Trust Me! I am a European Central Banker

In the aftermath of the financial crisis, the European Central Bank (ECB) has experienced an unprecedented deterioration in the level of trust. This raises the question as to what factors determine trust in central banking. We use a unique cross‐country data set that includes a rich set of socioeconomic characteristics and supplement it with variables meant to reflect a country's macroeconomic condition. We find that besides individual socioeconomic characteristics, macroeconomic conditions play a crucial role in the trust‐building process. Our results suggest that agents are boundedly rational in the trust‐building process and that current ECB market operations may even be beneficial for trust in the ECB in the long run.     

Housing and the Macroeconomy: Inflation and the Financial Accelerator

Three themes connecting housing and the macroeconomy are discussed. First, evidence is presented for the property market as one of the drivers of U.S. consumer price inflation. Second, key drivers of house prices are explained to account for the remarkable diversity of international experience. Finally, three potential links between housing, credit, and the financial accelerator are discussed. These are the consumption channel, the investment channel, and feedback between bad loans and risk‐spreads via the financial system—and how institutional differences between countries can explain the presence, absence and magnitudes of these linkages.     

Saving the Euro: Mitigating Financial or Trade Spillovers?

This paper analyzes through what channels the euro crisis affected firms and the efficacy of policies to mitigate the crisis. It analyzes stock price responses for 3,045 nonfinancial firms in 16 countries to four key policy events during 2010–11. Using precrisis benchmarks, it separates financial effects from trade effects and examines how bank and trade linkages propagated shocks. It finds that policy measures affected financially dependent firms more, particularly in creditor countries with greater bank exposure to peripheral euro countries, in statistically and economically significant ways. Trade linkages with peripheral countries played little role, although euro movements meant some differential effects.     

航空经济发展的金融需求分析--基于“供给领先”和“需求跟随”的金融发展理论

帕特里克论证了金融体系在提高存量资本和新增资本配置效率、加速资本积累中的作用,提出了“供给领先”和“需求跟随”的金融发展理论。基于产品生命周期理论,我们将航空经济的发展阶段界定为形成期、发展期和成熟期。在形成期,金融支持模式主要是由政府主导的“供给领先型”模式,金融需求主要有基础设施建设资金需求,航空产业长远发展的资金需求,吸引企业入驻资金需求,以及已入驻企业的研发资金需求;在成长期,“需求跟随型”金融支持开始占据主导,主要的金融需求有生产、生活设施建设的资金需求,企业规模化生产的资金需求,航空型人才培训的资金需求;在成熟期,以市场主导的“供给领先型”金融支持又将航空经济发展推向一个更高的阶段,此时的金融需求主要包括企业转型升级的资金需求,企业技术创新的资金需求,以及保障企业长远发展的资金需求。     

我国民营企业贷款的距离影响因素分析

选取我国2011年沪深两市 A股的628家民营上市企业的贷款数据为样本进行实证分析发现：银行贷款量与银行到企业之间距离具有显著的负相关关系,说明银企距离是制约我国民营企业贷款的一个重要影响因素;地区金融发展与企业的银行贷款量之间具有显著的负相关的关系,说明了竞争关系对企业外地银行贷款的抑制作用不是表现在区域的银行网点的竞争,而是地区的金融发展。因此,应重视银企距离,加大地区金融发展。     

利益相关者关系影响公司财务绩效持续性的实证研究

基于123家沪深 A 股上市公司的样本数据,运用时间序列自回归模型;考量卓越与不良绩效企业股东、管理人员、员工、消费者、债权人和政府与财务绩效持续性的关系。结果表明,良好的利益相关者关系与卓越财务绩效的持续性正相关,与不良财务绩效的持续性负相关。不同的利益相关者对财务绩效持续性的影响存在差异,消费者和员工是保证卓越财务绩效持续性的最重要因素,也是陷入财务困境的企业实现业绩转向的关键推动力量。当企业经历财务困境时,股东的积极作用表现突出。     

农村资金互助社发展与监管问题探析

作为近年来出现的一种新型农村金融组织,农村资金互助社曾被寄予“弥补农村金融真空”和“从最基层推动我国金融体制改革”的双重厚望。然而,7年多时间过去了,全国2万多家农村资金互助社中只有49家获得法定部门银监会颁发的牌照。作为农村金融市场拾遗补阙的农村资金互助社,与农村熟人社会、新型农村专业合作组织有天然的匹配性。进一步规范发展农村资金互助社,监管组织制度改革,必须“另起炉灶、分类监管、四个加强”。同时,出台相应的激励优惠政策,鼓励其规范健康发展。     

对我国金融机构资产负债表、杠杆率与金融稳定的思考

金融机构的资金来源方式、资金运用方式会影响金融机构本身和金融体系的杠杆率与稳定性。若金融机构或金融体系主要通过金融市场融资,资金运用主要集中于金融资产,并且通过金融资产进行再融资的规模不受限制,那么面对宏观经济或金融市场的冲击,这种类型的金融机构或金融体系的杠杆率会快速下降,在其资产和负债的期限错配较严重时,资金链条就会断裂,引发系统性金融风险。通过分析不同的资金来源和运用方式对金融机构杠杆率产生的影响,并结合历史上数次金融危机的教训,针对杠杆率快速下降时如何维护金融稳定提出了政策建议。     

Financial density selection

We propose and study simple but flexible methods for density selection of skewed versions of the two most popular density classes in finance, the exponential power distribution and the t distribution. For the first type of method, which simply consists of selecting a density by means of an information criterion, the Schwarz criterion stands out since it performs well across density categories, and in particular when the DGP is normal. For the second type of method, general-to-specific density selection, the simulations suggest that it can improve the recovery rate in predictable ways by changing the significance level. This is useful because it enables us to increase (reduce) the recovery rate of non-normal densities by increasing (reducing) the significance level, if one wishes to do so. The third type of method is a generalisation of the second type, such that it can be applied across an arbitrary number of density classes, nested or non-nested. Finally, the methods are illustrated in an empirical application.     

中国金融人才培养的文献统计研究--基于中国知网2006-2012年学术期刊的数据分析

2006年中国金融业全面开放以来,国内就金融人才培养研究进行了积极的探索和改革。为系统反映2006年以来国内金融人才培养的研究现状,以进一步提高我国金融人才培养水平,笔者以中国知网CNKI期刊全文数据库为基础,系统检索了2006—2012年与金融人才培养相关的学术论文,并进行了文献统计分析。研究表明,我国金融人才培养研究的研究方向正在逐步细化、研究视野日益宽广。但学者们的研究方法仍以宏观定性分析为主,今后需加强微观研究与宏观研究的结合,定量研究与定性研究的结合,研究深度也应进一步深化。