Democracy and Growth: Alternative Approaches

This article focuses on two previously unexamined aspects of the relationship between economic growth and democracy. First, the growth experiences of countries that experience significant changes in democracy are examined directly. Countries that democratize are found to grow faster than a priori similar countries, while countries that become less democratic grow more slowly than comparable countries. These differences do not seem to be due to differences in education or investment levels. Second, regression tree analysis suggests that democracy, along with initial income and literacy, contributes to the identification of regimes of countries facing similar aggregate production functions.     

我国外汇储备增长与人民币升值关系的实证分析

本文利用我国2005年7月-2007年6月的月度数据，通过协整分析、误差修正模型和格兰杰因果检验对外汇储备增长与人民币升值之间的关系进行了实证研究。结果表明，汇率形成机制改革对于释放两者之间弹性，维持缓和的、相互促进的长期稳定均衡关系起到显著的效果，继续稳步推进人民币汇率市场化改革将是明智之举。     

Into the Mussa puzzle: monetary policy regimes and the real exchange rate in a small open economy

Industrial countries moving from fixed to floating exchange rate regimes experience dramatic rises in the variability of the real exchange rate. This evidence, forcefully documented by Mussa [Nominal exchange regimes and the behavior of real exchange rates: evidence and implications. Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy 25 (1986) 117], is a puzzle because it is hard to reconcile with the assumption of flexible prices. This paper lays out a dynamic general equilibrium model of a small open economy that combines nominal price rigidity with a systematic behavior of monetary policy able to approximate a continuum of exchange rate regimes. A version of the model with complete exchange rate pass-through is broadly consistent with Mussa’s findings. Most importantly, this holds independently of the underlying source of fluctuations in the economy, stressing the role of the nominal exchange rate regime per se in affecting the variability of the real exchange rate. However, only a model featuring incomplete exchange rate pass-through can account for a broader range of exchange rate statistics. Finally there exist ranges of values for either the degree of openness or the elasticity of substitution between domestic and foreign goods for which the baseline model is also consistent with the empirical insensitivity of output volatility to the type of exchange rate regime, as documented by Baxter and Stockman [Journal of Monetary Economics 23 (1989) 377].     

Return prediction and stock selection from unidentified historical data

The experimental approach was applied to test the value of historical return series in technical prediction. Return sequences were randomly drawn cross-sectionally and over time from S&P500 records and participants were asked to predict the 13th realization from 12 preceding returns. The hypothesis that predictions (nominal or real) are randomly assigned to historical sequences is rejected in permutation tests, and the best-stock portfolios by experimental predictions significantly outperform the worst-stock portfolios in joint examination of mean return and volatility. The participants dynamically adjust their predictions to the observed series and switch from momentum riding to contrarian extrapolation when recent trends get extreme. The implicit tuning of predictions to specific series captures variabilities that could not be inferred by schematic statistical forecasting.     

构筑和完善企业集团监督制约机制

企业已经有多种多样的监督，但缺乏统一的平台和力量的整合。如果不能迅速、及时、有效地整合监督资源和力量，“五不行为”导致的国有资产流失将无法遏制。要通过健全股东监督体系、组织监督体系、民主监督体系和经营者的自我监督，并用有效方式强化股东监督，构筑和完善企业监督制约机制。     

公共选择视角下的反垄断法农业豁免制度研究

反垄断法的农业豁免制度是农业市场领域各方利益主体竞争和平衡的结果,基于农业生产的自然原子式结构和农产品本身的特性,农业豁免是各个国家的反垄断法普遍接受的特殊制度。根据公共选择理论,农业豁免实质是各方主体在追寻自我利益的基础上,在利益集团的参与下,针对农业领域的特殊性作出的协调措施,其基本的制度价值是在维护竞争和允许监管的双重体制下的实现农民利益的维护和促进经济发展的根本目标。     

浙江外贸发展的轨迹特点与动因探析

浙江外贸增速迅猛，长期存在贸易顺差，其发展轨迹具有地域性和集群性的特点。究其原因，浙江外贸在制度安排、市场主体、交易方式和产业组织形式等方面有其独特之处，“浙江外贸现象”是民营企业追逐利润的必然结果。     

对我国个人所得税税制设计的改进建议

我国现行个人所得税的税制设计,在一定程度上制约着其功能的发挥。应从简化税制,改进计征模式,合理确定扣除标准等方面对其做进一步改进。     

The Welfare Economics of a Biofuel Tax Credit and the Interaction Effects with Price Contingent Farm Subsidies

A framework is developed to analyze the effects of a biofuel consumer tax exemption and the interaction effects with a price contingent farm subsidy. Ethanol prices rise above the gasoline price by the amount of the tax credit. Corn farmers gain directly while gasoline consumers only gain from any reduction in world oil prices due to the extra ethanol production. Domestic oil producers lose. Historically, the intercept of the ethanol supply curve is above the gasoline price. Hence, part of the tax credit is redundant and represents "rectangular" deadweight costs that dwarf triangular deadweight cost measures of traditional farm subsidies.     

Has the Chinese currency been undervalued?

China's trade surplus reached a record $102 billion in 2005 while the US trade deficit of $717 billion accounted for 5.8% of US Gross Domestic Product in the same year. US policy makers claim China's currency is undervalued about 25 to 35% against the US dollar and they blame China for holding the value of the RMB weak to keep Chinese products competitive on prices in international markets. Given the unique situation in China, where the capital account is only partially convertible and the economy has been growing at an annual average rate of 10% over the last two decades, this paper empirically examines the magnitude of the exchange rate misalignment of China's RMB against the US dollar by using the Behavioral Equilibrium Exchange Rate (BEER) and Permanent Equilibrium Exchange Rate (PEER) models. Our results show that the RMB was undervalued by approximately 15% from 2002:Q2 to 2003:Q4; however, it is interesting to note that while the RMB was overvalued during 1997:Q4–2002:Q2, China experienced a huge trade surplus during that period.