印度资本项目可兑换的经验与启示

印度自1991年以来积极推进资本项目可兑换。经过20年的实践,印度迅速融入国际金融市场,有效抵御了金融危机的冲击,资本项目可兑换取得明显成效,主要特点：一是采取渐进、审慎的方式推进资本项目可兑换;二是坚持控制的主动性和必要时恢复管制的灵活性;三是深化金融改革,为资本项目可兑换创造良好的外部条件;四是注重通过宏观调控手段,优化资本流动结构,解决资本流动中产生的问题;五是加强短期资本流动管制,防止短期资本流动对经济的冲击;六是加强房地产资本管制,防止国际投机资本引发房地产风险。     

Financial stress,sovereign debt and economic activity in industrialized countries: Evidence from dynamic threshold regressions

We analyze how the impact of a change in the sovereign debt-to-GDP ratio on economic growth depends on the level of debt, the stress level on the financial market and the membership in a monetary union. A dynamic growth model is put forward demonstrating that debt affects macroeconomic activity in a non-linear manner due to amplifications from the financial sector. Employing dynamic country-specific and dynamic panel threshold regression methods, we study the non-linear relation between the growth rate and the debt-to-GDP ratio using quarterly data for sixteen industrialized countries for the period 1981Q1-2013Q2. We find that the debt-to-GDP ratio has impaired economic growth primarily during times of high financial stress and only for countries of the European Monetary Union and not for the stand-alone countries in our sample. A high debt-to-GDP ratio by itself does not seem to necessarily negatively affect growth if financial markets are calm.     

The euro exchange rate during the European sovereign debt crisis – Dancing to its own tune?

This paper studies the determinants of the euro exchange rate volatility during the European sovereign debt crisis, allowing a role for macroeconomic fundamentals, policy actions and the public debate by policy makers. It finds that the euro exchange rate mainly danced to its own tune, with a particularly low explanatory power for macroeconomic fundamentals. The findings of the paper also suggest that financial markets might have been less reactive to the public debate by policy makers than previously feared. Still, there are instances where exchange rate volatility increased in response to news, such as on days when several politicians from AAA-rated countries went public with negative statements, suggesting that communication by policy makers at times of crisis should be cautious about triggering undesirable financial market reactions.     

Government as borrower of first resort

Optimal government bond supply is examined under asymmetric information and safe asset scarcity. Corporations issue junk debt when demand for safe debt is high since uninformed investors then migrate to risky overheated debt markets. Uninformed demand stimulates informed speculation, driving debt prices toward fundamentals, encouraging pooling at high leverage. As borrower of first resort, government can issue bonds, siphoning off uninformed demand for risky corporate debt, reducing wasteful informed speculation. Government bonds eliminate pooling at high leverage or improve risk sharing in such equilibria. Optimal government bond supply is increasing in demand for safe assets and non-monotonic in marginal Q.     

The Greek economic crisis: causes and alternative policies

The Greek economic crisis is primarily structural and the result of an international economic impasse that developed in 2007, with devastating implications for the struggling peripheral economies of Europe. This article suggests that falling profitability led to the stagnation of profits, which in turn discouraged new investment, decreased production and increased unemployment. The resulting recessionary economic environment, in conjunction with the mounting public debt and the austerity policies imposed on the Greek economy by the so-called ‘troika’ of creditors in 2010, has decimated the Greek economy even further, causing one of the worst economic crises since the Second World War. The article also provides some broad guidelines for an alternative economic policy.     

Net Equity and Debt Flows to Emerging Market and Developing Economies in the Post-Crisis Era

We investigate the determinants of net equity and debt flows into 60 emerging and developing countries during 1986–2012, with a special focus on the period following the onset of the global financial crisis (GFC). Our results controlling for endogeneity show that net equity flows to emerging markets were mostly influenced by global risk factors, while net debt flows were affected by country-specific factors. We further distinguish the factors that were more pronounced in determining net portfolio flows to emerging markets since the GFC. The US real interest rate had significant spillover effects on net equity flows after the GFC. An increase in country’s domestic credit attracted net debt inflows before the GFC, while it was associated with net equity outflows after the GFC. We also find that capital controls moderated net debt flows since the GFC.     

Cyclicality of taxes and external debt

In their work, Vegh and Vuletin have shown that statutory tax rates are acyclical in developed economies and procyclical in developing ones. This article extends their analysis by checking the interaction of statutory tax rates with countries’ external public debt. In general, we found that the value added tax rates are changed procyclically in both developed and developing countries (i.e. taxes are raised in bad times and reduced in good times). However, when the external debt is high, in the developing countries the procyclicality increases, while the opposite result holds for developed economies. This pattern occurs mainly in times of recession, when the need for loans is the highest. Although we found that there was a reduction in procyclicality after the 2000s, these findings pose a challenge to policy-makers, who should think of ways of dealing with lack of foreign funds in difficult times.     

Credit derivatives: international developments and lessons for India

Credit derivatives have been popular instruments for hedging of credit risks by banks and financial institutions. The notional value outstanding of credit default swap contracts, a type of credit derivative most in use, increased from US$6.4 trillion in December 2004 to US$57.89 trillion in December, 2007. However, this instrument, which was once ‘apple of the eye’ of market players, lost its sheen in the wake of the sub-prime crisis when it was perceived to have played a major role in igniting the crisis and spreading it across the global financial system. This article presents how this came about and the after thought of the regulators of developed countries in regulating these instruments. It then looks at what lessons India can draw from the experience of the Western nations before considering introduction of credit derivatives in the Indian markets.     

Debt problems,home‐leaving,and boomeranging: A register‐based perspective on economic consequences of moving away from parental home

This article analyses the development of financial problems after leaving one's parental home, and considers how financial problems are associated with likelihood of boomeranging (i.e., adult children returning to parental home). The 9‐year follow‐up study focused on a nationally representative sample of Finnish young people between the ages of 15 and 25 who moved out from their parental home between 2006 and 2009 (n = 9,196). The measure of debt problems was based on monthly data on debt enforcement, a legal matter which may bring serious consequences for the debtors. The primary within‐individual, longitudinal analyses showed that debt problems increased directly after leaving parental home. Education and family background were significant predictors of debt problems in the four years after leaving parental home. Early leavers had significantly more debt problems than later leavers. Debt problems were associated with a higher likelihood of moving back to parental home. The results imply that it is important to support economic decision‐making during early adulthood.     

The effectiveness of the ECB’s unconventional monetary policy: Comparative evidence from crisis and non-crisis Euro-area countries

During the European financial crisis, the European Central Bank implemented a series of unconventional monetary policy measures. We argue that these programs lowered the bond yield spreads of Euro-area countries. This hypothesis is tested using pooled OLS estimations and two different datasets: monetary policy event dummies and the purchase volumes of the Securities Markets Programme (SMP). Overall, we find significantly negative effects on bond yield spreads for both datasets, leading us to accept the hypothesis. While the OMT reduces the spreads of both crisis and non-crisis countries, LTROs and the lowering of the deposit rate to 0 percent are mainly effective in non-crisis countries. The SMP lowers the spreads of crisis countries, but it has the opposite effect on non-crisis countries. This converse effect is explained by the risk that increasingly accumulates on the ECB’s balance sheet through the SMP and that way constitutes a fiscal risk for non-crisis countries. The results are confirmed by pooled OLS estimations that measure the effect of unconventional monetary policy on central government debt.