The Interaction of the IFRS 9 Expected Loss Approach with Supervisory Rules and Implications for Financial Stability

This paper examines the interaction of the International Financial Reporting Standard (IFRS) 9 expected credit loss (ECL) model with supervisory rules and discusses potential implications for financial stability in the European Union. Compared to the incurred loss approach of IAS 39, the IFRS 9 ECL model incorporates earlier and larger impairment allowances and is more closely aligned with regulatory expected loss. The earlier recognition of credit losses will reduce the build-up of loss overhangs and the overstatement of regulatory capital. In addition, extended disclosure requirements are likely to contribute to more effective market discipline. Through these channels IFRS 9 might enhance financial stability. However, due to the reliance on point-in-time estimates of the main input parameters (probability of default and loss given default) IFRS 9 ECLs will increase the volatility of regulatory capital for some banks. Furthermore, the ECL model provides significant room for managerial discretion. Bank supervisors might play an important role in the implementation of IFRS 9, but too much supervisory intervention bears the risk of introducing a prudential bias into loan loss accounting that compromises the integrity of financial reporting. Overall, the potential benefits of the standard will crucially depend on its proper and consistent application across jurisdictions.     

人民币升值影响我国企业竞争力实证研究

2005年7月汇率改革以来,人民币持续升值,对我国外向型企业的进出口有较大影响。尤其是对作为国民经济支柱产业的汽车行业影响深远,而汽车零部件的进出口额远远多于汽车整车,因此本文选择41家汽车零部件上市公司作为研究对象,通过对相关的面板数据进行检验和回归分析,从而研究人民币升值对于企业竞争力的影响。研究结论表明,人民币升值对企业盈利能力以及营运能力有显著正影响,而对企业成长能力没有显著影响。     

非对称信息下再制造产品质量控制决策研究

本文研究了风险中性的单再制造商与单销售商构建的二级闭环供应链模型,基于博弈论和委托代理理论。在不同回收水平下,再制造商都存在单边道德风险,销售商根据影响再制造商质量预防水平的因素来引导再制造商的决策,并制定激励契约来降低再制造商的道德风险,以达到闭环供应链协调的目的。研究表明：回收水平和质量检测水平均影响再制造商的质量预防水平,回收水平同质量预防水平呈正相关,质量检测水平同质量预防水平呈负相关;在不同回收水平下,通过销售商质量检测控制后,闭环供应链收益增加,同时求得最优控制水平和最优契约金额。在最后,通过算例分析验证了契约的有效性。     

基于百度指数的碳交易市场波动率的实证研究

碳交易市场波动率研究主要基于成交量数据对收益率GARCH效应的解释作用。在互联网时代可以有更新更为有效的方法来衡量碳交易市场的波动性。基于“碳交易”词条的百度指数,以湖北碳交易市场中的收益率为样本,本文通过对比使用引入成交量和搜索量的IGARCH（1,1）模型,实证研究发现传统的量价方程的确没有解释力,而百度指数可以对收益率的GARCH效应做出部分合理的解释,这可以在某种程度上反映湖北碳交易市场的交易信息流。     

Asymmetric stabilizing impact of international reserves

This article studies international reserves’ nominal exchange rate stabilizing impact in emerging markets and developing countries, with a particular focus on its nonlinearity and asymmetry across different states of the economy. Using the fixed-effects and dynamic panel threshold models, we find the reserves to short-term debt threshold ratio after which the marginal stabilizing effect of reserves begins to fall during tranquil times. Such diminishing returns, however, do not appear to exist even at the excessive level of reserves during the global financial crisis, partly justifying precautionary demand for international reserves. These results call for extending reserve pooling or swap arrangements to enhance efficiency of reserve management by holding adequate, rather than excess, international reserves with an access to emergency lending during the crisis.     

The association between the severity of chronic kidney disease and medical costs among patients with type 2 diabetes

Aims: Examine healthcare costs across chronic kidney disease (CKD) stages for US patients with type 2 diabetes (T2D).

Materials and methods: IQVIA Real World Data Adjudicated Claims linked electronic medical records and insurance claims from January 1, 2012 through March 31, 2017 were used for this retrospective study. Adults diagnosed with T2D and comorbid CKD were included. General linear models incorporating splines were constructed, and information from these regressions were used to inform the relationship between medical costs and CKD. Multivariable analyses controlled for patient characteristics, vital signs, general health, prior medication use, prior visit to specialists, index A1c, and year of index date.

Results: There were 6,645 individuals who met the study criteria. Results generally indicate sharp increases in annual total medical costs and non-drug medical costs in the 1?year post-period for patients with Stage 4 or 5 CKD (estimated glomerular filtration rate [eGFR]?≤?30?mL/min/1.73 m²) with each 1 point reduction in eGFR from 30 associated with an increase of $1,870 in all-cause total medical costs (p?<?0.0001) and $1,805 of all-cause non-drug medical costs (p?<?0.0001). Similarly, each point decline below 30?mL/min was associated annual cost increases of $1,701 for CKD-related total medical costs, $1,695 for CKD-related non-drug medical costs, $173 for diabetes-related medical costs, and $187 for diabetes-related non-drug medical costs (all p?<?0.0001).

Limitations: The investigation included only patients with medical insurance and laboratory test results, and results may not be generalizable to all T2D patients with CKD. The methodology allowed us to determine associations, not causation, and potential confounders, such as duration of diabetes, diet, exercise, or social support, could not be assessed.

Conclusions: Results indicate there are sharp and significant increases in medical costs among T2D patients with Stage 4 and 5 CKD compared to those with earlier stages of CKD.     

基于气候区划的中国建成区绿地率 区域差异研究

气候是影响城市绿地的基础性自然因素,定量研究气候对建成区绿地率的影响,利于合理调控城市绿地建设。以中国县级市及以上城市为样本,综合运用标准差、变异系数和锡尔系数等方法,探究1996—2015年不同气候区划建成区绿地率区域差异状况。结果表明：1)从发展水平看,不同气候区划具显著差异,热带高于温带,湿润、半湿润区高于半干旱、干旱区,其中,热带与湿润区、半湿润区城市重合度高,是气候优势区位;2)从差异度看,不同气候区划差异度具明显区别,温带差异度高于热带,干旱、半干旱区高于湿润、半湿润区;3)从差异分解看,温度带间建成区绿地率不平衡对全国总差异的影响度大于干湿区间,温度带间差异是我国总体差异的主要原因。以期为揭示气候对城市绿地建设水平的影响作用提供理论依据。     

信贷政策、银企关联与企业资本结构

本文从供给政策和银企关联两个层面出发,揭示信贷政策、银企关联对资本结构影响的理论机制,并提出3个理论假设,并以2003-2012年间360家上市公司为样本分别进行实证检验。结果表明,信贷供给和银企关联对资本结构具有显著的正向影响效应,并且两者之间存在显著的替代关系。鉴于此,必须加快发展和完善多层次资本市场,拓宽企业融资渠道,降低企业的融资成本;重视银企关联这一非正式制度安排对企业资本结构的作用,预防甚至减少违规现象的出现。     

中国建成区绿地率区域差异的多尺度分析

建成区绿地率区域差异具有显著的尺度依赖性,基于多尺度视角对其进行分析、综合研判不同尺度间关系,可更确切且全面地揭示其特征,为探寻最佳研究尺度,以及制定兼具差异化和协调性的城市绿地建设决策提供科学依据。综合运用标准差、变异系数、锡尔指数和尺度方差等方法,将地带、省、市3个尺度纳入统一的分析框架,探究1996—2015年中国建成区绿地率区域差异。1)差异测度研究表明,自1996年以来,我国建成区绿地率区域差异在3个尺度上长期存在,均呈现缩小趋势,并表现出明显的尺度效应。2)尺度方差分解结果显示,建成区绿地率尺度方差及构成由大到小依次为市级、省级、地带级,即尺度越小,其尺度方差越大,对区域差异的贡献份额越大。     

超增长的中国储蓄率研究

我国储蓄的持续超常增长已经引起政府当局及学者们的广泛关注。本文通过对我国影响储蓄率的因素进行分析,从一个侧面对这一异常现象产生进行了阐述。最后针对分析结果,提出了若干政策建议。