的职责划分.     

松货币紧财政:我国宏观经济政策组合的现实选择

财政政策和货币政策必须合理搭配,方可以发挥其政策效应.当前我国的经济运行已经出现重大转折,经济发展的中期上升趋势已经确立,原有行之有效的财政和货币政策组合也因此难以适应实际需要,必须及时进行相应的调整.     

Political Uncertainty, Financial Crisis and Market Volatility

This paper examines the impact of political uncertainty on financial crises using a panel of 22 emerging markets. By examining political election cycles, we find that eight out of nine of the financial crises happened during the periods of political election and transition. Using a combination of probit and switching regression analysis, we find that there is a significant relationship between political election and financial crisis after controlling for differences in economic and financial conditions. We observe increased market volatility during political election and transition periods. Our results suggest that political uncertainty could be a major contributing factor to financial crisis. Thus, politics does matter in emerging markets. Since the odds of financial crisis tend to be much larger during the political election periods, institutional investors should take that into account when making emerging market investment during those time periods.